RADIO
It's officially time for Thanksgiving football, which means the fantasy playoffs are on the horizon! For some leagues, the trade deadline has already passed, meaning you're stuck with the team you have. For other leagues where that isn't the case, though, there are still opportunities to make reinforcements via trades.
Today, we'll look at five players who you should be looking to target via trade. Why? All of them look poised for strong performances during the fantasy playoffs.
Right now, the price to acquire them is lower than it should be, making now the perfect time to trade for them. If all goes well, these players could be true league winners. Who are they? Let's get right into it!
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RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Ever since he was drafted in the second round, we've been waiting for Javonte Williams to take sole possession of the Broncos' backfield touches. However, to this point, the rookie has been splitting touches with Melvin Gordon III, who has been the more productive fantasy running back to this point.
However, there are reasons to believe this is changing. Gordon made a costly fumble in Week 10 and from there, Williams dominated the snap share. For the first time this season, he out-snapped Gordon by a decent margin, playing 33 of the snaps compared to Gordon's 25. Then, you add in the post-bye rookie bump, and we could be seeing Williams start to pull away as the lead ball-carrier in this backfield.
If that's the case, then the league is in for a rude awakening about what Williams can accomplish with the ball in his hands. For the season, his 3.67 yards after contact/attempt rank fourth amongst running backs, while his 38 missed tackles rank third. Meanwhile, he's also been effective as a breakaway runner; his 18 carries of 10+ yards is tied-eighth at the running back position. Just as a ball carrier, Williams shows flashes of Nick Chubb-esque ability, and with more carries, his production could surprise some people. Well, at least the people who aren't away of what he's capable of.
Then, there is Williams' finishing schedule. He'll be in a position to get off to the fast start with the Chargers and Chiefs, but his playoff schedule is also very favorable: Lions, Bengals, Raiders, Chargers. All of these teams rank in the top-10 in points allowed to running backs this season, while none of these defenses have been consistently effective this season. Thus, there's also some touchdown upside here.
Even if Williams still splits carries with Gordon, the schedule is favorable enough for him to serve as a low-end RB2 for the rest of the season. However, the ceiling is much higher if he takes the reigns of this backfield. Trading him requires some projection, but in my opinion, that projection is a smart one to make. Trade for him now, and don't look back!
TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
The tight end position is always in flux, for many reasons. One, the overall depth of the position isn't always the strongest. Also, development from college to pro tends to take a while; we need to be patient with players coming out of college.
That's been the case for Dawson Knox. The 25-year-old was a non-factor with 1.07 yards/route run over his first two seasons in the NFL, but that has completely changed this season. His yards/route run is up to 1.57 and he's already set a career-high mark in touchdowns (five).
However, it's his usage that has changed the most. Last season, Buffalo opted for a lot of four-receiver sets, but they've started to utilize a lot more traditional three-receiver, one tight end sets (11 personnel) this season. They also remain the pass-heaviest team in the NFL, so even though there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, that can be done.
This brings me to Knox's performance in Buffalo's 41-15 loss to the Colts on Sunday. On the surface, it was a tough game for the team, but not for Knox, who caught six passes for 80 yards, equating to 14 PPR fantasy points. There's more here to like, though. Not only did he receive a career-high 10 targets, but he also played on 55 of the team's 56 snaps, also a career-best rate for him (98%). With that, I think it's safe to say he's fully healthy after missing two weeks due to injury. It also doesn't hurt that the schedule includes the Bucs, who have struggled against tight ends, and the Falcons, who are a poor defense and present tons of touchdown upside for Knox.
The Bills are going to need Knox to come through if they're going to hold onto the AFC East from the Patriots. If all goes well, he can also come through for your fantasy team if you trade for him now. His underlying usage is very intriguing, and before more spike weeks come, make sure to trade for him! Rather than chasing the mystery inside the box, settle with Knox!
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Coming into the season, we were envisioning great things for the Seahawks' offense. Mainly the trio of Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. According to Fantasy Data, Metcalf was the WR6 in average draft position leading up to the season. Thus, it's safe to say his combined 9.2 fantasy points over the past two weeks isn't going to cut it.
The good news? His underlying usage has been strong. Metcalf has received 15 combined targets in that span in addition to three end-zone targets. As such, he's finished with PFF expected points totals of 12.9 and 11.6, respectively. That may not seem overly impressive, but remember that Metcalf, as someone who thrives with a vertical route tree, is a player that generally exceeds his expected points totals. With that in mind, he's not just getting unlucky; he's severely underperforming expectations.
At some point, Wilson is going to start to be a more efficient quarterback coming back from the thumb injury. If all goes well, that can start with a favorable matchup against the Washington Football Team defense. Even if not, Metcalf's consistent big-play ability gives him the ceiling worth chasing as a low-end WR1. He'll face the Lions, Texans, and Bears during the fantasy playoffs, which is quite the nice stretch of games, especially for touchdown upside.
Metcalf is a popular name, but fantasy managers might be getting tired of his struggles after back-to-back poor weeks. There is reason to believe better days are ahead for him in the future, so before it's too late, make the move to trade for him! If all goes as planned, he could be the missing piece to put you over the top!
QB Matthew Stafford and RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
With just 26 combined points in their past two games and back-to-back losses, it's safe to say the Rams haven't lived up to their billing as an elite offense in recent weeks. However, coming off the bye, there is a reason for optimism moving forward.
As discussed here, the Rams' issues offensively are tied to two factors: poor turnover luck and struggles on third down. Luckily, both of these factors are bound to regress over time, which leads to better game scripts. That's big for both of these players producing more fantasy points moving forward.
Let us start with Matthew Stafford. The former Lions quarterback has been inefficient with just 6.03 yards/pass attempt during their losing streak, but there is reason to expect better results in the future. As evidenced by his long time to throw (2.79 seconds, 2.77 seconds), he's clearly pressing in order to lead a comeback, while the team hasn't been able to run play-action passes at the normal rate. This all leads to receivers not getting open and Stafford still forcing it to them, leading to an inefficient offense. Remember, in the three weeks prior, Stafford has been the QB4, QB3, and QB6, respectively. There's a ceiling to chase here, and if you need a quarterback, he can be the buy-low solution for you down the stretch.
Then, there is Henderson. The negative game scripts have greatly affected him; his rushing volume is down. In both of the team's losses, he set season-lows in overall rush attempts (11 in Week 9, five in Week 10), which has led to him finishing with under 7.5 fantasy points in both of those games. The bright side? With better game scripts, his workload will increase, leading to him performing more like the fantasy asset he was earlier in the season. Over the first eight weeks of the season, Henderson's 18.1 expected fantasy points ranked seventh at the position. I don't know about you, but that speaks to him continuing to be an RB1 moving forward.
The Cardinals have a poor run defense, while the Seahawks, Vikings, and Ravens have all had their issues at times defensively this season. Thus, we should fully expect Stafford and Henderson to get back on track down the stretch here. If a fantasy manager of one of these players is worried about their recent performance combined with the loss of receiver Robert Woods, now is the time to acquire one or two top-10 players at their respective positions.
Overview
Making smart trades requires you to buy assets at their lowest point. That's our main exercise here. All of these five players are likely to perform better than they have as of late and can be no-brainer starting options moving forward. In fact, they may be league winners if all goes well! With that being possible, now is the time to pull a trigger when it comes to trading for them.
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