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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Zach Davies, MIL
Season K-Rate: 21%, Last 30 K-Rate: 29%
Davies suffered through a terrible beginning to the 2016 season, going 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA in April. But since the opening month, every aspect of his game has improved, and has culminated into a 3-1 record with a 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a healthy 9.4 SO/9 through six starts in the month of June. That is even including the forgetful outing versus the Dodgers two nights ago.
A K rate increase this dramatic is quite remarkable considering Davies' lack of an overpowering fastball. He has done away with the four seam, and is now equipped with a two seam and a cutter, both of which have an average velocity in the high 80s. But what makes Davies' so effective is his number-one out pitch, the change up. Davies' change up has held opponents to a .194 BA, and has caused a 20.5 SwStr%. It's 3.7 wCH value ranks as the 17th best change up among starters.
Looking at Davies' heat maps, it looks as if the two main contributors to his success over the past 10 starts are control of his fastballs, and obviously throwing his best pitch more often. As you can see, over his six starts in June, Davies had much more command of his fastballs keeping them concentrated on his glove side of the strike zone instead of spread across America in April and May. As far as the number of times he has thrown the change up, I don't need to show a heat map for that, just know that in six starts in June, he has thrown the pitch more times than he did during his eight starts in April and May.
I am a believer in the June edition of Zach Davies. He seems to have figured out how to best utilize his fastball-change up combo, and is showing greatly increased control. He makes for a nice second half sleeper, and is probably sitting on your waiver wire right now.
Verdict: Buy
Sean Manaea, OAK
Season K-Rate: 18%, Last 30 K-Rate: 24%
Much like Davies, Manaea was just awful over the first two months of 2016. Six starts after his promotion, the LHP owned an ERA north of 7.00 and a K/9 south of 6.0, certainly not the stats fantasy owners had been hoping for from the prospect. But through four starts in June, Manaea is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and an even 9.0 K/9. He spent two weeks on the disabled list, but came back looking fantastic, firing 5.2 scoreless innings in a victory over the Giants.
Again, just like Zach Davies, Manaea's success over the past month can be contributed to increased control. In the minor leagues, Manaea's raw stuff could have been filthy enough to get past hitters no matter where he was throwing it. Once promoted to the bigs, it certainly was not enough. He was in the middle of the zone far too often, as you see with this horrifying pitch location heat map of his first six starts.
But now take a look at the same heat map but for his last four starts.
That's what you call keeping the batter guessing. It's amazing what staying out of the heart of the strike zone will do for your pitching stats, even if you have a fastball that touches 96 mph mixed with a slider that sails in at under 80 mph. I would say this is just a simple case of a youngster getting his feet wet and adjusting to major league hitting. If the last month is any indicator, which I believe it is, it would seem Manaea is finally settling in, making him a second half dark horse and a cheap source of strikeouts here on out.
Verdict: Buy
K-Rate Fallers
Jhoulys Chacin, LAA
Season K-Rate: 16%, Last 30 K-Rate: 6%
After suffering yet another loss yesterday, Chacin is now 3-7 with a 5.87 ERA on the season. To kick a dead horse, he also has only struck out 11 batters in his bast six outings. The 28 year old started the season strong with the Braves with three quality starts in a row with 19 combined strikeouts against fellow NL East opponents. But as expected, the move to the American League has not been kind in the slightest.
Chacin has experienced some bad luck this year. His .304 BABIP and 63.6 LOB% are quite a ways off from his career average, but that is neither here nor there in reference to missing bats. Bottom line: the nice lift in the low expectations caused by a nice start to the season has quickly vanished now that Chacin is a member of the Angels. We weren't expecting much heading into the season, but now we can surely disregard him in fantasy leagues.
Verdict: Sell (as if anyone owned him anyways)
Jimmy Nelson, MIL
Season K-Rate: 17%, Last 30 K-Rate: 10%
Nelson had been pitching great heading into June, after going 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 7.5 K/9 in May the previous month, but heads into July dragging his feet after going 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 4.3 K/9 in June. But we can all relax because after looking at his game log, I found there is nothing to worry about with Nelson, he just had a tough stretch of opponents. The shortage of strikeouts really has only occurred over the past three games, in which he totaled five strikeouts against the Giants, Athletics, and Nationals. The Giants game was a dud, and Nelson was shelled for eight runs (six earned) in 3.2 innings, striking out only two. But if you ignore this particular outing, Nelson was great against Oakland and Washington, allowing only one run combined over 10 innings. San Francisco has the fewest strikeouts against RHP in the league, and both Oakland and Washington are also ranked in the top half.
After the All-Star break, Milwaukee faces Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs, and Arizona. All four of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts versus RHP. So don't push the panic button yet, because Nelson's K-rate will get back up near his career average of 18.8%.
Verdict: Buy
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