RADIO
Welcome back to my League of Legends DFS column here at RotoBaller! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. Thanks once again for the outpouring of support from the DFS and ESports communities!
With three more games on the docket tonight in the LPL, and the LCS and LEC playoffs in full swing, it's an excellent time for ESports DFS enthusiasts like myself. The number of contests on FanDuel and DraftKings continues to grow. There are three LPL matches, and two more in the LCK that grace the slate tonight. This is the final full LPL/LCK slate in the Spring regular season, and there are already some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Insomnia Special that pays 100k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, April 16th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: Griffin vs. Hanwa Life Esports (-180)
Griffin is already condemned to the relegation tournament, and so their motivation for this game might be lacking somewhat. Hanwa Life is out of the relegation zone, but also out of the playoffs, so their motivation for this game may be lacking somewhat.
These teams are fairly evenly matched with Griffin being a bit better early, and HLE being a bit better late in the game. Griffin has better vision, but HLE has better objective control. Both teams have closed the split with some surprising wins and close losses.
This match is very close to a toss-up for me, but two things decide it for me. Griffin has a much better winning percentage on the blue side, and I need to save money somewhere if I want to max out on LPL favorites in my GPP lineups. Do not touch this mess in cash games, please.
Viper - ADC ($6,600)
Viper is third on the team in KP% and first in kill share. He might be the only player on the team with 100 DKP upside and is certainly the only one to have hit that this year. Also, he is unlikely to be subbed for as the only bot-laner currently on the LCK team roster.
Tarzan - JNG ($5,600)
Tarzan is first on the team in KP% and third in kill share. This split has been a down year for him due in large part to losing his former mid-laner Chovy to DRX, but he is one member of this current squad that has shown the ability to perform at a high level in the past.
An added plus, he is the only jungler on the LCK team at the moment. Griffin might look to experiment with some player combo's before relegations or roll with the starters who led them on their late-season surge. I don't know now, and I likely will not know before lock tomorrow morning, and neither will anyone else, so if I do look to Griffin, I'm not looking farther than these two picks and the team for salary relief.
6:00 AM: APK Prince vs. Dragon X (-425)
DRX need to sweep this series to leapfrog T1 into second place in the LCK by percentage points. APK has nothing to play for here other than pride, a beautiful building block for next split, and a chance to ruin DRX's day. DRX handled APK in week four 2-0, but since then, APK has put together a very nice second half.
DRX is better early, but APK has better vision numbers and is surprisingly close on their baron takes. DRX should win here, but after seeing them blow their series with DWG only to have DWG blow it right back, you can never be too sure. One of the problems DRX has shown is they are a fairly linear team.
They are at their best when they get early leads and snowball them into the mid-game, and they are among the best at this in the league. If, however, they are not able to get far enough ahead, some of their decisions can be questionable at best. I think DRX win here and they could be a contrarian Gpp play for me this is dog or pass. The LPL teams have more raw upside, and APK has a shot if they can stall out long enough to stymie DRX early leads.
HybriD - ADC ($6,800) and Secret ($4,400)
The bot lane duo leads the team in KP%, and HybirD has been among the statistical leaders in the LCK for ADC's and damage output all season. These two, along with the Team slot will provide enough salary relief to get some more LPL favorites into your lineups.
LPL Matches
3:00 AM: Billibilli Gaming (-300) vs. Victory 5
Victory0-15, or at least they will be when this match is over. BLG is caught up in the log jam of LPL teams at 6-9 series wins. They have the first match of the day the only thing they can do is win out and hope for some help because this is also their final match of the split.
If there are any shenanigans in this match, it will likely be on the side of V5, who desperately tries to stave off a winless split. If anything, I think that adds to the upside for BLG. I think we all know the drill with V5 by now, get as many players in against them as you can. My BLG preferences in order are...
Fofo - MID ($7,800)
Meteor - JNG ($7,200)
Jinjao - ADC ($7,800)
Kingen - TOP ($6,600)
Xinmo - SUP ($5,600)
5:00 AM: LGD vs. Fun Plus Phoenix (-400)
LGD is a step below BLG at 5-8, but they have three games remaining. Unfortunately, they are up against FPX, JDG, and RW. Let's look at FPX; they sit in third currently, and closeout vs. LGD, RW, and TES. They likely won't catch IG, but they can look to pass eStar for second as well as hold off a surging JDG.
