RADIO
It has generally been an accepted strategy by many in the fantasy community that you should always wait on a quarterback as the position can be hard to predict and the same players don't always repeat at the top every year. This has also rung true in most leagues since the running back position tends to dry up relatively quickly by the middle of Round 3.
While that has generally been true, a new brand of hybrid, dual-threat, Konami quarterbacks has been rapidly changing the way the quarterback position is played not only in the NFL but across the fantasy landscape as well. Since 25 yards of passing is usually only worth 1 fantasy point in most fantasy leagues, running quarterbacks have become a relative sort of cheat code for fantasy purposes.
10 rushing yards is equal to 1 fantasy point along with passing touchdowns in most formats being 4 points while rushing touchdowns are worth 6. This has shifted the odds in the rushing quarterback's favor. Last year a quarterback like Jalen Hurts began each game with a rushing floor on average of 9.2 fantasy points per game. A less mobile quarterback like Derek Carr or Matthew Stafford would need to throw 2 touchdowns or pass for 225 yards just to break even with that kind of rushing floor. Let's take a dive into the numbers to see what the numbers say, as well as what might be the best possible strategy for you in your draft this year.
Introduction to Late-Round QB for Fantasy Football
In 2020, Josh Allen was the QB1 in all of fantasy. Last season he was going in about the 3rd round of fantasy drafts due to his impressive performance and yet he finished as the QB1 again in 2021.
While Allen is no doubt a dynamic quarterback who is great for fantasy, there is an opportunity cost to drafting a quarterback before round 4 or even round 5 because you are likely missing out on some of the second-tier running backs as well as the rounds in which breakout wide receivers are often found.
Everyone has their own strategy on draft day and you have to decide what works best for you. It's your team and you should be allowed to work within the confines of what you feel comfortable with and not worry about the opinions of others. While there is definitely more risk involved with drafting a quarterback in the first three rounds, it can work as long as you understand two key concepts:
- Your margin for error is slim. If that QB doesn't finish near the top you lost a huge opportunity and are already behind your league mates at the other positions as well as at QB.
- You must be able to find value at the other positions later in the draft to account for drafting a QB early.
A Look Back at 2021 Fantasy Football
For the first time in a long time, Josh Allen repeated as the QB1 in all of fantasy, and here are the point totals and weekly averages from the QBs in 2021.
| Rank | Player | Team | Points | Games | Avg |
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 417.58 | 17 | 24.56 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 395.76 | 17 | 23.28 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | TB | 386.74 | 17 | 22.75 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | 374.22 | 17 | 22.01 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 346.74 | 17 | 20.4 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 336.3 | 16 | 21.02 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 330.56 | 16 | 20.66 |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 328.24 | 16 | 20.52 |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 321.16 | 15 | 21.41 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 310.48 | 14 | 22.18 |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 307.34 | 16 | 19.21 |
| 12 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 282.36 | 17 | 16.61 |
| 13 | Derek Carr | LV | 270.96 | 17 | 15.94 |
| 14 | Carson Wentz | IND | 265.02 | 17 | 15.59 |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 252.98 | 12 | 21.08 |
| 16 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 248.82 | 14 | 17.77 |
| 17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 239.5 | 15 | 15.97 |
| 18 | Mac Jones | NE | 237.94 | 17 | 14.0 |
| 19 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 236.86 | 16 | 14.8 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 234.92 | 17 | 13.82 |
| 21 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 228.1 | 16 | 14.26 |
| 22 | Trevor Lawrence | JAC | 216.04 | 17 | 12.71 |
| 23 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 209.68 | 14 | 14.98 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | DET | 202.5 | 14 | 14.46 |
While Allen is no doubt electric, incredibly fun to watch, and a great asset for your fantasy teams, the fact that he goes at the end of the 2nd/early 3rd round of most 1QB drafts is a high opportunity cost. Instead, you could be drafting a running back, wide receiver, or even Kyle Pitts in that range. That's not to say Josh Allen is bad because he isn't. For fantasy, you are giving up a lot in other areas if you are drafting a quarterback in the 3rd round.
With every pick in our fantasy drafts, there is always an opportunity cost. What that means is we have to consider what we might be giving up at other positions by taking a QB in that range. Quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and even Kyler Murray offer a similar fantasy upside to Josh Allen and often go 2-3 rounds later.
Jalen Hurts was given the keys to the Ferrari this offseason when the Eagles traded a 2022 first-round pick to draft A.J. Brown. While Hurts still has some to prove in real life, he is stocked with talent around him in Philadelphia with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. All three are big assets for Hurts and we know he can make big plays with his legs on the ground for fantasy. Last season Hurts rushed for 784 yards and 10 rushing TDs.
Hurts, Jackson, and Murray have league-winning upside in fantasy leagues due to their dual-threat abilities to make plays with their legs and arm. It is likely that Trey Lance could fall into the same category this season, but we have yet to see much of him play.
