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Despite splitting the workload with his backfield mate Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams looked like an absolute stud when his number was called during his rookie season. Going into Year 2, the 22-year-old is a potential breakout star in the Broncos' new Russell Wilson-led offense.
In this article, we are going to take a look at what will need to happen for Williams to establish himself as a weekly top-10 fantasy RB option, as well as assess the likelihood of the young star finishing as the overall RB1 in fantasy land, a la Jonathan Taylor in his sophomore season.
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Reflecting on Javonte Williams' Rookie Season
The former North Carolina collegiate star finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game with 12.1 while playing just 50% of his team’s offensive snaps.
In this 50-50 split that made fantasy managers want to rip their hair out, Williams was able to handle 203 carries for 903 rushing yards and turned 53 targets into 43 receptions for 316 receiving yards along with seven total touchdowns.
Williams still managed to finish sixth in yards created, 13th in rushing yards, and 13th in receptions despite having a limited workload.
Now heading into his sophomore season, it remains to be seen the type of split there will be between Williams and Gordon. However, do we really expect a now 29-year-old running back who was signed weeks after free agency opened to have an even split with one of the league’s rising stars? I’m not buying it.
Williams could start to slide down draft boards because of the fear of his potential lightened workload, but there is a path to him being a weekly top-10 running back option, regardless of the presence of Gordon.
In today’s NFL, there are only so many “workhorse” running backs, and yes, it is important to chase backs that get volume and catch passes, but there are some players who can produce RB1 numbers without an astronomical snap count.
For example, in Taylor’s rookie season with the Colts, he finished as the RB8 in fantasy points per game despite having just a 48.1% snap share. This wasn't because of a high reception total either, as Taylor caught just 36 passes in 2020. That was with Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley missing the majority of the season, but he was a fantasy RB1 option regardless.
Another player that we have seen produce on a limited number of snaps is Nick Chubb, who has been a low-end RB1 in fantasy points per game for three consecutive seasons. In 2021, he played 51.7% of snaps and finished as the RB12 in points per game. That was in an offense that struggled mightily and barely used him in the passing game.
The point I am trying to get at is that a player as talented as Williams will be able to produce in whatever kind of split he is in with Gordon.
It is not unreasonable to think we could be getting a 60-40 split this season, and that is on the low-end of the spectrum when you consider the Broncos traded up to draft Williams and basically signed Gordon when no other teams wanted him. Many have his current draft price of a low-end RB1 as too pricey, but there is still a path that is easily attainable for him to pay off at his ADP, even at a 60% snap share.
"Javonte Williams — While Hackett won’t comment on the running back competition, his actions of putting No. 33 out there first two-straight days speaks volumes." https://t.co/99uYSPPiZ0
— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) July 28, 2022
Williams put up 1,219 scrimmage yards in an offense that is clearly worse than the one they will be putting on the field this season. Denver ranked 21st in red zone scoring percentage, and Williams was out-touched 46 to 37 inside the 20-yard line by Gordon.
Not to mention, the Teddy Bridgewater-led offense finished 19th in trips to the red zone on a per-game basis, something that will likely be improved with Wilson under center.
It is hard to imagine the Broncos not ending up in the top half of the league in both of these categories, so we could be looking at a far more significant amount of scoring opportunities for Williams.
An increased role in a better offense means Williams could easily find his way into the double-digit touchdown club this season. Seven total touchdowns (2.8% rate) in an inferior offense while in a dead-even split should tell you all you need to know about his touchdown upside in 2022.
Aaron Jones, who Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett had in Green Bay during his time as offensive coordinator, has seen double-digit touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. His most (19) coming on just a 62% snap share.
Now, I’m not saying Williams is gonna score touchdowns at some astronomical rate. But, Hackett’s track record with Jones tells me there is the potential for the sophomore to greatly improve his scoring efficiency from a season ago.
When you have someone as talented as Williams, what stands out the most to me is how much his fantasy value would skyrocket if Gordon were to miss any time this season.
It was evident what he could do when given a workhorse role last year when he finished Week 13 as the overall RB1 with 29.8 fantasy points in Gordon's absence. He played 81% of the snaps, finishing with 23 carries for 102 yards and six catches for 76 yards and a touchdown.
How Javonte Williams Can Be a Fantasy Football League Winner
This is where his path to the overall RB1 in 2022 comes into play. As mentioned before, Gordon is headed into his age-29 season, which in running back years, is getting up there.
Last season, Gordon only missed one game with a shoulder injury, but he also dealt with rib, hip, leg, and thumb issues over the course of the season.
If Gordon’s body can’t hold up, it will be the Javonte Williams show in the Mile-High city. Let’s be clear, Williams virtually has no chance to be the overall RB1 unless Gordon misses some action because he will have a role when healthy.
However, given the fact that the running back position is the most likely to get dinged up over the course of the season, this possibility is what makes Williams have a wide range of outcomes.
Given his talent and the high-powered offense he is in, there wouldn't be many running backs I would take over Williams if this were to happen. Besides Taylor and McCaffrey, you could make a case for Williams over any other running back in the league if he is put into a workhorse-type role.
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