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"Orange Julius" left fantasy owners with a bitter taste in their mouths in 2015. Leaving the high powered Denver Broncos for the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars was expected to hurt Julius Thomas' fantasy value a little bit, but a drop-off of this level was shocking.
Despite Thomas recording almost the same amount of yards he did in 2014, he only caught five touchdown passes in 2015. When you're not scoring often, 455 receiving yards won't cut it if you're expected to be a top tier tight end.
Thomas missed the first four games of the 2015 season and when you combine that with the emergence of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, it made it harder for Thomas to build up a good rapport with Blake Bortles. He was still a danger in the redzone, but between the 20's Thomas was unable to provide support. His yards per reception dropped from 12.1 and 11.4 in 2013 and 2014, to 9.9 in 2015.
There is reason to be optimistic for 2016 though. Despite playing one less game than in 2014, the yardage production was nearly identical- meaning his Yards Per Game was actually higher. As Thomas and Bortles play together more, I'm sure Thomas will be utilized more effectively in the passing game. Defenses are also going to be putting a lot of emphasis on stopping Robinson and Hurns on the outside and that should open up more opportunities for Thomas to work across the middle.
Another thing to consider is that if Thomas is healthy enough to play the full season, he will have a chance to get in a rhythm early and pad his stats. He should still be a low-end TE1 or a TE2 with upside in 2016.
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