2022 QB Rankings for Fantasy Football
Here are my QB tiers and rankings for 2022 along with the player's average ADP. Feel free to use this as a roadmap of sorts to help with your draft strategy.
| Rank | Tier | Player | Avg ADP | Team |
| 1 | Tier 1 | Josh Allen | 23 | BUF |
| 2 | Tier 2 | Lamar Jackson | 50 | BAL |
| 3 | Tier 2 | Jalen Hurts | 61 | PHI |
| 4 | Tier 2 | Justin Herbert | 36 | LAC |
| 5 | Tier 2 | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | KC |
| 6 | Tier 2 | Kyler Murray | 57 | ARI |
| 7 | Tier 3 | Joe Burrow | 58 | CIN |
| 8 | Tier 3 | Russell Wilson | 82 | DEN |
| 9 | Tier 3 | Trey Lance | 103 | SF |
| 10 | Tier 3 | Dak Prescott | 74 | DAL |
| 11 | Tier 4 | Tom Brady | 87 | TB |
| 12 | Tier 4 | Matthew Stafford | 96 | LAR |
| 13 | Tier 4 | Derek Carr | 110 | LV |
| 14 | Tier 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 97 | GB |
| 15 | Tier 5 | Kirk Cousins | 111 | MIN |
| 16 | Tier 5 | Trevor Lawrence | 141 | JAX |
| 17 | Tier 5 | Justin Fields | 127 | CHI |
| 18 | Tier 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 125 | MIA |
| 19 | Tier 6 | Jameis Winston | 160 | NO |
| 20 | Tier 6 | Daniel Jones | 216 | NYG |
| 21 | Tier 6 | Matt Ryan | 150 | IND |
| 22 | Tier 6 | Ryan Tannehill | 155 | TEN |
| 23 | Tier 6 | Mac Jones | 164 | NE |
| 24 | Tier 6 | Baker Mayfield | 175 | CAR |
| 25 | Tier 7 | Marcus Mariota | 228 | ATL |
| 26 | Tier 7 | Zach Wilson | 198 | NYJ |
| 27 | Tier 7 | Carson Wentz | 188 | WAS |
| 28 | Tier 7 | Jared Goff | 199 | DET |
| 29 | Tier 7 | Davis Mills | 178 | HOU |
If your draft strategy is to target one of the first 6 quarterbacks in the elite tier, you should be looking to draft them between the 5th and 6th rounds of your draft. If you are okay with waiting until later to take someone like Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers you may be able to wait until round 9.
How to Approach QB in Superflex Fantasy Football Drafts
Fading quarterbacks in Superflex Drafts always sounds good in theory. "I don't need to draft a quarterback. I can take an elite skill player here." Until you look up in Week 1 and realize you're starting Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones. Both players have upside no doubt, but they don't offer the same kind of consistent weekly floor that quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray do.
The problem with waiting on a quarterback in a Superflex league is that it's impossible to know when you should be timing the run. Last season I made the mistake of starting a superflex draft in my home league from the 1.10 with running back, running back. By the time it came back to me at 3.10 all of the quarterbacks I felt comfortable starting were already off the board, including Kirk Cousins! Even though my roster had a solid season led by Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Justin Jefferson (prior keeper), and Dalton Schultz, I was stuck starting Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, and Ben Roethlisberger at QB and Superflex.
My team ended up making the playoffs with an 8-5 record but got bounced in the first round. It was an important reminder even for an analyst to get back to the basics. In Superflex leagues, QBs simply score too many points to fade them. While there may be exceptions, you are usually better off grabbing two elite QBs early if you can and then sitting back to grab the value that falls at RB, WR, and TE while people are reaching to stop the bleeding at QB.
Players to Target With A Late-Round QB Approach
Both quarterbacks have some great upside for fantasy being that both are talented and still have room to grow in Year 2 of their careers. While Vegas isn't projecting Jacksonville or Chicago to have great records this year, both of those situations could provide some pass-heavy game scripts in the second halves of games where Lawrence and Fields will be able to boost their fantasy stats for your teams while their own teams are trailing
If you aren't comfortable with waiting that long to take a quarterback, Dak Prescott as QB11, Derek Carr as QB14, and Aaron Rodgers as QB15 are all late viable options. Perhaps the move would be to pair a safer QB such as Prescott, Carr, or Rodgers with a riskier QB with more upside such as Lawrence or Fields.
Conclusion
There is no right or wrong way to go about your drafts. At the end of the day, it's ultimately about what you feel most comfortable with. There is nothing wrong with fading quarterback in a fantasy draft, but just be comfortable going up against the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts if you do.
The early QB approach works if you are good at being able to find strong-skill players later in drafts. If you'd like to play the board early and load up at the other spots knowing you can spot a gem at QB with upside, then the later-round approach is for you. Just know in Superflex or 6-point passing TD leagues this will not be an option.
Feel free to send me a message on Twitter if you'd like to talk about player builds or have any questions before your upcoming fantasy draft.
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