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Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft high-upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to take risks on a variety of different players, including prospects, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.
It's essential to have at least a handful of sleeper targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Here are some late-round running backs for you to consider drafting this season.
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J.D. McKissic, Commanders, Fantasy Football Outlook
McKissic was so close to being a Buffalo Bill in 2022, but the Washington Commanders plucked him right from the hands of Bills general manager Brandon Beane. It's clear they value McKissic's contributions on the football field or they would have just let him walk in free agency.
Being back with the Commanders is a positive for his fantasy value, given he's finished as the RB32 and RB28 in back-to-back seasons in PPR formats. McKissic's best asset is his ability as a pass-catcher. The Commanders use him on most third downs, in the two-minute drill, and when trailing by multiple scores in the second half of games. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged six targets and 4.9 rush attempts per game.
The expected value of a target in PPR formats is almost a whole point more than a rush attempt (1.6 vs. 0.6). McKissic will not only have solid standalone fantasy value in a complementary role alongside Antonio Gibson, but he'll give you spike weeks if Gibson is forced to miss any time.
In three games without Gibson the last two seasons, McKissic averaged 18 PPR fantasy points per game (and saw 10 targets in two of those three games). With Washington's win total around just eight, he should be busy regardless of whether Gibson misses any games. Prioritize McKissic as a highly valuable backup in PPR formats this season.
Nyheim Hines, Colts, Fantasy Football Outlook
2021 was the year of Jonathan Taylor. As a result, Nyheim Hines became irrelevant from a fantasy perspective, scoring more than nine PPR fantasy points just three times. Compare that to 2020 when he went over 10 PPR points in nine different games. His snap share remained relatively consistent, but his opportunity and production took a hit due to Taylor's workload and efficiency.
Hines went from averaging 4.8 targets on 15.8 routes run per game in 2020 to just 3.3 targets on 11.2 routes run per game in 2021. His rush attempts also decreased, from 5.6 in 2020 to just 3.3 last season. But apparently, that's going to change in 2022. In fact, Colts head coach Frank Reich said "if I was going to be in a fantasy league, I think I would pick Nyheim this year."
Reich admitted the Colts were more run-heavy than he would have liked last season and that he'd like Hines more involved this season. Taylor didn't miss any games in 2021, so we didn't get to see Hines operate as the "starter" in any game. However, in 2020, when Taylor was forced to miss a game against the Titans, Hines rushed 10 times and saw 10 targets. He totaled 17.5 PPR points in that game by hauling in eight receptions.
If he's utilized more often this season as Reich suggests, Hines could have some standalone flex appeal in PPR leagues on a weekly basis. If JT were to miss any time, he could turn into a weekly RB2 due to his usage in the passing game, much as we see with J.D. McKissic in Washington.
James Robinson, Jaguars, Fantasy Football Outlook
Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson had a generally decent season in 2021, pacing the RBs room with 164 rushes for 767 yards and eight scores along with 31 receptions for 222 yards on 46 targets in 14 games.
Sadly, the 23-year-old tore his Achilles at the end of the regular season and has spent the offseason recovering from that injury. While he has been progressing in his recovery, it remains to be seen whether Robinson will be playing in Week 1 and when he will reach 100%.
The Jags certainly have no reason to rush Robinson considering they have 2021 first-round pick Travis Etienne Jr.to lead the backfield for now. While Robinson could be a solid contributor alongside Etienne, there is too much uncertainty right now about his status and that will cloud his fantasy value in drafts this summer.
Consider Robinson as only a stash for now though he may certainly be a solid waiver wire pick at some point in the season if he returns and produces well.
Jamaal Williams, Lions, Fantasy Football Outlook
Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams has made a career out of being the second half of the coveted one-two punch that offensive coordinators love to deploy. During his time in Green Bay, he played behind Aaron Jones, contributing on a per-game basis and as the starter when Jones was injured.
The 27-year-old had fantasy finishes of RB44 in 2018, RB 34 in 2019, and RB 39 in 2020 with Green Bay before finishing as the RB43 last year with the Lions. While the former Packer will not provide standalone weekly value, he will act as a valuable backup in an ascending offense.
Furthermore, the Lions' starter D'Andre Swift missed three games in his rookie season and four games last year, creating question marks about his durability and increasing the chances that Williams will be a starter this season.
Williams was also inactive during two of the games Swift missed but produced 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown, with one reception for nine yards in Week 13 and 19 carries for 77 yards in Week 16, offering top 30 value when filling in as the starter. Williams is currently ranked 54th in Rotoballer's rankings, with an ADP of 155 overall, allowing you to draft him very late or add him to your bench if he goes undrafted.
Tyrion Davis-Price, 49ers, Fantasy Football Outlook
While most analysts projected the 49ers' 2021 third-round pick Trey Sermon to lead the team's backfield last season, it was a sixth-round pick, Elijah Mitchell. He carried the majority workload throughout the year. Fast forward to 2022, and the 49ers spent another third-round choice on running back Tyrion Davis-Price out of LSU.
Davis-Price graded out as the best pass-blocking RB in this draft class, and the 49ers already love getting their FB Kyle Juszczyk involved on the field. Davis-Price is listed at 6'1, 223 lb, and ran a 4.48 40-yd dash, making his skill set much more similar to Sermon (6'0, 215 lb, 4.58) rather than Mitchell (5'10, 200 lb, 4.32). Furthermore, considering that Sermon could only muster just three games where he played on more than 5% of snaps, all of which came in games that Mitchell had missed entirely, it's fair to assume that Trey Sermon was not the talent that we thought he was.
Since 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was hired in 2017, the team has given 100 or more carries to two separate players in every season, except for 2021. Despite never having done so before, due to the team's lack of depth at the position, the 49ers were forced to feed their RB1, which inevitably led to a couple of injuries throughout the season. Elijah Mitchell's 18.8 carries per game were by far the most of any 49ers RB during the Shanahan era.
Now, with the team's recent investment into another RB, I expect Mitchell's carry totals to drop to ~13-15 carries/game while Davis-Price handles the remaining ~5-8 carries/game. Most importantly, Mitchell missed six games in his rookie season with injuries, and if he is injured again, Davis-Price could be set up for a full workload on one of the highest rushing-volume offenses in the league. At his current ADP of RB66, I am more than willing to take an end-of-draft flyer on a potential breakout rookie running back.
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