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A lot of people take a laissez-faire approach to quarterbacks in fantasy. They'll wait until some predetermined round where they want to get their first QB and then they'll just take whoever is left then.
And, I mean, hey -- that's fine. You could win a league that way. But if you manage to make the perfect QB pick in the later rounds, that path to winning a league gets much more clear. Remember when Patrick Mahomes was entering his second season after sitting out all year as a rookie and was getting picked past round 10? How about Lamar Jackson as a late-round flier in 2019 or when Justin Herbert was a league-winner last year?
Who'll be 2021's late-round, league-winning quarterbacks? Let's examine three potential options, all of whom are currently being drafted outside of the top 150 per NFFC's current ADP.
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Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints
ADP: 168.16, QB26
It'll probably be a while before we truly know who the quarterback is in New Orleans, but the fact he re-signed in New Orleans back in March means that Winston had to think he had a very, very good shot at winning the job over Taysom Hill.
He should think that because Jameis Winston is a better quarterback than Taysom Hill.
Sure, Hill's a fun player who can hold his own at quarterback, but the Saints starting Hill over the course of a full season just doesn't make sense to me. You have Michael Thomas. You have a quarterback with the arm strength of Jameis Winston. Hill won't be starting.
And if Winston does win the starting job as I expect, his ADP is just stupidly low. Post-Lasik surgery Winston projects to be a yardage machine with that arm. I mean, look at this throw, which was on a trick play of all things:
The last time Winston was an NFL starter, he threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns. Yes, he also led the league with 30 interceptions, posting the first-ever 30/30 season in NFL history, but I think we should attribute some of that to the nature of the Bruce Arians offense -- I mean, in 2020 Tom Brady threw interceptions on 2.0 percent of his throws, his highest mark since 2011. Brady's led the league in lowest interception rate four times and as recently as 2016.
And also...maybe we can attribute some of what Winston did to the vision issues?
But even with all of that, Winston finished as the fantasy QB5. Obviously, a Sean Payton offense isn't a Bruce Arians offense, but an aging Drew Brees was QB8 in 2018, the last time he played at least 15 games in a season.
If Payton trusts Winston to run the full offense in 2021, there's a ton of upside here, with Winston a potential top-10 fantasy quarterback. If you can get a top-10 guy at this draft stock, wow!
Cam Newton - New England Patriots
ADP: 210.32, QB32
Cam Newton is being drafted as the QB32 right now. Two big reasons for that: first, Cam Newton is viewed as an injury risk and fantasy managers are baking that concern into their drafting right now, even though he played 15 of 16 games last year. Second, the Patriots spent a first-round pick on Alabama quarterback Mac Jones.
It's hard to know what Bill Belichick's strategy is with rookie quarterbacks, because it's been a long time since he had to concern himself with finding a young passer. Having Tom Brady will do that.
But I'd expect the Patriots to at least start the year with Newton at quarterback. Even if he isn't a traditional league winner -- I know we usually talk about that phrase applying to players who win you playoff matchups -- he can be a strong early-season option who helps ensure you get your team into the postseason.
Let's not forget that last season, Newton started 15 games and had 12 rushing touchdowns. He only threw for eight touchdowns, which was by far his worst mark over a full season, with his previous low being 18. But even with a one-game absence because of COVID (and potentially some lingering aftereffects considering he had five interceptions in the two games after he returned???) and that low touchdown number, Newton's rushing ability helped make him the QB16.
New England added some weapons for Newton. Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne come over at wideout, but the big impact is at tight end, as they added Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Suddenly, there are two really good tight ends to help Newton move the chains and to increase his effectiveness when he's down in the red zone and isn't quite close enough to the end zone to barrel his way in for a rushing score.
The Patriots made a lot of strides offensively to build a team that'll pass the ball better than in 2020. Add in Newton's rushing upside and cross your fingers that he stays healthy and you have a really high ceiling for a guy being drafted as the QB32 right now.
Tyrod Taylor - Houston Texans
ADP: 279.87, QB38
Alright, hear me out here.
I think we can safely rule Deshaun Watson out for 2021. Between his trade demand and the numerous sexual assault allegations, Watson won't be playing for the Texans this year.
That leaves Houston with three options at quarterback: Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills.
Let's rule Driskel out. He's already 28, so I doubt he's in Houston's long-term plan, and he's not the best QB on the roster, so there's no real reason to play him.
That leaves Tyrod and Mills. Mills is a really interesting prospect, but he's also a third-round pick who only played five games last season because the pandemic led to a shortened Pac-12 season. It's hard to imagine he's ready to start off the bat, and even if things end up being a disaster in Houston, throwing Mills to the wolves isn't the best plan.
I've long been a fan of Taylor. In the three seasons where he's started at least 14 games, he was QB16 twice and QB8 in 2016. In 2018, his Browns career got off to a rocky start, but he did have a game in which he was 22-for-30 for 246 yards with a touchdown and a pick, plus 26 rushing yards. And his one start last year saw him pass for 208 yards before a punctured lung led to Justin Herbert taking over.
In Houston, Taylor will have ample chances to run the ball, but he also has a pretty underrated group of pass catchers to help him out. There's Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, plus some solid receiving backs in David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay. This team will likely lean on the run, which should open up chances for Taylor in play action.
Also relevant is that Taylor doesn't throw a lot of picks. In 2017, he had the league's lowest interception rate. He won't lose you fantasy points that way. He also had 14 rushing touchdowns during that three-year stretch as the Bills starter, and he rushed at least 84 times each season.
Taylor's rushing upside mixed with a decent passing situation makes him someone you can get on the waiver wire for free and who has a ton of upside without too much downside.
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