Late-Round Lotto Tickets - Running Back

The first few rounds of a fantasy football draft are simple. The order in which players are selected might change a bit here and there but there's not a great deal of strategy required. You hope your stud RB stays healthy, decide if you want to go RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-WR... the easy stuff.

The real challenge is finding the right players in the mid-to-late rounds that can be contributors and, potentially, breakouts. Technically, any late-round running back could provide value if things break right. More accurately, if things break wrong for a team that faces multiple injuries at running back, the third or fourth-string back has a chance to do something. That's how you get those weeks that come out of nowhere from guys like Jeff Wilson Jr., Samaje Perine, Salvon Ahmed, etc. Then there are the undrafted players who wind up providing year-long value like James Robinson or Mike Davis that take advantage of adverse situations.

It's impossible to predict the future, but based on what we know so far, the following running backs are in prime position to pay off as late-round picks in fantasy drafts. I'll name some of my favorite late-round RBs and why they are worth picking.

Xavier Jones, Los Angeles Rams

Let's begin with an obvious candidate. Cam Akers is out for the year with a torn Achilles, so Darrell Henderson returns to a starting role. That said, there is a 0% chance that he sees 100% of the touches in this backfield, so someone else has to help carry the load. In fact, recent reports have already suggested that the Rams will look to manage his workload throughout the season with Sean McVay throwing out the term "pitch count" referring to keeping Henderson fresh.

First in line appears to be Xavier Jones, an undrafted free agent last year out of SMU. He ran for 1,276 yards and scored 25 total touchdowns in his senior year and earned a roster spot on the Rams despite not being invited to the NFL Combine. He didn't see a snap last year but is almost sure to have a defined role of some sort.

Sean McVay says he’s “really been encouraged” by Xavier Jones in training camp thus far. https://t.co/Q6BrmVykLA

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) August 3, 2021

Whoever gets touches in this backfield will have value and the smart money is on Jones right now. Jake Funk has the talent but also a long history of injuries. Raymond Calais is undersized and mostly going to be used on special teams. Jones will start as the backup to Henderson and becomes an intriguing insurance policy if things get worse for the Rams and Henderson goes down.

Qadree Ollison, Atlanta Falcons

New year, new backfield, new coach. Todd Gurley is gone and so is Julio Jones. The Falcons will establish a new identity on offense, especially in the running game with a void at running back. While Mike Davis is the presumptive favorite to start, it's doubtful he resembles a workhorse back. Even last year in a full-time role for Carolina with Christian McCaffrey sidelined most of the year, Davis only averaged 11 carries per game. There's room for another tailback to make noise.

The RB2 on this team appears to be Ollison now that Ito Smith is gone. He scored four times as a rookie in 2019 before falling off the map in 2020 with one carry all season. The arrival of Arthur Smith may breathe new life into his value, though. Keep in mind that Smith comes over from Tennessee, where the lead back is a fellow by the name of Derrick Henry. If you're not familiar, he's in the "big back" mold at 6'3", 247 lb. Ollison doesn't stand quite that tall at only 231 pounds but he is a bruiser just the same. That is a perfect fit for this offense which frequents the red zone and prefers to run it there.

Todd Gurley was a disappointment last year because his production didn't match name value but one thing he did was score touchdowns with nine in 15 games. That's because he was fifth in the league in red-zone rush attempts. If Ollison inherits just half of those valuable carries, he can be a consistent scoring threat that provides value in standard leagues. Ollison doesn't have the juice to be a primary ball-carrier but he's the type of late RB that will actually produce points rather than rotting on the bench.

Larry Rountree III, Los Angeles Chargers

This might seem like Joshua Kelley all over again... and it very well could be. We don't know if Rountree will be productive as a pro after four good but unspectacular seasons at Missouri. Most importantly, we don't know if he will beat out the aforementioned Kelley or Justin Jackson on the RB depth chart to even get a shot. As a sixth-round pick, not much is expected and he's an injury or bad performance away from not making the roster. But the upside is worth a shot because a good preseason could mean he becomes the backup to Austin Ekeler and high-end handcuff. That's why we call them lottery tickets, after all.

