RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~115 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~132
ANALYSIS: Sean Payton’s specific blueprint for redesigning the New Orleans offense remains highly uncertain as the Saints enter Week 1 without Drew Brees under center. However, the Saints will be navigating through the regular season with a dearth of proven receiving weaponry beyond Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. We knew this would become a factor in this year’s aerial attack even if both players had remained in the lineup.
Now, Thomas will be sidelined for multiple weeks following his ankle surgery. This intensifies the shortage of dependable receiving options following the departures of Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook. The tandem had combined for 142 targets, 98 receptions, 1,230 yards, 1,388 air yards, and 12 touchdowns in 2020, and the challenge of replacing those two players has been compounded by the absence of Thomas. This reduction of resources leaves Marquez Callaway and Juwan Johnson as the most logical recipients for redistributed targets. This also increases the likelihood that Payton will expand his reliance on the Saints’ ground game. That will involve Kamara, who should approach last season’s 19.6 touches per game average regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is spearheading the offense. But it could also provide Murray with a steady role while he operates with favorable weekly touch totals.
Murray will be operating behind one of the NFL’s most effective offensive lines, which is anchored by tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead. This supplies a massive incentive for Payton to rely on this unit, which can reduce the impact of the depleted receiving arsenal. That could expand Murray’s workload beyond the 11.2 touches per game that he has averaged in two seasons with the Saints. However, it also remains possible that Tony Jones Jr. will leapfrog Murray after his promising performances during the preseason.
UPDATE: Murray made the 53-man roster, dispelling rumors that he'd be cut due to the strong preseason from Tony Jones. It remains to be seen if Jones will be eating into Murray's backup-role touches, but we have to assume that the Saints kept the veteran around for a reason until proven otherwise. As noted above, the Saints could be in line for an increase in their run rate with the absence of Michael Thomas in the early part of the season. Jameis Winston won the starting quarterback job and he's as big a gunslinger as anyone, but they just don't appear to have the weapons to feature a heavy passing attack at the moment.
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