Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~84

CURRENT ADP: 145

ANALYSIS: Justin Smoak broke out in a big way in 2017 with 38 HR, 90 RBI, a 20.1% K% on a triple slash of .270/.355/.529. The former top prospect made major changes to his approach, appearing more confident and comfortable. He made more overall contact than he had in years at 79.2% while swinging at far fewer pitches out of the zone. Smoak had an O-Swing% of 25.8%, a drop of more than 4% from 2016. The new approach allowed Smoak to finally tap into the huge power that was always there, raising his Hard% and producing a .259 ISO.

Talk of regression started the second the season ended, and his ADP of 145 reflects that. However, the truth is that there is nothing in Smoak’s profile to suggest that his breakout was not real. His HR/FB of 19.7% seems high, but a survey of hitters with an ISO over .250 suggests that 19.7% might actually be on the low side. His dramatic improvement on K% to just 20.1%, a reduction of 12.7% from 2016, comes from being more selective and forcing pitchers to throw to him.

Smoak should be an easy top 100 pick, and even pick 84 might be too low. There might be a little regression, but .265/35/90 would be good for a repeat campaign as a top-10 1B. The 31-year old goes into 2018 having legitimately earned his top-5 nickname in baseball: “Smoak Monster”.