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The Bucs came out flat after a bye and lost to the Washington Football Team, Cam Newton beat the league's best team, the Seahawks did not score a point in Russell Wilson's return, and the Steelers and Lions played to a tie. It was another strange week in the NFL.
A lot of data was generated from all of this craziness, so let's go ahead and dive in. In this post, I try to just show the relevant numbers in interactive tables to you readers so you can dig for your own insights.
I hope some of you have found this series useful, let's knock out Week 10!
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Situational Data
The Steelers led the league in plays run, which was no surprise given that they had 10 extra minutes to cover. Even with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, they ran a 64% pass rate. The pass-heaviest team was the Seahawks against the Packers, running a passing play 82% of the time and having almost zero success. The Rams and Raiders were also forced to the air more than they usually like as they were both playing from behind. The 49ers continued their run-heavy ways, posting an insane 91% neutral situation rush rate as they got up big early on the Rams and held the lead. They did not have to attempt a single deep pass on Monday night.
The Bills aired it out the most with a crazy 21% deep pass rate (passes that travel 25 or more yards in the air), and Stefon Diggs took full advantage with a league-leading receiving week. The young guns Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Trevor Lawrence kept showing their willingness to air it out, all going over 10% on the deep-pass rate. Check out the rest of the table yourself!
Another 100% snap share for Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson seemed to be the early beneficiary from Robert Woods' absence with a 94.5% snap share. Odell Beckham Jr. played just 15 snaps for a 27% rate. Chris Godwin seemed healthy after being a game-time decision, playing 96% of the snaps. Tyler Johnson also reached a high mark of 69% as the Bucs fell behind early. Brandon Aiyuk led San Francisco in snaps with a 90% share, although it didn't result in many fantasy points. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle fell below 80% as the 49ers really diversified their offensive looks in Week 10.
The value running backs this week really paid off, as Mark Ingram II had a big day on the ground playing 85% of the snaps, and D'Ernest Johnson stepped right back into the bellcow role with Nick Chubb out, playing 88% of the snaps and racking up 26 touches.
Quarterbacks Data for Fantasy Football
The best QB by yards per attempt was Josh Allen, who posted a beautiful mark of 13.1 and threw the ball deep quite a bit with a 12.9 average depth of pass attempt. Tua Tagovailoa wasn't far behind with a very successful game after coming in for Jacoby Brissett, going for 11.3 yards per attempt. Jimmy Garoppolo also benefited quite a bit from the yards after catch and racked up 182 yards on just 19 throws.
Russell Wilson's return from the injured list was not typical, as he put up just 161 actual yards while throwing for 466 air yards, one of the highest marks we've seen all year. They just could not quite connect deeply on that Packers secondary. The least successful QBs on the week were Baker Mayfield (73 yards no 21 attempts), Jared Goff (114 yards on 25 attempts), and Trevor Lawrence (164 yards on 36 attempts). Those three continue to be fringe fantasy options at best.
Touches Data for Fantasy Football
D'Andre Swift saw the biggest workload of his career, rushing the ball 33 times and hauling in three catches. The results were good, but not quite as booming as you would've thought given the volume. Jonathan Taylor just keeps getting more and more work, notching 27 touches here including six catches. He is the league's RB2 at worst right now behind Christian McCaffrey. Rhamondre Stevenson took full advantage of his elevated opportunity, averaging five yards per carry on his 20 carries and adding four catches. It will be interesting to see if that performance earns him some more work when Damien Harris returns.
Christian McCaffrey is probably about to just start breaking fantasy football again start next week, he saw an almost-full workload on Sunday with 13 carries and 10 receptions. He still gave up 18 rush attempts to Ameer Abdullah and Chuba Hubbard, so it's pretty reasonable to start projecting 30+ touches for this man again - he is going to smash moving forward.
The Titans were also an interesting team on Sunday, as D'Onta Foreman led them in rushes with 11 carries and two catches, sending Adrian Peterson to the backseat as he was given the ball just nine times. He probably projects to be the Titans' leading ball-carrier moving forward, but the path to 15+ touches a game is very thin there - don't go overboard on this one week. The last piece of interesting news was that Wayne Gallman Jr. led the Falcons in carries with 16, albeit in a completely non-competitive game.
Receivers/Tight Ends Data for Fantasy Football
Stefon Diggs finally had the elite WR1 game we'd been waiting for, racking up 162 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Kupp, Diontae Johnson, and Marquise Brown tied him to lead the league in targets this week with 13. Ray-Ray McCloud also earned himself a dozen looks, pretty much out of nowhere, so I wouldn't count on that continuing when Roethlisberger returns, but it's possible that Mason Rudolph has to start one more game - making McCloud somewhat interesting in PPR leagues next week. Nobody came close to Diggs in air yards, but Tyler Lockett came in a significant step above Tyreek Hill for the second spot, posting just 23 actual yards on his 183 air yards. Tyreek Hill had another stud game bolstered by two scores, but his seven catches for 83 yards line isn't too shabby either.
More encouraging usage for Jerry Jeudy with nine targets, but another disappointing fantasy game with just the 48 yards and no scores. There should be better fantasy outputs for him in weeks ahead, he's a great buy-low right now.
We'll finish up with the target share progression table, we're just looking at the last five weeks for save-spacing purposes.
If you search "BUF" in that table, you'll see how wild of a ride the Bills' target shares have been. Diggs splashed way up to 46% this week after not going above 25% in the last five weeks. That took a significant target share away from everybody else, as Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley posted very disappointing numbers for their fantasy managers this week. Christian McCaffrey ate into D.J. Moore's workload once again, but Moore's 23% target share is still quite respectable. The ceiling is definitely lower on Moore now with CMC healthy, but maybe he'll find some extra holes in the secondary moving forward as defenses really focus on the running back out of the backfield.
Search other team abbreviations and check out the data.
That's all I've got for Week 10, thanks again for being here!
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