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As the buzz and hype surrounding the 2022 NFL Draft grew, it had seemed apparent to everyone that the Steelers were going to draft a quarterback early in much the same way it was known in 2021 that they were going to turn in the draft card for Najee Harris. The final detail that everyone had yet to agree on was which quarterback. Speculation had ranged from Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Kenny Pickett.
On Thursday night in Round One, no quarterbacks had yet been selected and the Steelers had their choice of whichever one they wanted at 20 overall. When the pick was made, there was a little bit of shock and awe across the fantasy community, but it is a move that we should have all seen coming. The Steelers have never been shy about drafting players from Pitt. They share the same facilities and play on the same field. The Steelers front office and coaching staff are very plugged in on the day-to-day operations of Pitt football and have a leg up on the rest of the NFL when scouting Pitt players.
As mentioned previously, the Steelers are one of the most stable landing spots in the NFL and the ideal landing spot for a rookie quarterback. Does that make Pickett a fantasy star in the making? Let's take a look. Once you're done here, be sure to also read our other profiles and in-depth breakdowns for this year's other fantasy football rookies.
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Kenny Pickett's College Recap
Kenny Pickett was a 3-star, dual-threat quarterback prospect in the class of 2017. He had also received offers from Boston College, Iowa, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia, and Wisconsin among five others before enrolling at Pitt. After spending five years there and starting four of them, Pickett left with a 33-16 career record and became the school's all-time leading passer.
He has mostly been seen as an average starter from 2018 through 2020 until his breakout season in 2021, where he lead the Panthers to an 11-2 record while throwing for 4,319 yards with 42 TD, which more than totaled all of his TD passes in the prior three years. The question that we must ask about Pickett is whether his 2021 season is a sign of things to come or a sort of anomaly that will regress back towards the mean. Is it possible that he had a sort of "lightbulb moment" in much the same way Joe Burrow did in his final season at LSU? Pickett says he models his game after Burrow in the same way that he can run around to create more time for his receivers downfield, is cool under pressure, mature, and very accurate.
What Kenny Pickett Brings to the Steelers
Future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger retired after 18 seasons as the Steelers' starting quarterback, which paved the way for them to make a splash in the draft and try to find their next franchise signal-caller. Pickett should be the opening-day starter and brings plenty of experience to the table. While it is likely unfair to compare him to Big Ben, Pickett does provide some rushing upside and scrambling that was not seen from Roethlisberger in his later years.
With a solid roster already in place that made the playoffs the season prior, the good news for the Steelers with Pickett is they are not getting a relative project of sorts, they are getting a quarterback who has the experience to come in and start right away.
Kenny Pickett Fantasy Football Outlook
Kenny Pickett projects as a lower-half QB2 with upside for 2022. His fantasy floor is likely Mac Jones's 2021 season. The difficult part is projecting his upside. Pickett has a solid supporting cast with Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth around him. Can he continue to grow and reach similar fantasy upside in the realm with Joe Burrow or even Justin Herbert?
Pickett is more mobile than he is given credit for. He ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at the combine and is willing to scramble for first downs. He tallied 233 rushing yards and five touchdowns in his final season at Pitt. When looking at college stats, it's important to remember that sacks count against a quarterback's rushing yards. It's not likely Pickett will run as much as Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts but he isn't a pure statue back there and will use his legs to make plays when needed.
Barring some preseason miracle, Pickett is the only fantasy football rookie quarterback that you can draft with confidence in being a starter for Week 1 of the upcoming season, which drives up his value in Dynasty Superflex and Keeper leagues. While the Steeler Way will require him to work hard and earn the job, much of the reports coming out about a positional battle at QB in Pittsburgh over the summer will be mostly cannon fodder. Pickett turns 24 here soon. The driver's seat is his.
The biggest challenge is trying to predict Pickett's ceiling from a production standpoint in fantasy football. He does a lot of things well but doesn't have some of the elite traits like a rocket arm or pure speed that can be attractive when drafting a quarterback for fantasy. He is also going to an offense that was 23rd in yards per game and 21st in scoring, as well as an offensive line still in need of an overhaul compared to the Steelers' offensive lines of years past. While the usual Steelers model with a young quarterback is to not make mistakes on offense while playing good defense, that may no longer be a viable option with the rest of their rivals in the AFC North featuring Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and now Deshaun Watson. Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada may be forced to air it out to keep up with the rest of the quarterbacks in the division.
Pickett and Diontae Johnson could be a solid value stack in best-ball formats for the upcoming season being that Johnson's current ADP has taken a little bit of a tumble since Big Ben's retirement.
The choice of Pickett at 20 overall was criticized by many with the argument that he doesn't have much upside and that the Steelers have to get out of the 90s when it comes to their approach to team building. With how well run the Steelers organization is, it shouldn't surprise any of us if they have found another great quarterback. History is on their side.
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