RADIO
What's up, Esports fans? It's Thunder Dan here today sitting in for your favorite LOL analyst Mr. Malmanger who finally needed a day off (he will have to restart the #nodaysoff countdown over again tomorrow). But don't worry - I always pick Jason's brain before putting together my thoughts on any LOL slate and I feel pretty confident in my process after learning much from the Jedi master himself over the last four months.
Yesterday we saw LGD let us down in a big way as they were swept by Suning and the other "live dog" that Jason liked in Damwon also swept a tough match against LCK champ T1. IG dropped a game before eventually finishing off the lowly DMO squad and GenG did pretty much exactly what we thought they would by smashing Sandbox and scoring well in an easy sweep.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, July 2nd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Afreeca Freecs (-345) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
AF comes into this one with a 2-2 record this split, including a solid win vs Team Dynamics but has suffered back to back losses to T1 and DRX. Hanwha, on the other hand, comes in on a four-game losing streak and has failed to live up to any of the "Viper hype" this season. Afreeca has the advantage in every stat category that matters and they are a good bet to win this 2-0. Hanwha has been awful in the top-lane and mid-lane. I like Kiin and Fly a lot in particular for Afreeca here as a result. Mystic leads the team with a 76.7% kill participation but also yields a tough bot lane match against Hanwa's best player Viper. The Freecs are the third-highest priced team on Fanduel so fitting them shouldn't be a problem at all, and with how well Hanwa's opponents have scored this split it's probably going to be a priority for me. I've chased Hanwa as an underdog a few times already this split, but I'll wait for them to show me that they can compete before I do again.
Top AF Plays
- Fly - MID
- Kiin - JNG
- Mystic - ADC
- AF Team Slot
7:00 AM: Dragon X (-550) vs. Team Dynamics
DRX comes into this as the top team in the LCK at 4-0 with victories over T1, GEN. G, Sandbox, and Afreeca. Team Dynamics has gotten off to a great start at well and sits at 3-1 despite it being their first split in the LCK after being promoted. Team Dynamics hasn't really faced a true test yet, however, with three wins against bottom-half teams (Sandbox, APK, KT). DRX had the advantage in gold per minute, damage per minute, and barons per game. Dynamics do have advantages in first blood percentage, first turret percentage, dragons per game, and heralds per game. I definitely think some of Dynamics' team stats are a little inflated due to lower-level competition that they've played so far this split. I do think that Dynamics have some potential as the split goes on, but I think DRX takes this one 2-1 and stays undefeated. I do not mind a shot on Dynamics in GPPs as we've seen plenty of upsets already. If you do choose to go that way my favorites are Rich and Kuzan.
Top DRX Plays
- Chovy - MID
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
- Pyosik - JNG
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Oh My God (-170)
This is a battle of two bottom feeders in the LPL. OMG comes into this one 2-4, having won their last two games against bad teams DMO and LNG. RW is still looking for their first win on the year and has looked pretty awful for the most part of this split so far. RW has the advantage in first blood percentage and damage per minute but that's about it. OMG has the advantage in every other category. RW has had trouble getting too far behind early which is evident in their average gold differential at 15 minutes (-2211). But I don't think that will be a problem here since OMG is known as one of the slowest and most boring teams in the LPL. I don't trust them to snowball these games at all. OMG has owned RG in the past, but both teams have some different players in the lineup this split. I like RW to get their first win of the season here off of the back of ZWuji and the bot lane, and I'll even go as far as to say they sweep 2-0.
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG
- Zwuji - ADC
- Ley - SUP
- RW Team Slot
7:00 AM: World Elite vs. Jindong Gaming (-170)
I'll start off by saying I expect this to be the bloodiest series of the night. JDG comes in at 3-2 while WE has been one of the biggest surprises in the LPL at 5-2. WE has looked impressive this split outside of a loss to Suning, but still play a very dangerous style of lol that makes them very vulnerable. JD Gaming has losses to TES and RNG, two top tier teams, and has dominated the lower competition. JDG has the advantages in Gold per minute, Damage per minute, Gold differential at 15 minutes, Heralds per game, and Barons per game. WE has better First blood %, First turret %, and Dragons per game. I think picking either side of this game is viable and I think the winner of this game will be the slate's highest-scoring team. I lean towards JDG to get the job done 2-0 through their world-class top-laner Zoom, as well as their elite jungler, Kanavi. I also give the advantage to Yagao over Teacherma in the mid lane. JDG is my favorite stack on the slate, it's that simple. If stacking WE, my favorites ars Jiumeng and Beishang even in the tough matchup.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JDG
- Loken - ADC
- Zoom - TOP
- Yagao - MID
Summary
- I like my bigger stacks to come from that JDG/WE series. Pairing JDG with a cheap stack like RW certainly offers a ton of contrarian upside in my opinion.
- Of all the favorites I think Afreeca will be the lowest owned. I certainly don't mind my smaller stack coming from them and a 3-4 man will also likely be fairly low-owned.
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