What the Goff?!? Can We Trust Rams in Week 16?

The Los Angeles Rams started their time in L.A. under coach Jeff Fisher, with the only fanfare coming off the field with the glitz and glamour of Hollywood. After a lackluster season, Fisher was shipped out of town and instead Sean McVay brought his brand of offense to town. The 2017 NFL Draft brought in wide receiver Cooper Kupp as well as other offensive talent and the team traded for Sammy Watkins shortly before the season. The offense lived up to expectations and more, needless to say.

Fast forward to 2018 and the Rams picked up where they left off, losing Watkins but adding speedster Brandin Cooks. The Rams were one of the best offenses in the league, with elite running back Todd Gurley heavily involved and quarterback Jared Goff performing at a very high level.

In recent weeks, however, that hasn't been the case. Goff has struggled, and Cooks hasn't been the player he was at the start of the season. In Weeks 14-15, when fantasy owners have counted on them most, Goff has thrown no touchdowns and six interceptions, while Cooks has accumulated 71 yards in that span without a touchdown since Week 9. A once-elite offense looks anything but elite these days. The aim of this article is to find out why.

The Rams Offense

The Rams have talent in both the passing game and receiving game, that much is clear from just looking down their roster. To start the season, they also had a great balance between passing and rushing plays. Looking at the graph below that much is clear- the Rams had a great balance in the offense.

However, recently that hasn't been the case. The team has had to rely on the talent of Goff more and more, rather than the early season balance that the team had.

Jared Goff: Diving Into His Play

The Rams have been able to play the same starting offensive line in each of their games this season. No other NFL team has managed to do that this season- clearly the team has placed reliance on the performances of their play, and been rewarded largely this season. Goff has all of the weapons needed for a quarterback to be successful: the offensive line, an elite running back and a multitude of receiving weapons.

The season started out with Goff able to be comfortable in the pocket and pick his target. Defenses were constantly struggling to know if they should stack the box or if they should sit deep to eliminate the deep threats the team had. If there wasn't an opportunity for that long pass, then Goff looked to his safety blanket- Cooper Kupp. Josh Reynolds has attempted to fill that role since Kupp was injured, but hasn't yet developed the chemistry yet with Goff.

The past two weeks are especially concerning, with Goff having an average of five yards per attempt. Week 14 brought the Chicago Bears defense on the road, in cold weather. The Bears defense has been effective all year, and they strangled the life out of the offense, putting Goff under pressure all game. To some degree, that struggle could be expected with the conditions listed above.

What is more of a surprise is the struggle that the team wasn't able to assert their dominance over an Eagles defense that has struggled to stop passing plays all season? Goff wasn't able to get into a rhythm, leading to two interceptions and a fumble. This week doesn't look to be much better for Goff either, with a game against the Arizona Cardinals on the road, who give up an average of just 15.2 points per game.

Is Brandin Cooks Still Able To Get Downfield?

Brandin Cooks has been a deep threat since he entered the league, and that hasn't changed in his time in LA. One issue with Cooks is that he can go missing at times, with quarterbacks looking for shorter options than the downfield Cooks. However, that hasn't happened this season with Cooks averaging eight targets per game. What has changed, however, is the yards per reception that he has been able to get in those games.

Similar to Goff, Cooks has had to alter his play since Kupp was out of the lineup. With Kupp in the lineup, Cooks was able to get downfield and be given the opportunity to punish teams over the top that weren't able to stay up with his speed. Looking at his average depth of Target again supports that idea. Cooks has been coming in shorter and has been unable to get into open space to punish defenses with his speed.

According to Airyards.com, it's clear that the Rams have needed to rely on Cooks to run shallower routes than earlier in the season. Cooks is far more effective when his average depth of target has been long downfield, as he is able to use his speed to get separation from the opposing quarterbacks. Cooks will want to return to his early season form, which he will be able to do if he can get downfield and open. The Arizona Cardinals give up just 22.0 points on average to the position, and with Cooks likely to be shadowed by cornerback Patrick Peterson, Cooks may struggle again to get free.

Week 16 Outlook

The L.A. Rams face the Arizona Cardinals this week, who have been able to limit the fantasy output of passing options this season. Earlier in the season, the Rams were able to have their way with the Cardinals in a 34-0 victory, but that was with Kupp on the team, before the recent struggles. The analysis above shows that the team has changed the way the offense has been playing since he was out of the lineup.

In the matchup earlier in the season, Goff finished the game with 354 yards, one touchdown pass, and one interception. Cooks finished the game with a season-high 159 yards from seven receptions. It's tempting to think that the Rams will turn their recent performances around and make a real statement this week. If this were in the middle of the season, it would be worth the gamble that the Rams would recapture their early season form.

But in a week where if you lose there is no ability to bounce back fantasy owners should consider alternative players- especially at quarterback

Fantasy owners could instead look to Mitch Trubisky who has a great matchup against the 49ers this week and will be looking to put pressure on the Rams for seeding in the playoffs, Matt Ryan in a good matchup with the Panthers, or rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Verdict: Goff isn't a good option this week, and you are best looking at streaming options. Cook gets enough usage that even in a tough matchup he presents a decent floor and a high ceiling

More Start/Sit Advice