ADP Sleepers or Busts? How to Treat Jacksonville's Receiving Options

In my mind, there are two ways you can look at the Jaguars wide receiver battle this preseason. First, you can take a gander at the five promising players there -- Keelan Cole, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief, and D.J. Chark -- and think wow, someone is going to emerge from that mess and be a good fantasy option. The other way is to look at the same situation, sit with it for a second, and throw your arms up in the air in frustration as you realize that it's a position battle that no one seems capable of predicting right now, so you're essentially grabbing a bingo card and hoping Blake Bortles pulls the right balls out of the tumbler. Bortles might get some things right, but is he really going to pull out that O-66 ball right when you need it?

And then there's their promising new tight end, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who looks primed to buck the trend of Jaguars tight ends and fantasy irrelevance. Can he finish among the league's best tight ends though?

It's all a mess, which is why I'm here to caution you about the whole situation. Let's look at the pros and cons of each player and figure out if any of them can be trusted this season in re-draft leagues.

Breaking Down Each Player's Chances

Before I look at each individual player here, just a few quick notes. While injuries plagued the Jaguars from the start last season when they lost their best receiver, Allen Robinson, it's still worth pointing out that Jacksonville didn't have a top-40 finisher at the position. Head coach Doug Marrone's last head coaching stint before this, with the Bills in 2013 and 2014, featured a top receiver finish of WR27 from Sammy Watkins. It's not a big stretch of the truth to say that none of the receivers on this roster have the talent of Sammy Watkins, so it's highly possible that we're trying to dig through all these names just to find someone who can be our WR4/WR5. That's fine -- those are necessary pieces of a roster -- but with this receiving corps, it'll be tougher to get that right than it will be when drafting players from other teams.

ADP data comes from Fantasy Football Calculator and reflects PPR draft position in 12 team leagues.

Marqise Lee - Wide Receiver

Current ADP: WR51 (11.06)

Lee feels like the safest bet to be one of the starting wide receivers for Jacksonville this year and his current ADP reflects that. Lee was the most targeted receiver for Jacksonville last season with 96; he turned those targets into 56 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns. He didn't show much in the team's preseason opener, catching one of his two targets for five yards, but reports seem to be indicating that Lee has looked good in training camp. The primary receiver role should be his to lose.

But he can lose it! 12 drops last season and a catch rate outside of the top 50 brings in major questions about Lee's ability to be productive on the field. He tied for 90th in the NFL in red zone targets, suggesting that his low touchdown numbers so far in his career aren't likely to suddenly spike. Football Outsiders does have Lee inside the top 40 receivers last year in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and defense-adjusted value over average, but those numbers actually were worse than his 2016 numbers. Heading into his fifth season, we might have reached a point where Lee's production last season represents about what we can expect this season. Drafting him at his current ADP is fine if you want someone who should perform around the level of that ADP, but Lee won't break out, and if his struggle with drops reoccurs then he could cede snaps to another player.

Dede Westbrook - Wide Receiver

Current ADP: WR63 (14.01)

Westbrook was targeted often in the playoffs and figures to play a bigger role in 2018 than he did during his rookie season. There are things to like about Westbrook that make him an intriguing pick this far down in the draft. Per the NFL's NextGen stats, Westbrook ranked 14th among wide receivers in average separation last season. If his 52.9 percent catch rate can improve, Westbrook has the speed to create separation from his defenders, allowing him to gain extra yardage and increase his fantasy upside. In addition, Westbrook's 51 targets in just seven games extrapolates out to 90 targets over the course of a full season, which would have placed him second on the team. His 90th percentile college yards per reception mark is also a strong sign that Westbrook can be a good NFL receiver.

