RADIO
Welcome to the fifth week of the 2021 season, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight choices and players to go with when dealing with tough lineup decisions in Week 5. You may be faced with some challenging RB calls this week, so we help out in those instances.
These choices are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to all of my ranks in all formats, plus a full roster of tools and analysis for the 2021 season. Skill position picks here are based on my PPR rankings.
The Giants-Cowboys matchup will be interesting to monitor in terms of whether one star WR can show his best form again, and if a surprising top QB so far can avoid reverting to the type of player he was until recently.
Running Backs
-If you are dealing with uncertainty from the Minnesota and Cincinnati RBs, it's best to pivot out of the situations rather than engage in risky guesswork. Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon may be limited, and I always say when in doubt, you should definitely go with a healthy alternative. The workloads for Alexander Mattison and Samaje Perine won't be clear, either. Avoid both backfields today if you can.
UPDATE: Cook is out. Mattison is now a strong RB2 play vs. DET. I have him as RB13.
-Leonard Fournette had a season-high 138 scrimmage yards (91 rushing) in Week 4. This week, Tampa Bay faces Miami, which ranks 27th in the NFL in rushing defense. Fournette appears to be the preferred ball carrier for the Buccaneers right now. He had 20 attempts last week and the weakness of the Dolphins defense is certainly on the ground, so Fournette should be considered for flex usage this week.
-Damien Williams had 70 scrimmage yards (55 rushing) and his first TD of the season last week and now gets the expanded role as a starter. The Raiders are 23rd in rushing defense, so this should be a pretty good draw for Williams. We know what we get from Williams. When he starts, he is versatile and can be dynamic. But durability has often been an issue, so if you added Williams expecting him to fill a RB2 hole for a few weeks, do roster Khalil Herbert as fantasy insurance. This week, though, confidently plug in Williams as your RB2.
-Trey Sermon rushed for 89 yards against Seattle, but it looks like Elijah Mitchell will return for the 49ers this week. Sermon ran well last week, but so far, it has looked like Mitchell is more capable of hitting a big play. That could give him the edge in terms of the fantasy outlook, even if the two RBs share carries. If you have to go with one San Francisco RB this week, I would lean to Mitchell. The 49ers always utilize more than one RB, but Kyle Shanahan seemed to prefer Mitchell before he was injured.
-Zack Moss has now scored in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most Fantasy Points Per Game to running backs, and are the worst team in the AFC against the run. They have allowed five rushing TDs to RBs so far this season. If you are facing a tight decision between Moss and another RB who is not guaranteed more than a split of a workload, go with Moss. He is the prime drive finisher at RB for what is arguably the best offense in the AFC, and Sunday night’s marquee showdown with the Chiefs certainly looks like a big shootout. The over/under at Caesars Sportsbooks is 56.5. Moss also rushed for 61 yards last week and could better that total vs. Kansas City in addition to finding the end zone.
Red zone snap rate leaders at the RB position in Week 4:
100% — Alvin Kamara
91% — James Robinson
88% — Malcolm Brown
83% — Darrell Henderson, Saquon Barkley
78% — Zack Moss, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery
77% — Derrick Henry
75% — Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard
71% — Damien Harris— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
-The Eagles are sixth in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Chuba Hubbard ran well enough early against Dallas last week before he was scripted out of the mix. Hubbard is aiming for his third consecutive game with 70-plus scrimmage yards. You should not expect too much from Hubbard in the receiving game, yet he should post at least adequate totals this week to satisfy needs as a RB2 if needed, or even more ideally as a flex. The Panthers need the ground game to operate at least respectably to ease pressure on Sam Darnold. He has been sacked 11 times and will function better if Hubbard can ease some pressure on him. Carolina will likely look to establish optimum offensive balance with Hubbard, and if all starts to click as planned, Hubbard will have some TD potential as well.
Wide Receivers
-Corey Davis had a season-high 111 receiving yards and Jamison Crowder had four receptions for 61 yards and a TD in Week 4. Both Jets WRs are good starts against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed seven receiving TDs, tied for second-most in the NFL so far this season.
-Ja'Marr Chase has scored in three of his first four NFL games. Statistically, Green Bay looks like a challenging matchup on paper, as the Packers have allowed 518 receiving yards to WRs, which has been fourth best so far. But the Pack allowed a 45-yard TD catch last week to Pittsburgh, and the Green Bay secondary looks more vulnerable overall without Jaire Alexander. Last week, Chase had a season-high six receptions and he is a threat to break a big play every week, regardless of opponent. Keep him locked in at your WR2 spot, and consider Chase a nice luxury if he is your WR3. Tee Higgins is expected to return, but Chase should continue to challenge the opposition as a big-play man.
Diontae Johnson on Jaire Alexander ???pic.twitter.com/akYmCML0mD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 3, 2021
-Brandin Cooks is just one of two NFL WRs with five-plus catches in the first four weeks of the season. The Patriots are fifth-best in FFPG allowed to WRs, though, and Bill Belichick faces a rookie QB who is really struggling, and has only one real weapon to take away. If you have another quality WR3 option, you should be benching Cooks this week.
-Marvin Jones has five-plus receptions in three of four games so far this year. The Titans have allowed the most FFPG to WRs among AFC teams so far this season. Trevor Lawrence started to show real signs of progress last week and will be able to get the ball frequently to Jones and Laviska Shenault vs. Tennessee. Jones will be the downfield playmaker and prime TD threat, while Shenault will be a yardage after the catch producer. Both Jaguars WRs are good WR3 starts.
-CeeDee Lamb had had eight receptions for a career-high 124 yards in his last home meeting with the Giants. Lamb won’t be held down for long, especially as key performer in the NFC’s best offense. Expect Dak Prescott to make it a point to get Lamb heavily involved this week, especially early.
Tight Ends and Quarterbacks
-Mike Gesicki had his first TD catch of the season last week and he has 15 receptions in the past two games. Tampa Bay has allowed the most FFPG to TEs among NFC teams. Gesicki should be started as your Fantasy TE1 in Week 5.
-The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most FFPG to TEs so far this year, but have allowed only one TD catch to the position. Overlook that last stat, because Dawson Knox is emerging as a fantasy TE1. Buffalo wanted Knox to take more strides forward this season, and he certainly has.
-Daniel Jones passed for a career-high 402 yards last week and has started to look like an improved downfield passer. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most FFPG to QBs, and Jones deserves back-end fantasy QB1 consideration this week.
-Jalen Hurts passed for a career-high 387 yards in Week 4, and he has thrown for 300-plus yards in four of his eight career starts. The Panthers have allowed an NFC-low 725 passing yards. They have also had a mostly friendly schedule, so I expect another good outing from Hurts this week.
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