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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Ian Kennedy, KC
Season K-Rate: 25%, Last 30 K-Rate: 35%
In his first year with the Royals, Ian Kennedy has been exactly as advertised. His ERA sits at 4.28, the exact mark he ended with last season in Arizona. His K/9 rate is also eerily similar (9.3 in 2015, 9.38 in 2016). However, Kennedy is doing something differently this season. He is throwing more pitches in the zone, and hitters are hitting him much harder than last season.
Looking at the heat maps below from 2015 and 2016, you will see Kennedy is throwing more strikes this season, but he is challenging hitters by throwing pitches down the heart of the plate.
The results of this have led to Kennedy getting a bump in strikeouts this season, but his hard hit contact has jumped from an already sub-par 35.2% last season to 38%(!) this season. His HR/9 rate has jumped to 2.14 due to the hard contact. He and his teammate Chris Young lead the league in HRs allowed. Kennedy’s FIP/xFIP of 5.38/4.48 don’t clamor for any high hopes either. If you can sell Kennedy for value to anyone, run, don’t walk.
Verdict: Sell
J.A. Happ, TOR
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 29%
While J.A. Happ has failed to record a quality start in four of his last five starts, it hasn’t affected his rising strikeout rate. During the month of July, Happ has a 25:2 K:BB rate over three starts, while hitters are batting a mere .225 off him. Happ has actually struck out batters at a lower rate this season than he did last year (7.17 in 2016 vs. 7.90 in 2015), but with how he has been pitching recently that looks to change.
His FIP/xFIP are currently at 4.00/4.21 respectively, but some of his underlying stats are encouraging. On the season, opponents are hitting only .243 off of him, which ranks above pitchers like Noah Syndergaard and Zack Greinke. Over his career he has pitched better post-All Star break, posting a 4.34 ERA before and a 3.71 after the break. Last season he posted a 2.95 ERA after the break, and saw his K-rate climb from 18.4% to 24.6% This season he held a 19.4% K-rate pre-All Star break, and has been trending in the right direction for the second half.
Happ pitches in the toughest division in baseball, but has proven he can withstand some top offenses. If Happ can keep his home ERA of 3.59 around that same rate, he will have success the rest of the season. He has already showed he can pitch well on the road with a 3.31 ERA and an opponents average of .218. Historically a better second half pitcher, I am buying Happ’s improvements.
Verdict: Buy
K-Rate Fallers
Drew Smyly, TB
Season K-Rate: 25%, Last 30 K-Rate: 17%
After a very solid first month of the season, Smyly has been extremely disappointing. Now the only thing keeping him relevant, his strikeouts, have been declining. He is striking out 9.48 hitters per nine this season, down from his career high 10.40 last season. Hitters are batting .270 off of him, which is way up from the .228 batting average against last season. The difference between his first month and what he has done since, is that he is throwing more pitches over the heart of the plate.
The first heat map represents his first month of the season, where he posted a 2.60 ERA. The second map shows his production since, where he has posted a 6.69 ERA. During April, he was able to get hitters to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone. Since, he has thrown more pitches over the heart of the plate, which has led to his soft contact dropping and his hard contact rising. He hasn’t lost much velocity on his pitches from last season to this one and isn’t dealing with any injury, so he is either dealing with a big mechanical issue, or there is some underlying fatigue after throwing more innings this season than he did last season (89.1 to 105.1 this season).
Smyly’s K-rate may stabilize back to his career norms, but he needs to fix much more than that if he’s going to be an effective pitcher this season. He is a streamable option in dream matchups, other than that, let someone else deal with this headache.
Verdict: Sell
James Paxton, SEA
Season K-Rate: 21%, Last 30 K-Rate: 16%
James Paxton is another pitcher who has thrown more innings this season than he has in his career (108 innings this season, 103 innings all of last year). Paxton has been filling in for Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker, and has for the most past done a valiant job. To go along with his 4.18 ERA, he holds a 3.19/3.52 FIP/xFIP. His strikeout per nine rate is up from 7.52 last season to 8.20 so far this season. He has a career strikeout rate of 20%, so what he is doing now is right in line with his norms.
His 16% rate over his last 30 games is bound to rise back up; his problem has been the quality of contact he has given up, and he has been BABIP’d to death. Paxton’s contact rates are all not where they would want to be. His soft contact rate is only 9.9%, compared to his last season number of 18.4%. The soft contact he isn’t giving up if going towards his hard contact, which sits at 32.3%. Good news is these stats are similar to his 2014 numbers, when he held a 3.04 ERA over 74 innings. If he can fix his soft contact even slightly, it will greatly help his overall results as a pitcher. His BABIP sits at .374 is much higher than his career rate of .299. This rate will positively regress towards his career number as the season progresses.
Paxton has been a better second half pitcher in his career, and he has better days ahead in the Seattle rotation. He has a manageable schedule over the next few weeks, and is someone who can be bought low on or scooped up off of waivers.
Verdict: Buy
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