RADIO
Of all the quarterback prospects to enter the 2021 NFL Draft, Justin Fields has had the most unique route to get to his landing spot. Fields was named the Elite11 MVP heading into his senior year (over Trevor Lawrence) and was universally regarded as a five-star recruit by every major recruiting service. Fields was the top dual-threat passer in his class and ESPN had him rated as the top overall prospect whereas Rivals.com and 247Sports.com had him second behind Trevor Lawrence.
Fields began his college career at the University of Georgia (after initially committing to Penn State), but saw a limited role as a true freshman, completing just 27 of 39 passes (69.2 percent) for four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 carries for 266 yards and four touchdowns while primarily playing behind Jake Fromm. After that season, Fields transferred and was granted immediate eligibility at Ohio State (more on those statistics below).
Ultimately, Fields was regarded as one of the top quarterbacks in this class heading into the draft. A few bumps in the pre-draft process led him to be the fourth signal-caller off the board, heading to the Chicago Bears after they traded up to the 11th pick. Historically, Ohio State quarterbacks have struggled in the NFL. Will Justin Fields be any different? Let's dive in.
College Production
Fields hit the ground running once he set foot on Ohio State’s campus, completing 67.2% of his passes for 3,273 yards and 41 touchdowns with just three interceptions in 14 games. He also added 137 carries for 484 yards (3.5 per carry) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Fields was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and finished third in Heisman voting in his first full season as a starter before eventually losing to Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Thanks to the COVID-19 situation in 2020, Fields was only able to play in eight games his junior year, but he made them count. Fields led Ohio State to an undefeated record while completing 70.2% of his passes for 2,100 yards and six interceptions. Fields averaged nearly 30 more yards passing per game this season (263.5 vs 233.78) and had nearly the same touchdown rate (2.75 vs 2.92) as his sophomore year. He repeated as the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2020.
Most impressive was his performance in a rematch against Clemson in this year's College Football Playoffs. After taking a massive hit while scrambling in the first half, Fields missed only one play due to an injury to his midsection. He wound up finishing the game with 385 passing yards and six touchdowns, proving his toughness and willingness to win. Ohio State ended up losing in the National Championship game to Alabama, but Fields provided the signature performance of the playoffs in the semi-finals.
Rookie-Year Situation
Heading into his rookie year, Justin Fields will have the task of replacing Mitchell Trubisky’s underwhelming production in Chicago. Beyond that, he enters the fray for a franchise that has been starving for above-average quarterback play for the past 30 years (or, if you’re picky, since Jay Cutler helmed the position).
The Bears finished 8-8 during the 2020 season and made a playoff appearance, losing in the Wild Card round to Drew Brees and the Saints. Thanks to that playoff appearance, the offensive coaching staff, including head coach Matt Nagy, were able to retain their jobs. Nagy has been underwhelming as the Bears’ head coach during his career (back to back 8-8 seasons after a 12-4 debut), and will likely have one last chance to save his job. Despite having Mitchell Trubisky as his primary starting quarterback the last three seasons, Nagy has increased his passing attempts each season (culminating in 614 attempts in 2020, the eighth-most in the NFL).
To this point, Chicago has relied on a stellar defense to keep them in games so the run game and timely passing could sustain the offense. With the defense starting to age, they will likely need a strong quarterback to win games and meet the fan base’s playoff expectations. That is where Fields comes into play.
Fields brings arguably the most accurate deep ball in this year’s draft class to the NFL and he will have some weapons to utilize it. Chicago has Allen Robinson as their WR1 and Fields will arguably be the most talented quarterback that the WR has ever played with. During his last two seasons with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, Robinson has averaged 152.5 targets, 100 receptions, 1,198.5 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns per season. Outside of Robinson, Fields will have Darnell Mooney to function as his primary deep threat. Mooney, a fifth-round pick in 2020, had a solid rookie season despite his late draft capital. Mooney was targeted 98 times, catching 61 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. While that was solid production, both Foles and Trubisky struggled with their deep accuracy, costing Mooney even better statistical output.
