Keon Broxton (OF,NYM) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 400

CURRENT ADP: ~510 overall

ANALYSIS: A fantasy darling for a few seasons, Keon Broxton owners are still waiting for that breakout campaign. A move to New York might be the key to playing time, and the right opportunity to flaunt his stuff in the Bigs. No longer is he blocked by MVP candidates in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, but instead takes a spot on a team in need of a true anchor in the outfield. The downside for Broxton is that he will need to earn a spot this Spring. Looking to his numbers, this is a good risk for owners to take.

One external factor limiting Broxton’s 2018 might have been the shuttle from Triple-A to the Brewers. Over the split campaign, Broxton was able to appear in a total of 133 games, with 423 total PAs. Regular starts show durability and a good enough bat with upside that he was getting playing time with Colorado Springs even with past struggles. Also, no matter the stop Broxton flashed the speed, with 27 steals in the minors, and five with the Brew Crew. Add to that a total of 14 homers and the raw fantasy production is there to be had.

Whatever the reason, his launch angle dropped from 9.4 in 2017 to 2.7 last season. Besides, the exit velocity fell from 86.3 to 84 MPH. While he did see a four-point jump in his walk rate, the downside was less power across the board. Going back to his 2017 approach seems to be the best ask for fantasy owners, and a new team should give that a fresh look. Owners should not let the recency bias of fantasy baseball keep Broxton from the draft board. Take the playing time upside due to the glove, with the speed and power threat, and ride this non-drafted ADP to starting outfielder production in steals and power.