Lance McCullers Jr. (SP, HOU) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~125

CURRENT ADP:  152

ANALYSIS: Lance McCullers is more valuable in rotisserie leagues than H2H leagues because he has never thrown more than 125.2 innings in a single season at the major league level. That fact alone may have you wondering why I pegged him as a sleeper. The reason is that when healthy, McCullers is a top-15 pitcher with a chance at more. McCullers did not have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last season (118.2 IP), but among pitchers with at least 110 IP, his 3.10 FIP ranked in the top-10. His K%, K-BB%, and K/BB all ranked in the top-30 of starting pitchers last season. And on top of all this, McCullers’ 61.3% ground ball rate ranked fourth in all of baseball.

These numbers are not anomalous. Perhaps the ground ball rate was a little high, but McCullers has a 54.5% ground ball rate for his career to go along with a 3.14 FIP, 26.5% K%, and 3.60 ERA. The ground ball rate, FIP, and K% all rank in the top-12 among pitchers who have 300 innings pitched since 2015, the year McCullers entered the league.

The Astros righty is probably going to get injured at some point this season. Until that point, McCullers is a top-15 pitcher available at the price of someone at the back end of the top 40. If you’re in a H2H league, snap McCullers up in a few rounds before his ADP and reap the benefits until he gets injured. Once he does, you can use his roster spot as a streaming slot. The combination of McCullers and whoever you end up streaming in his spot will likely end the season as a top-30 pitcher for the price of much less. In H2H leagues, McCullers is still valuable but perhaps not as valuable as in roto. Even still, scooping him up ahead of his ADP would be a wise decision.