Fields is already making a positive impression on the second-year wide receiver (and apparently the head coach).
Jimmy Graham (50 receptions on 76 targets for 456 yards and eight touchdowns), Anthony Miller (49 receptions on 76 targets for 485 yards and two touchdowns), and Cole Kmet (28 receptions on 44 targets for 243 yards and two touchdowns) are also leading receivers that will be returning to the offense to help acclimate Fields to the NFL in his first season. The Bears were also active in free agency, adding Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd as field stretchers.
Chicago’s offensive line dealt with plenty of injuries in 2020, but they found stability towards the end of the year. Despite that, Chicago made some upgrades and heads into the season with surprising depth. A combination of James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, Alex Bars, and Sam Mustipher head into the season with experience from the last two seasons and should form a solid interior offensive line. Chicago released disappointing tackles Charles Leno and Bobby Massie, replacing them with a rookie left tackle in Teven Jenkins (second-round pick) and Germain Ifedi. Both of these players should provide significant upgrades to their respective positions this season.
From a running back perspective, Chicago returns third-year running back David Montgomery to the fold. Montgomery had a strong second season in Chicago, carrying the ball 247 times for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 54 receptions on 68 targets for 438 yards and two additional touchdowns. Chicago will also get back Tarik Cohen from an ACL injury (14 carries for 74 yards and six receptions on nine targets for 41 yards in three games) and added Damien Williams (opted out in 2020 due to COVID).
The offense has some strong weapons, but one early obstacle for Fields will be the presence of Andy Dalton, who signed a one-year deal worth $10 million as a free agent before the NFL draft. Despite the tantalizing upside and talent of Fields, Matt Nagy has frequently called Andy Dalton his starter heading into the season. If this is true, then it certainly muddies Fields’ status heading into the 2021 season.
Fantasy Outlook
The presence of Andy Dalton makes Fields' fantasy outlook very complicated to navigate. In all likelihood, this situation probably mirrors Mitchell Trubisky’s rookie season in 2017. That year, Chicago gave a free agent contract to Mike Glennon before trading up and drafting Trubisky. Glennon wound up making four starts that year, finishing with a 1-3 record and more interceptions (five) to touchdowns (four). Trubisky took over from that point and started the remaining 12 games.
Ultimately, Dalton is a more talented quarterback at this point than Glennon, so he may hold off the rookie for a bit longer. But, with Nagy (and GM Ryan Pace) needing to win now to keep their jobs, they may have to turn to the rookie signal-caller to stay in Chicago. If Fields doesn’t win the job out of camp, it is still extremely likely that he makes double-digit starts for Chicago this season. In a worst-case scenario, Chicago has a bye during Week 10 this season, which (depending on their record), could result in Fields making eight starts after that point.
According to NFFC.com’s ADP, Fields is currently off the board as QB24 and pick 143.66 overall. Assuming he starts half the season, this is a solid floor for Fields. Until we get an indication that Fields will be the starter in Chicago, he cannot be taken as your QB1 in redraft leagues. However, he is worth stashing as a high upside QB2 given his passing ability and potential rushing floor. If you take a quarterback early that has a late bye week, doubling up on Fields could be a gamble that pays off in your fantasy playoffs.
From a dynasty perspective, Fields is worth an early to mid-second-round pick in 1QB dynasty leagues. He has the athleticism fantasy players covet in the quarterback position and has both the pedigree as a top recruit and the production in college to justify that draft position. In SuperFlex rookie drafts, Fields is a lock as a top-three pick, behind Trevor Lawrence and possibly Trey Lance depending on your preference.
He is arguably the second-best quarterback in this draft class, and you will find many players who even prefer him to Trevor Lawrence. It is hard to justify him ahead of Trevor Lawrence considering his uncertain immediate playing time, but he should have every opportunity to be a QB mainstay for years to come.
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