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Putting the "O" in R.O.I.D.S to Find Late Round Sleepers

 

My Apologies

Let me start by offering my most sincere apology. I should not have offered nudes of my Dad, as I learned they are almost impossible to get. He has a beard and is quite wily.

Nevertheless, in an attempt to reconcile, I offer a scintillating and sensual description of two of the downright nastiest, skankiest late round sleepers in all of fantasy baseball: Ike Davis and Adam Lind.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “What a terrible idea for a story,” and honestly, I couldn't agree more. Ike Davis and Adam Lind are some boring ass sleepers. But, for some not very compelling reasons, I believe each has a tantalizing opportunity. And that brings me to the letter "O," of my favorite semi-offensive, fantasy baseball related acronym, R.O.I.D.S. To find the athletes that will outperform their ADP, consider how Ike Davis and Adam Lind have a favorable “O,” for Opportunity, heading into 2015.

 

Putting The "O" in R.O.I.D.S.

Doesn't it just seem like Lind belongs in Milwaukee, with all the cheap beer and sausage races?

This year, Lind is the starting first baseman, and the Brewers are hoping for 140 games out of him. In 2013, while splitting time at first, the Adam Bomb hit .288/.357/.497 with 23 HR. Six years ago, Lind hit 35 HR and 114 RBI.

He seems old, but he'll only turn 32 in July. Translation: he is younger than Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Lind isn’t being ranked by anyone in the top 250, not even Tristan Cockcroft. Reason is, last year he turned into a contact guy with decent average. If he can improve his fly ball rate and stop being terrible against lefties, he will serendipitously hit 30 home runs. I feel it in my plums.

Steamer projects Lind’s 2015 weighted on base average (wOBA) to be .346, slightly above what they project for David Wright. In 2013 Lind’s wOBA was an impressive .368 in 521 AB’s. That mark ranks him 26th in all MLB ahead of Stanton and Mike Napoli. Streamer also projects a triple slash of .272/.339/.451 with power numbers comparable to Buster Posey. I see Lind finishing the year somewhere between Posey and a Kendrys Morales basement.

Elsewhere, in pre-spring training fantasy baseball, "Vanilla Ike" Davis is preparing for his comeback tour (hopefully with lots of Primobolan and Adderall).

After Ike was traded to the A’s for international draft slots, you would think he has considerable motivation to improve. In 2010, Davis was the fourth prospect in the Met's system. He knocked in 19 HR his rookie year and followed that up with 32 HR and 90 RBI in 2012. Since then, Davis has been laughable and getting traded for slots makes it even funnier. I honestly didn't know that was a thing.

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In 2013, Davis was atrocious at the plate batting .205/.326/.334 with 9 HR in 377 AB’s. After a season like that, it's hard to hope he will ever figure it out. Billy Beane obviously brought him in for his potential gold glove caliber defense, but they must also have a confident plan for his bat. Why else would the A’s have inexplicably traded Brandon Moss to Cleveland for prospect Joe Wendle?

And just like that, Vanilla Ike becomes Oakland’s primary first baseman. It will be interesting to see if the A’s can fix him. I don't have a stat that could even attempt to prove this, but after getting the most out of Kazmir, Crisp, Moss, Donaldson and Jed Lowrie, I believe they will fix Davis.

 

Who Else?

There are plenty of options when you consider players with a new opportunity. Jason Heyward and Mat Latos are entering contract years on new teams. They would also be good choices when considering the “O” in R.O.I.D.S., but they just lack the late round sleeper sex appeal of a Lind or Davis.

Tune in next week as we explore the “I” in R.O.I.D.S. I will unleash yet another mind blowing fantasy baseball sleeper, and as an added bonus, if anyone comments on the story (you have to login!), I promise to include a vine of me trying to do this:

 

 




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