RADIO
ADP: 114
RANKING STATUS: Overvalued
ANALYSIS: Before the season started, the Detroit Tigers took a chance on J.D. Martinez with a minor league contract. They called him up in late April and he rewarded them with a slash line of .315/.358/.553 with 23 home runs, 76 RBI, and 57 R scored. With the departure of Torii Hunter, Martinez has locked up right field for the Tigers. He has a chance to expand on last year’s breakout with more playing time. But looking closer at Martinez’s numbers should concern fantasy owners about the likelihood of regression.
Martinez led all Major League batters (minimum of 450 PA) with a .389 BABIP, which contributed to his career-high .315 batting average (his previous best average had been .250 in 2013). The unsustainabily high BABIP points to a decline in batting average. Other alarm bells include Martinez's 26.3% strikeout rate and his 37.7% chase rate (26th in the Majors), which indicates his strikeout rate will not go down without a refined approach.
While his career fly ball rate of 34.4% is high enough to maintain 17-24 home runs, Martinez still bats in an unfriendly ballpark for hitters. He is projected to bat be sixth as opposed to fifth, which will keep him further from the meat of the lineup causing him to lose some of his RBI chances to Cespedes. He might have a decent year in 2015, but a repeat of 2014 is not in the cards for Martinez. At the hefty draft price of 114, take a pass on Martinez and let one of your league-mates overpay for him.
