RADIO
Davante Adams - Stock Up
Adams is by far the biggest beneficiary of the Nelson injury. After coming out of Fresno State in the epic receiver class of 2014 and spending his rookie year eased into the #2 WR role, Davante Adams will finally get his opportunity to contribute as a starting receiver for Green Bay. He has massive shoes to fill as Jordy finished with a line of 98-1519-13 last year. While those numbers are almost guaranteed to be out of reach, it’s possible for Adams to have a massive breakout year in one of the NFL’s premier offenses. While inconsistent, Adams flashed some great run after the catch ability his rookie year, but Green Bay had no reason to rush him into a feature role with the talent in front of him.
Adams lacks elite speed and his game tape shows it. He struggled at times against press corners like Brandon Browner and Cortland Finnegan, and he created almost no separation. He’s not going to be able to replace the big play potential of Nelson on deep balls, but he has the opportunity to shine in the redzone and in the middle of the field. His hands are better than Randall Cobb's and there are no questions about his durability. Adams ADP is expected to jump into the mid-high WR2 range, which is a risk given his somewhat limited skill set, however the idea of having an every down player with Aaron Rodgers at QB is too good to pass up. I expect a line of roughly 70-950-8, which gives Adams WR2 numbers. He could explode if he becomes the red zone presence he was back at Fresno. He’s a great high upside pick.
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Richard Rodgers - Stock Slightly Up
Not the most exciting of prospects, Rodgers has the chance to make a Larry Donnell early season impact to start the year with Nelson on the shelf. Rodgers showed relatively well in his limited opportunities behind Andrew Quarless this year, going 20-225-2. He showed good hands all year (only one bad drop) while finding a way to get open on a Jason Witten level in the middle of the field at times. What Rodgers lacks that will limit his potential is speed, he’s extremely slow.
There were times that Andrew Quarless was 5 steps ahead of him on similar routes and weakside backers had no trouble keeping up with him. He was actually the 2nd or 3rd read on a surprising amount of his catches, which makes me worry that Green Bay never tried to get him involved in the passing game. His pass and run blocking grades were also poor according to Pro Football Focus, much worse than Quarless. I’m not foreseeing a major breakout from Rodgers this year, and I don’t see him making an impact in redraft leagues unless he shows some red zone ability to start the year.
Reports have been decent out of training camp, with reporters saying that the Rodgers to Rodgers red zone connection was picking up steam. However, that hasn’t translated to the preseason just yet. It’s so hard for tight ends with his speed to make a major impact in the NFL. The Jason Witten’s of the world are few and far between. He’s definitely someone to monitor next week with starters playing most of the game. In the long run, it’s hard to see him becoming a full time player with the Packers liking Quarless (who is also irrelevant). I wouldn’t draft him in any league, nor use him as a bye week filler, but if the touchdown numbers begin to pile up and Aaron begins to throw targets his way, I’d seriously consider monitoring him as a streamer.
Randall Cobb - Stock Up
I expect more targets for Cobb, plain and simple. Jordy Nelson saw 151 targets this past year to Cobb’s 126. Cobb should easily meet that 126, and that number could get to 150 if he’s able to continue to develop his game. Cobb gained over 600 yards after the catch this past year, averaging the 2nd most in the league in 2014 with 6.6 for players that played at least 75% of the team's snaps. His catch percentage and missed tackle rate were both 3rd in the league as well.
All these stats make for an extremely exciting fantasy football player and now, he’s Rodgers #1 target. The major question mark is whether Cobb can increase his yardage total through the deep ball. He saw only 13 targets that were thrown 20 or more yards from Rodgers this past year, catching 6 of them. It’s amazing that he was able to put up such a good season this past year while barely being a deep threat. If Cobb’s able to add that dimension to his game this year, he could be in for a monster fantasy season. While it’s not completely likely that he excels, his targets should still increase dramatically from 13.
Another thing to monitor is how he will fare against #1 corners this year. He will likely struggle against the press coverage of Richard Sherman, Aqib Talib, Xavier Rhodes, and Patrick Peterson (fantasy finals week), but the rest of his matchups shouldn’t pose a major threat. His yards after the catch numbers will likely dip slightly to his career average of around 6.0 due to playing tougher corners. I’m not ready to bump up Cobb to where Nelson was being drafted (late first), but I’d be happy to grab him in the early-mid 2nd round. While I see room for improvement on his end of season line, I’m not seeing enough to take him over Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant just yet.
Aaron Rodgers - No Change
It's fair to expect a regression from Aaron Rodgers this year with the loss of Jordy Nelson, but it's not going to be enough to change your perspective on him as a fantasy quarterback. Rodgers is still far and away a top 2 option at the position. He's averaged roughly 4400 yards per 16 games the past 7 years, and his touchdown totals are consistently over 30, if not much higher. Randall Cobb is still a top 10 receiver in the NFL, and the Packers have good depth at the position with Davante Adams and Ty "vybes" Montgomery (another sleeper to watch). I'm expecting a season with roughly 4300 yards and 35 touchdowns, making him an easy top 5 QB, and the near safest one of the bunch.
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