RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~180-195
CURRENT ADP: ~209 overall
ANALYSIS: Miami Marlins catcher Jorge Alfaro continued his development in 2019 by slashing .262/.312/.425 with 18 HR, 57 RBI, 44 R, and 22 BB. The overall numbers may not seem all that impressive, but given that he plays at a relatively weak fantasy position, he performed quite admirably as he was ranked in the top 15 at the position. The question heading into 2020 is whether or not he can continue his ascent as a hitting catcher and possibly put himself within the top 10 at the position.
Most of Alfaro's advanced metrics were solid in 2019, especially when you compare them to his career marks. One area where we saw the most improvement from Alfaro was his power metrics. He put up a 10.7% barrel rate, 90.8 mph exit velocity, .455 xSLG, and 44.8% hard-hit rate. Each of these came in above his career norms. They also attributed to him hitting 18 bombs, which ranked him inside the top 10 for the position.
His strikeout rate of 33.1% is a bit concerning, but if he continues to increase his power and provide home runs and counting stats that go along with those, we should be able to deal with the strikeouts. The 33.1% strikeout rate was also a decline from 2018's 36.6%, so it is feasible we continue to see further improvement here in 2020. There is also plenty of reason to think his power stroke and counting stats will only improve in 2020. Alfaro is only 26 and just finished his second full season in the big leagues, putting up a career-high 431 at-bats in 2019. The Marlins have also added more talent around Alfaro for 2020.
Overall, Jorge Alfaro has been on a solid trajectory over the previous two seasons. He has increased most of his power metrics while reducing his strikeout rate. If he continues to reduce his strikeout rate in 2020, he could potentially have a breakout season, but even if he doesn't, the power metrics tell us he should be somewhere near a top-10 catcher. He makes for a stud second catcher in two-catcher leagues and should be a solid producer as your top catcher if you decide to wait on the position until the later rounds.
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