RADIO
Welcome RotoBallers to Week 17, the fantasy football Super Bowl. Congrats to all of you that have made it this far -- now let's win that championship!
Below you will find some of my spotlight choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions in Week 17. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass.
Skill position analysis here is based on my PPR rankings. For fantasy's Super Bowl week, I cover weather concerns, plug-in starting choices, and more. We make you feel more confident about what seem to be the most pressure-packed lineup calls of the year.
Running Backs
-Devin Singletary had 78 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD last week. He is aiming for his fourth game in a row with 75+ scrimmage yards and third in a row with a rushing TD. Singletary has run hard in recent weeks, and he has a good draw for the running back position in Week 17. The Falcons are 24th in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to RBs. Buffalo will surely impose its will on Atlanta offensively, and Singletary will be a part of it. He is capable of finishing off a scoring drive with a TD run or rushing for a TD from outside the goal-line area in this matchup. Singletary has been performing respectably recently, which is something new to say about a Bills RB. He is a good flex play for Fantasy Super Bowl week.
-Darrel Williams totaled 85 scrimmage yards week. He has 50+ scrimmage yards in four of his past past games on the road. Williams should be locked in as a fantasy RB2 for your championship week. His versatility had been apparent whenever he was asked to fill in for Clyde Edwards-Helaire earlier this season. Heck, at times he was so impressive, some questioned whether Edwards-Helaire should get his starting job back upon his return. Williams is not as good a pure runner as Edwards-Helaire, but he is a better pure pass-catcher and he runs well in short space near the goal line. Williams had a nine-catch. 101-yard game against Las Vegas and rushed for two TDs vs. Washington this season. Cincinnati ranks 28th in receiving yards allowed to RBs. In any tight decisions involving Williams, you should lean to using him.
Keep talking @Realrclark25 @darrelwilliams_ is a really tremendous back. He runs hard, breaks tackles, has great balance, is very hard to get on the ground, and he’s made plays on check-downs and screens in the passing game, too pic.twitter.com/5ws8auMcHe https://t.co/gsyzyaZD3H
— Phillip V. McGruder (@McGruderPmac) December 28, 2021
Ke'Shawn Vaughn had his first career rushing TD in Week 16. The 55-yard scoring run was certainly a nifty-looking one, and suddenly renewed fantasy interest in Vaughn. Now there is some thought being given to using him as a flex option in Week 17. The Buccaneers face the Jets, who allow the most Fantasy Points Per Game to RBs, and you cannot blame anyone for thinking both Tampa Bay RBs could fare well in a prime matchup. But Ronald Jones had 20 carries last week, and Vaughn, who played on 36 percent of the snaps, had seven. You may submit that the game could become a blowout and Vaughn could add to his numbers in garbage time, but that is a risk on game flow. Volume and touches for established players should always be considered over a risk/reward candidate such as Vaughn. I would not recommend using him over a guy like Ezekiel Elliott, but Vaughn can be started over a totally unproven player who has no upside, such as Dare Ogunbowale in a matchup with the Patriots. Starting Vaughn at a flex spot is a total swing for the fences and depends purely on what your other choice is. If the alternative is another very risky call, too, take the shot with Vaughn.
-Boston Scott notched his fifth rushing TD of the season last week. He has 50+ scrimmage yards in three of his last four games vs. Washington. Jordan Howard is iffy because of a neck stinger, but if he does not play, as his status was still uncertain as of publishing time, that doesn't mean Scott is going to handle a major workload. Kenneth Gainwell, who has played well at times when pressed into action this season, would likely share time with Scott if Howard is not active. Regardless of who he pairs with, Scott will operate in a time share. Scott is an admirable short-yardage runner for a guy listed at 5-6, 203, though, and he is a viable flex play for Week 17. All five of his TD runs this year have come in the red zone. If Howard is out, he should have better chances of getting goal-line chances. Scott is worthy of starting consideration for TD potential on a team that leads the NFL in run/pass ratio, but he may not get as much volume as other RBs you may be considering.