It's hard to read much from the preseason, but Westbrook had three catches for 32 yards against the Saints. On those catches, Westbrook showed off his versatility. He took a screen play almost 15 yards, caught a long pass in between two defenders on a Blake Bortles throw that wasn't very accurate, and he caught one on the sidelines on a play where he create some cushion from his defender. I really liked what I saw from Westbrook in that game and what he showed for the team in last year's playoffs. At his current ADP, I think Westbrook is a solid sleeper candidate. This backfield isn't primed for anyone to explode, but Westbrook can post numbers similar to Marqise Lee for a price that's three rounds cheaper. If he ends up busting in a crowded field, you can easily cut your losses.

Keelan Cole - Wide Receiver

Current ADP: WR70 (14.07)

A minor foot injury kept Keelan Cole out of Jacksonville's first preseason game, but the second-year receiver is currently listed as a starter on the team's depth chart. After spending 23 percent of the time in the slot last season, Cole seems like a lock to hold that position down this year, which makes me feel good about his role on the team. Donte Moncrief and D.J. Chark are mostly outside guys, so any challenge from them should be a challenge to Lee and/or Westbrook. Cole, who caught 42 passes for 748 yards and three touchdowns. I have concerns: he was targeted just six times in three playoff games last season, his workout metrics aren't very impressive, and those Football Outsiders numbers that I cited as positives for Lee? Yeah, they aren't positives for Cole, who is outside of the top 60 in both of them.

Still, Cole's production last year, especially at the end of the season, when he had a combined 20 catches for 426 yards and two touchdowns over the final four games, suggests upside and there aren't too many obvious red flags in his way. Like with Westbrook, Cole presents a good chance to give value just inside the top 50 for a price outside the top 50. I think his role as the team's clear slot guy gives him a better chance than Westbrook of avoiding those fantasy-killing, unproductive weeks.

Donte Moncrief - Wide Receiver

Current ADP: WR82 (Undrafted)

Now we're really getting into the speculative plays. Moncrief comes over from the Colts, where his career numbers were fairly uneven. Here's how he stacks up over four seasons per FFStatistics:

His catch rate has declined over the past two seasons. He's played just one full season. He's fast and could be used by the Jaguars as a downfield threat, but Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles isn't going to be throwing the ball deep too much -- in 2017, Bortles ranked 30th in intended air yards. Moncrief won't be able to take advantage of his best skill unless there's also a leap from Bortles in his ability to make deep throws, and even at Moncrief's current cost, I'm not willing to trust his quarterback enough to take that chance.

D.J. Chark - Wide Receiver

Current ADP: NR (Undrafted)

Let's keep this short. D.J. Chark has been impressive in training camp and he's FAST. Take a look at these numbers from PlayerProfiler:

So, what's the problem? Chark is fighting for the fourth receiver spot with Moncrief. Despite being a second-round pick, Chark enters a situation where there isn't a clear-cut route to immediate playing time. I like him a lot in dynasty, but there just isn't room for him to make a consistent impact in re-draft leagues right now.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins - Tight End

Current ADP: TE17 (14.01)

How many years have we been asked to consider Austin Seferian-Jenkins a sleeper only to have him never emerge from hibernation? Through four NFL seasons, Seferian-Jenkins has shown flashes of brilliance but ultimately failed to consistently deliver on that promise. Last season was arguably his best year from a fantasy perspective as he caught 50 passes for 357 yards and three touchdowns with the Jets, but he comes to a Jaguars team with a quarterback, Blake Bortles, who hasn't shown much propensity of throwing to the tight end position during his four years in the league, with just one top 20 tight end season on Bortles's resume. Even last year's TE25 finish for Marcedes Lewis was buoyed by the three touchdowns he caught against Baltimore. If there's a bright side for Seferian-Jenkins, it's that even the disappointing Lewis was on the field for nearly 80 percent of Jacksonville's offensive snaps last season, higher than any other skill position player, but that won't be of much help to his fantasy owners if Seferian-Jenkins ends up where Lewis was amongst Jaguars players for targets -- sixth. At his current price, Seferian-Jenkins can't hurt your team, but players like O.J. Howard, Mike Gesicki, and Ricky Seals-Jones possess more upside on less crowded offenses.

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