Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET) - Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~55

CURRENT ADP: ~63

ANALYSIS: The Detroit Lions selected running back Kerryon Johnson with the 11th pick of the second round, making him the fourth running back selected after Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel. Johnson had a solid three years as an Auburn Tiger, rushing for over 2,400 yards at 4.8 yards per carry and 34 total touchdowns.

The issue with Johnson’s fantasy outlook has nothing to do with his skill set - it’s about his opportunity. The Lions, exhibiting a knee-jerk reaction to having an awful rushing attack in 2017, went out and signed notorious goal-line bruiser LeGarrette Blount in the offseason. Additionally, they still have passing-down specialist Theo Riddick, and the perpetually disappointing Ameer Abdullah, on the roster and expected to stay there.

Though Abdullah surprisingly drew the “start” in Week 2 of the preseason, Johnson seems to have surpassed him on the depth chart and has the profile of the early-down, between-the-tackles runner that the Lions have been looking for about two decades now. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine the Lions not utilizing Theo Riddick in no-huddle and passing down situations and Blount in goal-line and short-yardage plays.

The presence of these specialists limits Johnson’s upside to start the year, but there are definitely a few ways in which he could become a valuable fantasy contributor and blow away his RB25 ranking. First of all, though he needs to learn the offense and adapt to the speed of the NFL, he is arguably the most talented back on the roster and could conceivably become the focal point of the running game with a good start to the season. Another way he could become a major factor is with injuries to either Riddick or Blount, which is not at all far-fetched given their histories, and in Blount's case mileage concerns (over 1,300 carries in his 8-year career). Consider Kerryon Johnson a high-risk, high-reward RB3/Flex option who has an above-average chance to outperform his ADP and return major value.