Josh Lindblom (SP, MIL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~300s

CURRENT ADP: ~320 overall

ANALYSIS:

Josh Lindblom began his professional baseball career at 21-years-old in the Dodgers’ minor league system, but he was never able to gain a foothold in the major leagues. Over his career so far, Lindblom has thrown 147 major league innings to go along with 497.1 minor league innings, owning a combined 4.23 ERA. After the 2014 season, Lindblom left the major leagues for Korea, where he pitched for two seasons and posted an underwhelming 4.53 ERA. Lindblom then returned stateside for a year before going back to Korea in 2017 and finding immense success.

Lindblom remade his arsenal while abroad, eliminating his once oft-used sinker and developing an effective splitter. Over the past two years, Lindblom primarily relied on a splitter, a four-seamer, and a cutter while also mixing in a changeup and a curveball. Lindblom figures to carry a similar pitch mix over to the MLB. Although his fastball tops out at only about 91 mph, Lindblom reportedly generates plus spin on the pitch with a 2610 RPM spin rate that would’ve ranked ninth in the MLB last season. Lindblom also boasted a 1200 RPM spin rate on his splitter, good for the 12th best mark in the major leagues last year.

Given his arsenal, Lindblom projects to rely on soft-contact rather than strikeouts for success. Lindblom’s pitch mix compares favorably to Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin, who posted a 2.93 ERA and 3.86 FIP last year while primarily using a high-spin fastball, splitter, and slider. Gonsolin isn’t a perfect comparison, but the 25-year-old’s performance last season can shed some light on how Lindblom’s arsenal might translate to the MLB.

Lindblom is likely looking at a ceiling of an ERA around 3.15 with a strikeout rate hovering around 20% and a walk rate near 5%. That level of upside makes Lindblom a bargain at his current ADP, where lower upside, similar floor pitchers like Jose Quintana are already off the board.