RADIO
In every fantasy sport, keeper and dynasty leagues are becoming more and more popular by the year. Fantasy basketball is no exception, and with its long-lasting stars and relatively stable career arcs, it's especially friendly to long-term planning. This week, RotoBaller begins its weekly series of profiles on emerging keeper and dynasty options, which we will continue throughout the season.
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Why You Should Consider Trey Lyles for Your Keeper Team
The Utah Jazz have found themselves with a embarrassment of riches at the PF-C positions. Throughout the years the block has been manned by the likes of Karl Malone, Paul Millsap, and Al Jefferson. At the start of the 2016-17 NBA season, the Jazz will have another skilled group of bigs consisting of Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Boris Diaw, and sophomore Trey Lyles.
With the offensive landscape of the NBA tilting more towards a space and pace approach, interior bruiser Derrick Favors may look to be the odd man out once he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018, which would leave the staring PF spot open for the floor stretching Trey Lyles. Combined with some short term upside, that makes him a prime candidate for dynasty and keeper league teams (Lyles is currently owned in only 44% of Yahoo leagues). Favors is a talented player who possesses an offensive game closer to the basket; Lyles on the contrary has shown during his lone season in the NBA that he has the ability to stretch the floor, run in transition, and be a versatile defender.
Trey Lyles boasts a 6' 10" frame, and an impressive 7' 1.5" wingspan, making him an ideal modern stretch four and center in small ball lineups. During his one-and-done stint in Kentucky, Lyles shot a woeful 13.8% from three point range but made a big leap in his rookie year by connecting on 38.3% of his threes. He is now looking to improve once again by knocking down 45.8% on 4 attempts per game during his six preseason games this year.
While his three point stroke isn't established enough to be considered automatic yet, he has made a step in the right direction throughout his collegiate and professional careers, so projecting him to be a 40% three point shooter in his prime isn't really out of the question. Even though Lyles does have the ability to stretch the floor only about 30% of his field goal attempts were threes. The rest were spread across mid range jumpers and baskets from less than 5ft out, which is promising because he gets his shots up from all parts of the court, and is again something of a requisite for the modern PF.
Aside from all the hypothetical arguments that can be thrown around for Lyles being a top dynasty pick, we do have a small sample of 8 games last year where he was given 30+ MPG to forecast what he could potentially be when given starters minutes. During those 8 games Lyles was able to compile averages of 13.8 PPG, 1.6 3PM, 10.1 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 0.6 BPG, while shooting 44.1% from the field. Numbers like that from a rookie show nothing but promise. His athletic ability and shooting stroke for a big man have him primed to be Utah's power-forward of the future. A future frontcourt tandem of Lyles and Gobert seems in the cards because they make for a formidable offensive duo as well as an athletic and long defensive challenge for opposing bigs.
By the time Derrick Favors' contract is be up in Utah, Lyles would be wrapping up his third NBA season which is usually the time young players start to hone their skills and show what they can really do at the NBA level. If Utah decides to take the slow methodical approach with growing their talent, then we won't see Lyles fully unleashed until the 2018-19 season, but there is always a chance Favors gets hurt or traded and a huge opportunity presents itself to Lyles.
One asset Lyles has in his arsenal that sets him apart from your prototypical PF is his ball handling ability. There were numerous examples during his rookie year where Lyles took slower defenders off the dribble and either finished at the rim or found an open pocket of the court to launch a jump shot. The ability to create off the dribble from a player 6-10" will cause match-up nightmares for opposing coaches, and essentially put the ball in Lyles' hands a lot more leading to a jump in usage.
Pairing his ball handling ability with his polished footwork make for a high offensive ceiling for this young player. He has already displayed the ability in game to grab a rebound on one end, lead the break, and either finish at the rim himself or dish to a teammate. That type of versatility is treasured and valued by NBA teams. Even though Favors is impeding his way to minutes right now, Lyles should still see the floor as the first big off the bench because of that X-factor offensive play style he brings from the PF position. As we've seen from Enes Kanter, players with high-level offensive skills can find value even as a reserve.
While gushing over Lyles' offensive upside, it wouldn't be fair to brush over his lack of defensive contributions in the form of Steals and Blocks. In his rookie year, Lyles only managed to get 0.3 STL and 0.2 BLK which are a horrid 0.7 and 0.5 respectively when looked at per-36. Those numbers leave much to be desired in his defensive ceiling, which slightly tempers expectations about the type of fantasy player he can be once given starters minutes. With more games under his belt his steal numbers should go up with time after developing a better sense of how NBA offenses operate and how to effectively stop them. Unfortunately playing alongside defensive dynamo Rudy Gobert might cap the amount of blocks Lyles will get, as Trey defense players further from the basket knowing that he has Gobert to pickup his man if the player slips by Lyles.
All in all, Lyles projects to be a player with an excellent offensive upside but a somewhat capped defensive one. However, Utah looks to have their future planned around the core of Dante Exum, Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Trey Lyles, and Rudy Gobert. I believe Lyles will be getting his shot at big minutes in the near future, and with it will come high-end fantasy production.
