Jalen Hurts - Undervalued or Overrated?

Today's fantasy football profile will take a look at second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts by looking at his positives, his concerns, and a variety of other important information in determining his fantasy outlook for 2021.

Hurts has been a difficult player to assess because he only started four games at quarterback his rookie year and his performance was a mixed bag. So how should we value him in 2021?

Check out more player deep dives before fantasy draft days are over. Will Najee Harris be a stud or dud? Is D'Andre Swift worth the risk? Can Austin Ekeler truly be a fantasy RB1? Is rookie wideout Terrace Marshall already a star in the making? First, let's dissect Jalen Hurts' profile.

The Positives With Jalen Hurts

• Rushing Upside: Jalen Hurts had 354 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns last year on 63 carries. In the last four games of the season in which Hurts was the starter, he carried the ball 46 times for 272 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. This is a per-game pace of 11.5 carries, 68 rushing yards, and 0.75 rushing touchdowns, which is one of the best marks in the league at the quarterback position.
• The Return Of The Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line: Last year the Eagles lost starting left tackle Andre Dillard and right guard Brandon Brooks for the season with injuries before the year began. According to PFF, they had “eleven different offensive lineman” play at least 50 snaps. The line should be healthier in 2021 and is projected to move up from being the 19th best line in the league last year according to PFF to the 13th best line in the league in 2021. Having an above-average offensive line in front of him will help him be more successful.
• Throws It Downfield: According to Mike Clay, Jalen Hurts’ aDOT was 9.5 last year and he averaged 13.8 yards per completion. That 13.8 yard per completion rate was #1 for a rookie QB since 2009 and suggests that Hurts may have more value as a passer than most perceive.

The Concerns With Jalen Hurts

• Can He Throw At An NFL Level: Jalen Hurts completed just 52% of his passes last year (77 completions). He also posted a bad throw % of 26.7% last year according to Pro Football Reference. These numbers are abysmal and if Hurts struggles to throw at an NFL level all year, the team could make the decision to bench him for Gardner Minshew or Joe Flacco.
• Receiving Threats: The Eagles receivers have struggled in recent years. They haven’t had a player go over 1000 receiving yards since 2018 with Zach Ertz, and haven’t had a wide receiver go over 1000 receiving yards since 2014 when Jeremy Maclin did it. Maybe 1st round pick DeVonta Smith changes that this year, but the bottom line is that the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver corps looks pretty weak relative to most teams.
• Potentially Turnover Prone: Jalen Hurts had an interception % of 2.7% last year, which is below average for a starting quarterback. He also fumbled nine times (with six in his four starts) last year which could end up being an issue in 2021 as well. If Hurts continues to struggle with turnovers it will make it more difficult to trust him starting in your fantasy lineup.

Additional Info

• Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni made it official and named Jalen Hurts the starting quarterback this past week.
• In 2020, Jalen Hurts was the QB35 (7.6 fantasy PPG) in total fantasy points. But between weeks 14-17 where he was the starter, he was the QB7 (23.8 fantasy PPG).
• Jalen Hurts posted a 56.2 PFF grade in 2020.
• Over the course of Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni's 48 games as the Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator, the team averaged 35.60 passing attempts, 251.98 passing yards, and 1.77 passing touchdowns per game. In addition, his quarterback room averaged 3.17 rushing attempts, 7.96 rushing yards, and 0.15 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground.

• Over the course of Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's 24 games as the Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator, the team averaged 38.25 passing attempts, 286.42 passing yards, and 1.79 passing touchdowns per game. In addition, his quarterback room averaged 3.04 rushing attempts, 10.5 rushing yards, and 0.21 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground.

Personal Thoughts

Hurts has the widest range of outcomes of any quarterback in the fantasy football world. He's currently going off the board as QB11 on ESPN (104.7 overall), QB12 on NFL.com (103.10 overall), and QB10 on Yahoo (78.3 overall). I think at this price he's slightly undervalued and worth the risk in re-draft leagues. Rushing upside is huge for fantasy quarterbacks and Hurts undoubtedly is a top-five quarterback on the ground. If you miss out on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert, your best move is to grab Hurts (or Trey Lance if Hurts is gone) and pair him with a 'safer' quarterback like Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, or Joe Burrow.

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