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We continue with our next edition of "Is It Legit?" to discuss another surprising breakout performer from the 2018 MLB season in order to assess his value heading into 2019.
With so many players seemingly becoming fantasy baseball darlings overnight, it can be challenging to sift through the multiple hype trains and determine which players are actually expected to produce similar, or even better, numbers the following year.
Yankees first baseman Luke Voit was this year's September standout, a player who bursts onto the scene at the end of the year and often helps lead teams to their fantasy championships. These players are often heavily overvalued the following year, with some recency bias ballooning their perceived value. Voit will no doubt garner plenty of attention next season, particularly if he is pencilled in as New York's starting first baseman. And while hitting in that park and in that lineup is no doubt a fantasy haven, it is worth exploring if his dominant finish to the season will hold up for a full season in 2019.
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Can Voit Repeat in 2019?
There's no other way to look at it: Luke Voit absolutely crushed the ball in a Yankees uniform last year. After coming over in a midseason trade, Voit made his first appearance with New York on August 2. Across 148 plate appearances, he slashed a blistering .333/.405/.689 with 14 home runs, 33 RBI and 28 runs scored.
That kind of production is unprecedented for even the greatest sluggers in the league, and was certainly not expected from a guy who hit just .240/.307/.432 with five home runs in his previous 137 career plate appearances.
So what happened between Voit's 137 plate appearances with the Cardinals and the 148 he had with the Yankees?
It won't surprise anyone that Voit's hard hit rate was higher with New York than it was in St. Louis. However, the difference is considerably less than one might expect. Voit posted a 47.9% hard hit rate with the Yankees, compared to a 41.2% with the Cardinals. The biggest difference was a big increase in fly balls and line drives, and way less balls hit on the ground. This was related to his launch angle, which increased dramatically after coming to New York.
While the slight uptick in hard-hit balls and the increase in fly balls cannot be ignored, neither can the egregiously high 41.2% HR/FB rate that Voit posted with the Yankees. It's no surprise a move from Busch Stadium to Yankee Stadium increased his home run output, but a HR/FB rate over 40% is virtually unheard of, and wildly unsustainable for 2019.
So while Voit's success wasn't entirely a product of his new environment, it no doubt played a big factor. And even though Yankee Stadium is very friendly to sluggers, it's hard to envision a HR/FB rate anywhere close to 40% next season.
Besides the home runs, the biggest difference between St. Louis Voit and New York Voit was his batting average. He hit .240 with a .294 BABIP in St. Louis, compared to .333 with a .380 BABIP in New York. A big increase in line drive rate obviously will improve a hitters BABIP, but a dramatic jump like that is cause for concern. I see Voit as more of a .265-.270 hitter, which is fine but is not worth paying a premium for on draft day.
However - Voit's power is still present, and he should still find himself trotting around the bases plenty in 2019. I don't think 30 round-trippers is out of the question, and in that lineup that should give him a good shot at 90+ runs and RBI - making him a valuable fantasy commodity.
Overall, Voit should not be bought at a price point relative to his scorching hot September. He does have solid potential to hit .270 with 30 home runs and 90 RBI however, making him a worthwhile investment at first base. Of course, he'll need to beat out Greg Bird for the position, which is a battle worth watching in spring training.
