Justin Smoak (1B, MIL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~ 300

CURRENT ADP: ~349 overall

ANALYSIS: Justin Smoak's ADP is likely to start trending upward once the universal DH becomes a reality, but that doesn't change his sleeper status. There had initially been playing time concerns for Smoak with Ryan Braun likely going to see some playing time at first base against left-handers, but Braun was always going to need to see playing time in the outfield since Avisail Garcia has only played more than 105 games in the field twice in his entire career and Lorenzo Cain is coming off multiple lower-body injuries that sapped his speed and usefulness. Now that the National League will get a DH, there is no reason why Smoak shouldn't get 500+ plate appearances in the middle of a solid lineup in a hitter's park.

While 2019 wasn't a great year for him, I think we can expect stats closer to 2018 where he went .242/.350/.457 with 25 home runs, 77 RBI and 67 runs in 147 games. Last year, Smoak had an xBA of .250 and a BABIP of .223 despite reaching .285 or better each of the last three years. His BB% continues to grow, rising to 15.8% and giving him a K%-BB% of 5.4%, which is astronomically low for a player with his power. Make no mistake, Smoak still has power. His average exit velocity of 90.3 was good for 68th in the league, his Sweet Spot% went up to 37.5% and he's always had strong barrel rates (left).

If his batting average regresses to his career norms, in particular after his resurgence in 2017, there is no reason not to expect Smoak to be a valuable fantasy commodity in Miller Park and a great late-round pick for the CI spot.