SUNDAY UPDATE: Howard is now expected to play. This makes the Eagles backfield more unpredictable, as we could even see a full-blown committee approach, with Gainwell as a pass-catcher. Howard and Scott are both still viable flex plays, but I slightly lean to Howard, as goal-line running is his biggest strength. In tight decisions, though, you may want to opt for an RB with more of a projected heavier workload, as long as that other player is proven.
Wide Receivers
-Justin Jefferson finished with eight catches for 169 yards and two TDs in his Week 11 meeting with Green Bay. Obviously such totals seem unapproachable in a Week 17 rematch with significant weather concerns and a backup QB running the Minnesota offense, Tweets like this one from legendary fantasy analyst Paul Charchian only make the outlook seem bleaker for Jefferson.
The Vikings-Packers game is expected to be 5 degrees at kickoff. The average NFL passing game over the last 8 years in single-digit weather or colder: 16 completions, 160 yards, 0.3 touchdowns.
— Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian) December 29, 2021
The forecast has changed slightly since Paul first shared those facts, but the concerns remain the same. Do you bench Jefferson in your Fantasy Super Bowl week, and if so, who for? I would sit him for another WR who can likely provide a better statistical floor, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown or Amari Cooper, But benching Jefferson for an unreliable option such as Gabriel Davis or Michael Gallup may be going too far, as those guys are risks to not outperform Jefferson even with his downgraded outlook. Jefferson is not in my Top 20 at WR this week, and lacks his usual statistical ceiling, but he will still be dangerous enough to make notable contributions even on a few receptions.
-Christian Kirk had two receiving TDs in his last meeting with the Cowboys in 2020. He had seven catches last week and has career bests in catches (69) and receiving yards (860) in 2021. Working out of the slot, Kirk can possibly avoid Trevon Diggs often and should be a productive WR3 play in Week 17. He has 16 receptions on 21 targets in his last two games. Dallas does rank 25th in receiving yards allowed to WRs.
-Amon-Ra St. Brown led the Lions with nine receptions for 91 yards and a TD last week. He is the third rookie all-time with eight or more catches and a TD in three games. St. Brown is the second rookie ever with eight or more catches in four straight games. He ranks second among rookies with 74 receptions in 2021. Some people are still finding it hard to put trust in a first-year pass-catcher who plays for the Lions. But St. Brown continued to perform at a higher level despite a QB change and he is playing too well to be reserved when it counts the most in your fantasy season.
-Gabriel Davis has four TD receptions in his last three games played. As we indicated, Davis is not a surefire starter, but he is indeed a viable WR3 play for this week for those who need a final postseason game streamer. No, you should not play Davis over a more reliable or established option, and the Buffalo pass-catching crew does feature other notable targets. Davis, though, has gained the confidence of Josh Allen in scoring situations, as five of his six TD catches have come in the red zone. Davis also averages 16.2 yards per catch, so big plays are always possible, too. The Falcons are 29th in FFPG allowed to WRs. Davis is a very tempting upside play even if he does carry some risk of not providing a certain statistical floor.
Quarterback and Tight End
-In two games where he has played extensively this season, Trey Lance completed under 52 percent of his passing attempts in each, and he totaled two TD passes with one interception. He did rush for 130 yards in those games. Lance looked erratic as a passer yet displayed his considerable upside as a runner. The Texans demonstrated last week that they won’t be easily handled. I would not start Lance over a more proven guy who has helped take your team this far, such as Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray, despite his recent shakiness. Hurts is still a work in progress despite the considerable rushing promise. Yet I would certainly start Hurts over other possible streamers such as Tyler Huntley, who gets a tough draw vs. the Rams, or Taysom Hill, who has a much less impressive pass-catching crew.
-Gerald Everett had his career-high fourth receiving TD of the season last week. The Lions have allowed the third-most FFPG to TEs over the past four weeks, and Everett scored a season-high 16.8 Fantasy Points last week. He has registered double-figure PPR performances in four of his last five games.
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