RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~24 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~32
ANALYSIS: A pretty vanilla take as many analysts have been screaming about Kyle Pitts from the rooftops all offseason, he is simply a generational talent that is too great to ignore. While many of you are probably sick and tired of hearing about him, the landscape is simply just too ripe for Pitts to not have a breakout this upcoming season.
Here is a little glimpse of why Pitts will forever change the tight end position as we know it based on his 2021 stats:
- 78% of snaps lined out wide or in the slot (1st among TEs per PFF)
- 1188 air yards (2nd)
- 11.2 ADOT (1st)
- 4th in TE routes run
- Pass blocked on just 2.7% of passing plays
- 4.44 forty-yard dash time
At the end of the day, Pitts is really just a wide receiver who happens to qualify as a tight end. While he is a very good blocker, Pitts is simply too great of a downfield threat for the Falcons to feature him all that much as a blocker.
One of the biggest reasons the naysayers have been saying to fade Kyle Pitts this year is because of his quarterback in Atlanta. While Marcus Mariota was replaced in Tennessee, it is easy to forget that he was still the number two overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has supported tight ends for fantasy purposes in the past.
Delanie Walker had three straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards from 2014 to 2016 with Mariota in Tennessee. Walker's best season was in 2015 when he had 94 receptions for 1,088 yards and six TDs, which was good for an overall TE2 finish in full PPR leagues. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how much more athletic a young Kyle Pitts is compared to a then 31-year-old Walker!
While it has been 2+ seasons since Mariota has been a starter, he is already familiar with head coach Arthur Smith's system in Atlanta and is still just 28 years old, which we know is still prime age for an NFL quarterback.
The Falcons drafted USC wide receiver Drake London with the eighth overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. London is a big-bodied receiver at 6 foot 5 inches and it is important that he is on the field to help draw attention away from Pitts as it will be nearly impossible for defenses to cover both of them at the same time.
While the Vegas sportsbooks aren't projecting much for the Falcons in terms of wins for 2022, there is a chance they can catch lightning in a bottle with Mariota and we know the pass-happy game scripts will be there in the second halves of games. The only thing that could derail Pitts' fantasy breakout in 2022 is simply an injury or a late-season transition to Desmond Ridder that doesn't go so well.
One year from now, we will be looking back on 2021 as "the good ole days" of when Pitts was readily available in the third round of fantasy drafts as he is likely a first-round pick come 2023 draft season.
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