Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) - Rookie Wide Receiver Draft Values

4 years ago by Brandon Murchison

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~102 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~120

ANALYSIS: What was with former-LSU Tigers rookies entering 2020!? This is what a National Championship does to those who win it, I guess. Jefferson played a majority of his snaps (870) out of the slot in Louisiana last season and was the security blanket at times for Burrow. The massive leap in production (111 receptions and 18 TD) caught the eyes of many scouts and shot him up the draft boards, ultimately turning the receiver in a 22nd-overall pick.

Jefferson attacks balls away from his body, helping his QB, and was the best receiver in the class in contested catch rate. He led the nation in catches from the slot (109) and yardage (1,518) while finishing fourth in missed tackles forced (25).

Going to the Vikings makes Jefferson the immediate replacement for the departed Stefon Diggs. Although Diggs led the team in receptions a year ago (63), the production was down as the team went to a more run-based offense. Even with that, Diggs is leaving all of 94 targets on the table after getting traded to Buffalo, so there will be chances for Jefferson to rack up fantasy points no matter what.

Adam Thielen, now healthy, will again be a big part of the passing attack and the surefire No. 1 receiver, but Jefferson figures to find a nice share of the targets as early as his rookie year (PFF projects the freshman to 75 targets for a nice 15.3% target share in Minny's offense). Jefferson has the ceiling of a player that will provide WR2 production for several years in the league starting in 2020 if he becomes the third most-used player on offense only behind Thielen and Dalvin Cook. That, to my eyes, is much more valuable than what Jefferson's 10th-round ADP currently states.