RADIO
Another day of LPL and LCK action is upon us and I’m back with more LOL analysis for your daily fantasy vices.
"Positive vibes only" or, in my case, "No hair don't care," has this become an inspirational Instagram account. I mean I have to have something to say after yesterdays slate. I managed to find a way to get a couple lineups into the green zone even though there was nary a winner to be found in them.
Hopefully, you found some good luck too, and if not, we're here to reverse the curse. Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, June 19th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Sandbox Gaming vs. Damwon Gaming (-315)
There was some very careless league of legends played yesterday, some of those teams look like randoms thrown together at the last minute—what a perfect way to prep us for some DWG. They often draw comparisons to Invictus Gaming both in good and bad ways. They can certainly be every bit as annoying from a dfs aspect. SBG is back on the slate after a day off, and their new coach will be self-quarantined for two weeks, but has arrived in Korea. He will be working remotely with the team so that we can expect some of the patented Yamato flair. What you're going to remember from that series is that AFS has been the only LCK favorite to win a series this split so far, and it was a sweep. You might not remember that both games were very close for 20 minutes or so until Kiin and Mystic took over. AFS has an upside to match nearly any team in the LCK, and talent-wise so does DWG.
They tend to play a looser style that revolves around their talented solo laners Nuguri and Showmaker. This style leads them to be more of a coin flip style team that, like Invictus, looks amazing when they win and awful when they lose. SBG and DWG both promoted to the LCK at the end of 2018 and began play in the 2019 season. Since entering the league, these promotion pals have played some very tight series with DWG coming out ahead, narrowly winning four of seven sets with a 10-9 game score. SBG struggled this spring, finding their way into the promotion tournament, while DWG managed to get into the top four and qualify for the Mid Season Cup, albeit against very different levels of competition, both teams found success in their offseason tournaments.
We will have our starters before lock if you're on team no sleep with me, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Nuclear make an appearance back in the starting lineup for the first time since week six in the spring. He was pivotal in their playoffs and worlds run last season, particularly on Kaisa, which has come back to prominence. I think he may be a better fit for this meta than Ghost, but we will have to wait and see as Ghost did start all the games at MSC.
Going off their performances and stats from spring DWG should become the second LCK favorite to take home a W. Still, given the chaotic state of professional League of Legends, these two teams history of close games, and DWG coin flippy tendencies I will likely take a dog or pass approach here. This summer has seen the LPL slow down a bit, but tonight, I have both LPL significantly higher than the LCK games, and I don't want to spend a lot of precious cap space on lower upside LCK plays. I think DWG get the win in a likely 2-1, but for DFS purposes I'll like try some small stacks on the SBG side
Top SBG Plays:
- OnFleek - JNG
- Route - ADC
- SBG Team
7:00 AM: Dragon X (-130) vs. Gen G (-115)
This spot reminds me of how I like to play LEC slates and LCS slates, go the opposite of whatever happened the day before and let everyone else overreact. While we gave T1 their due on Wednesday, the pricing on DRX was straight up disrespectful. I think we'll see this line move more to the side of DRX as the day goes on. People just saw DRX beat a team they consider better than Gen G, and so I think we're going to get a pick-em game that as public opinion (read ownership) more heavily on one side. These teams split in the spring, and it is going to be nitpicking to separate these two top tier teams. Sorry for the lack of analysis here, everyone, but sometimes you have to trust your gut. If your gut says DRX looked great versus T1, then I can't blame you. My gut says that I can get another top-end team in a coin flip matchup with lower ownership and lower prices so that I can fit more LPL studs. Small stacks and team slots for me again.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Bdd - MID
- Clid - JNG
- Ruler - ADC
- GenG Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: eStar (-165) vs. LNG
News flash, everyone, LNG is not good. They are doing what they did in the spring split with a little different setup, taking advantage of others' mistakes, and still having the longest game time in the LPL. They have been able to secure a lot of rift heralds swapping to the top side of the map. They have a much better rift percentage than does eStar, but eStar leads the league in the first turret. They haven't been buying into the rift herald hype instead of focusing on trading plates elsewhere on the map. Estar will match or exceed any early pressure that LNG tries to come with their rift herald plays. Wei is going to be able to track and match Xx, so that when we get our standard LPL party in the bot lane, we will see Wink have the backup he needs.
To continue with my gut feelings today, I think we see eStar come out hot after their last loss to BLG, which was bad as bad can be. This series looks like game two of that set to me with an aggressive eStar side able to pressure out LNG and not give them the space to set up for the long haul. This early game from the LPL will be another top target for me on Friday. I'm going to go heavy on eStar and let the chips fall where they may.
Top ES Plays:
- Wei - JNG
- Wink - ADC
- FenFen - MID
- Xiaobai - TOP
7:00 AM: FPX (-260) vs. World Elite
I’m looking forward to this one. As you know, I like to refer to the side of World Elite as "Great Value" FPX. Their playstyles are similar, they both have roaming mid laners with some weird champion pools, and they both rely on the power friendship to get things done. The mid lane picks in this one could get very spicy, but all I want to see is no Corki or Azir. Doinb on Ryse would be a treat, and even though there is zero priority around the globe on that champ right now, WE might give over the respect ban. The Doinb version of Fun Plus is undefeated against this WE side in league play, and I'm going to look for that to continue here on Friday AM. But as we have seen in recent weeks, anything can happen daily. WE rely on Teacherma getting away from mid lane to accelerate Juimeng, but Juimeng has played a ton of Aphelios this year. After losing to LNG with Light getting Aphelios we saw FPX come out and draft him for Lwx both games versus BLG.
Fpx is a bit more flexible than WE, and that's why they are the name brand. I like them to go 2-1 versus the knock offs. This game will be a primary target, and I will also be playing a few WE hedge stacks.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Lwx - ADC
- Tian - Jungle
- Crisp - SUP
Top WE Plays:
- Juimeng - ADC
- Missing - SUP
- Beishang - JNG
- Teacherma - MID
Summary
- I think we see both of the LCK games come up a bit in ownership after the past few days of the leagues being closer in scores. I will stay heavier on the LPL side as I think any LPL winner likely goes over 20 kills in a win.
- WE are very cheap on FD, and I like them for one-offs on that site. Morgan, Missing, or even Beishang make good choices. Their team slot less so. Nuguri would also be a good choice as he is the top laner most likely to carry a game or series.
- Be prepared for more tilting mornings until these teams settle into the new meta and get some more games under their belts. Maybe a little less cash game exposure, because we saw the cash game consensus, KT get destroyed yesterday by a newly promoted squad.
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