Joe Musgrove (SP, HOU) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260

CURRENT ADP: ~298

ANALYSIS: Musgrove made his MLB debut last year out of the bullpen, striking out eight over 4.1 innings. In his first start he threw seven innings, allowing one earned run with six strikeouts and no walks. His biggest asset has always been his control; from Double-A on through the minors he never had a BB/9 higher than 1.20, and in the majors last season it was only 2.32.

Despite his eight-strikeout debut, Musgrove hasn’t been known to be a big strikeout pitcher throughout his minor league career. His K/9 was just below the league average last season at 7.98, and his SwStr% was also just below average at 9.9%. However, he finds ways to use his control to induce soft contact. His outside swing rate (o-swing %) was above average at 31.3%, and his outside contact rate (o-contact %) was at 58.1%. To put it in perspective, that contact rate would have put him in the top-10 among qualified starters. He won’t blow you away with strikeouts, but can provide an excellent K/BB ratio as long as he's in the rotation.