RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~50 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~75
ANALYSIS: Everyone is so focused on JuJu Smith-Schuster's last three seasons, but let's add a little context to these numbers. In 2019, JuJu missed four games and finished with a disappointing stat line of just 40 receptions, 552 yards, and three touchdowns.
However, to be fair, the Steelers had 14 games where Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges started at QB. The team finished 26th in pass attempts, 31st in yards, and 28th in touchdowns. Rudolph and Hodges combined to be one of the worst starting QBs in the league that season.
In 2020, Smith-Schuster racked up an impressive 128 targets and finished with almost 100 receptions (97). He had only 831 yards, but that wasn't all his fault either. Ben Roethlisberger ranked 29th in yards per attempt with a pathetically low 6.3 average. Check this out...
Even in 2020, when he had just 831 yards, he still finished as the WR18. Excluding his rookie season and 2021 where he only played five games, he has had target shares of 24.5% (2018), 18.3% (2019), and 19.6% (2020).
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have passed the ball 583, 576, 630, and 675 (2021) times. Remember from 2018–2020 there were only 16 games.
Using per-game averages, on the low end, the Chiefs have paced at 612 attempts over 17-games. On the high end, it's at 675. That should be our range of outcomes for the Chiefs' number of passes.
Using the lowest number of 612 attempts with Smith-Schuster's lowest target share of 18.3%, we should be expecting around 112 targets as his floor. On the high side of both projections, we could expect as many as 165 targets as his ceiling. The average between these two is 138 targets. Even if we project a more reasonable 20% target share for Smith-Schuster, which is more in line for his 2019 and 2020 seasons, WR2 upside is still present.
Over the past two years, the Chiefs have averaged 39.4 and 39.7 pass attempts per game. 39 passes per game equate to 663 attempts over 17-games. A 20% target share on that team volume would be 133 targets. With a reasonable outcome of 125–135 targets, there's no reason that Smith-Schuster cannot finish inside the top 20. These aren't 125–135 targets from Big Ben, these are targets from Patrick Mahomes.
2019 and 2020 were the least efficient seasons of his career. In 2019, he had a 13.1 YPA and just a 60.0% catch percentage. In 2020, he had a 75.8% catch percentage and just an 8.6 YPA. On 130 targets, even using the least efficient seasons of his career, we're talking about 78 receptions and 1,022 yards based on his 2019 averages and 99 receptions and 848 yards based on his 2020 averages.
Either way, if you give him six touchdowns, we're very much in the WR2 range and that is with the least efficient averages of his career. Don't sleep on JuJu Smith-Schuster having a bounceback season.
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