I look for FPX to push hard here for the win to try to secure better seeding, and about the only stat that LGD has in their favor is their blue side win percentage is much higher than their red. Not enough to save them on Thursday. Everyone knows that V5 is the worst, but they have been slowly ratcheting down their death per loss and are not that much higher than LGD are right now.
They allowed all four members of BLG not named Xinmo to score 80 DKP just two days ago, and BLG are a much more measured team than FPX. FPX relies a bit more on their team fight ability, and as such, I think they are a contrarian play here over BLG for GPPs on Thursday.
Similar to the BLG plays, we don't have to overthink it. If you've been around at all, you know what FPX is about everyone, but Gimgoon is in play here, but also Gimgoon as he's cheap, and you never know when he's going to bust out Gangplank.
Doinb - MID ($8,000)
Lwx - ADC ($8,200)
Tian - JNG ($6,800)
Crisp - SUP ($6,000)
Gimgoon - TOP ($6,400)
7:00 AM Top Esports vs. eStar (-180)
Everyone is caught up in the hype of Jackeylove's return, myself included I have some very fond memories of BDJ shitting on Fnatic. Guy's I'm here to tell you though he's got some rust to shake off. The signing of Jackey was not a move for spring split.
This addition is a move designed for worlds, and that's not until October. TES is a team that had already struggled with its team fighting synergy before the addition of Jackeylove, with a lot of their games coming down to Knight going one vs. nine. Jackey dropped 11 deaths with a 57% KP vs. V5 I know the kid is a prodigy, but as a wise man once said it's hard to replace the reps and continuity between ADC and SUP as well as with the rest of the team.
If Baolan weren't under contract with IG through 2021, I wouldn't be surprised to see TES pick him up too because he's a world champion without a home due to Puff and Southwind's synergy. Long story short, you've got a team whose strength is fighting as a unit vs. a team whose strength is insane singular talents. It sounds like an IG game but without the stupidity.
I'll take eStar here and their well-honed synergy over the individual ability of a recently cobbled together TES squad, but if you want to hedge on the talent here at discounts on both sides, I don't blame you. One thing I forgot to mention eStar sits second in the league, but this is their final match; they need this match for their best playoff seed. Tes have seen their seeding drop in recent weeks, but they are solidly ahead of RNG and OMG and behind EDG and JDG. Estar needs this one more.
Wink - ADC ($8,600) and ShiauC - SUP ($6,400)
Bot lane synergy don't mind if I do. I expect Cryin to have his hands full with Knight not that that has stopped him before, but I love then bot lane from eStar here. I'm looking to capitalize on the lack of synergy in TES bot lane with this selection. The prices are up there, but if you can find a way, I like it as TES has averaged nearly 20 deaths in their losses. Meaning the sneaky upside is here for this squad to match BLG and FPX at far reduced ownership.
Wei - JNG ($7,600)
Another reason I like eStar in this matchup is the way Wei can sync up with the rest of his team. He is tied with Cryin for the team lead in KP at 76.7%, and this shows out that cooperation. Karsa has improved recently, and I think he stands to benefit the most in the long term from the addition of Jackey. It will allow him more paths to gank and another winning lane to play around. Unfortunately, those things will come in time, but not in time for Thursday.
Summary
- Give all the BLG tonight in all formats. A full four-man stack is preferrable on both sites if possible, but they are priced up.
- FPX is my second favorite team on the slate. Fitting them with BLG won't be easy, but is adviseable where you can.
- The eStar-TES game is the premeire game on the slate. TES prices make them an attractive GPP target, but I think eStar wins and is a great GPP target.
- The value in the LCK comes from the Griffin-HLE game where both teams are in play. I lean to the Griffin side.
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Looking Forward
With LPL and LCK overnight slates continuing through mid-April, we here at RotoBaller have got you covered. The League of Legends DFS action never stops. The LEC and LCS playoffs are in full swing, and EU Masters will be back soon.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as we'll be publishing daily ESports DFS articles, analysis and lineup picks for League Of Legends, Counter Strike, Rocket League and eNASCAR. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
More ESports DFS Analysis
RotoBaller Testimonials
Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!Did you read a RotoBaller article and win too? Send us your screenshots on Twitter @RotoBaller and we'll add it to our winners Hall Of Fame!
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
