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The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2020 season with high hopes of winning the NFC North Division title on the heels of a 2019 campaign, which saw them finish 10-6 and reach the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The team will still be led by Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Adam Thielen, however, they recently traded away their leading target earner in Stefon Diggs. This means the offense will likely flow through different avenues to make up for the departing 94 targets he garnered.
For this reason, Irv Smith Jr. makes for an interesting sleeper candidate heading into 2020. Smith was selected in the second round of the 2019 draft and had an immediate impact on the Vikings' offense, which is unique because tight ends often struggle mightily in their rookie season. He even managed to go tit-for-tat with Kyle Rudolph, who has been the top tight end in Minnesota for nearly the entire decade. Further improvement in 2020 should mean Smith takes over as the leading target earner at tight end.
Let's take a deeper look into Smith's 2019 season, as well as some of his advanced metrics, to show exactly why he could become a standout sleeper heading into 2020.
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A New Tight End Emerging in Minneapolis?
Irv Smitj Jr. had a solid rookie season for a tight end in 2019 by hauling in 36 of his 47 targets for 311 yards and two scores. This nearly matched Kyle Rudolph in targets (48), receptions (39), and yards (367), but trailed significantly in touchdowns as Rudolph finished with six and was a clear red-zone threat. As a rookie, Smith showed a lot of promise in his advanced metrics, especially for a tight end. He accounted for 8.3% of all Vikings' air yards, which ranked him in the top 28% of the league at tight end. This is a big reason he was known for making big plays as he hauled in five receptions of 20-plus yards, which is a number Rudolph has reached only four times in his nine-year career.
Smith also showed relatively solid hands in 2019 as noted by his 75% catch rate. This was good enough to rank him in the top 27% of the league and could certainly increase in his second year as he develops more of a rapport with Kirk Cousins. Smith showed speed in 2019 as well, which was noted by his 4.63 40-yard dash time. This ranked him in the top 22% among tight ends and is a skill set that cannot be taught and could lead to even more big plays in 2020.
Smith garnered 11% of the Vikings targets in 2019, which put him in the top 22% in the league amongst the position. This is important when you consider the departure of Stefon Diggs. Diggs had 94 targets in 2019 and has since been traded to Buffalo. There is no one in Minnesota to vacuum up those additional targets except for first-round draft pick, Justin Jefferson. Jefferson will certainly grab some of the departed targets, but rookie wide receivers tend to struggle in the first couple years of their career and Cousins should feel more comfortable getting Smith involved in the passing game early on in 2020.
The current ADP for Smith is 301 and he is being taken as the 28th tight end off the board. This means he is not being drafted in 12-team leagues unless the league is incredibly deep. He makes for a solid selection in the final round of your draft as a potential "wait and see" bench tight end or someone to add to the top of your waiver wire watch list. He also makes for a solid buy in dynasty leagues as his value should increase in the coming seasons.
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