Rountree averaged five yards per carry at Mizzou but wasn't much of a pass-catcher. At 5'11" at 211 lb, his stature matches Kelley almost exactly.

Research done by Kevin Cole of PFF.com brought an interesting point to light. Although his metrics look disappointing, it doesn't mean we should discount his future value.

"It’s fair to call Rountree a lacking athlete, though not disqualifying. Athleticism matters for running backs, though many of his similarly lacking comps showed some success in the NFL."

Recently, running backs like Myles Gaskin, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Rex Burkhead have had success in the NFL with a close profile match to Rountree. The opportunity will have to be there in order for Rountree to be relevant but with the failure of Kelley last year (his 0.6 fantasy points per opportunity ranked 125th according to PlayerProfiler) and inability of Jackson to stay healthy, that opportunity could very well present itself. Rountree will be more valuable in non-PPR leagues but rumbling into the end zone still gets you points regardless of format.

Darrynton Evans, Tennessee Titans

I may have been a little too high on Evans last year but now those dynasty shares will finally pay off! The notion that Derrick Henry's workload would taper off turned out to be completely false. It didn't really matter, as Evans was injured much of the year, landing on IR on October 15, just after Week 5, and returning in Week 15. We didn't get a chance to see what Evans is capable of, so here's a quick reminder.

As the feature back for Appalachian State, he posted 1,678 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns as a junior before declaring for the NFL. The Titans made him a third-round pick with hopes that he could complement Henry. As it turned out, it was strictly the Henry show and Evans' rookie season was mostly lost.

Evans might be considered strictly a handcuff based on last year's usage for running backs not named Derrick Henry on the Titans. Incredibly, he carries a 78.8% market share of rush attempts with no other RB seeing even 50 touches. That could change (I know, we said this last year) but not because Henry is going to be saved for the postseason or some fictional narrative. The move to Todd Downing as offensive coordinator after the departure of Arthur Smith could lead to a few more targets going to running backs (likely Evans, not Henry) but won't be a big shift since he's being promoted from within the same franchise.

Still, it makes sense that a healthy Evans gets some rushing work on occasion as well and it wouldn't be shocking if he serves a role similar to what Dion Lewis had a couple of years ago. For those with short memories, Lewis had 155 carries (33% team share) for 517 yards with 59 receptions on 67 targets for 400 yards back in 2018. Evans has been working at receiver as well as running back in the preseason, so the receiving work is promising. Then there's the whole high-end insurance policy aspect. Our Michael Florio is on board with Evans as a high-upside RB to target in double-digit rounds and I'm in 100% agreement.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Although I generally warn against overly crowded backfields, this is the one exception. San Francisco is one of the few offensive systems that can support nearly any running back regardless of talent level with enough opportunities. For this reason, I'm all-in on Trey Sermon but his ADP is getting more costly with each day we draw closer to the season. I will also admit that he's in no guaranteed position to get consistent touches, so the risk is fairly high. There's no risk in spending a last-round pick on Mitchell, who could even be considered the superior athlete.

Mitchell timed at 4.35 on his 40-yard dash during Pro Days, resulting in a Speed Score in the 86th percentile. It's not the end-all-be-all of pro evaluation like some make it out to be but it does help to be crazy fast.

Ragin’ Cajun RB Elijah Mitchell running an unofficial 4.32 in the 40 yard dash at Pro Day. pic.twitter.com/B4IYPFzaPf

— Scott Prather (@Scott_1420) March 29, 2021

Coming out of Louisiana-Lafayette, the subpar talent he faced in college led to low draft stock and a sixth-round selection. Although the team didn't move up in the draft to acquire him as they did with Sermon, once the players take the field that doesn't matter any more. It's all about who performs and who is healthy. Sermon is still the better bet to lead this team in fantasy production but Mitchell is the better value and a lottery ticket well worth the gamble.

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