RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Yesterday saw more unexpected results in group B, but I got my JDG win over DWG just like I thought.
Unfortunately, I also got a stunning upset by PSG to rob us all of another great tiebreaker match. With group C on the docket today, I'm sure we will end up with more head-scratching results by the end of today.
I already dreading it, but here is my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, October 10th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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Gen G (LCK) -200 vs LGD; -345 vs. TSM; -195 vs. FNC
Gen G will be on red versus LGD and TSM and the blue side in their rematch with FNC. That could open some things up for LGD, but they don't have any noticeable side splits like some teams. Gen G does as they are 26-4 on the blue side in the summer split, and 15-12 on the red. Even with LGD stepping up their early game in the play-in stage, Gen G should still have the early lead in this one. GG holds the advantage in first blood, first turret, rift herald, and gold differential at 15 minutes both during the regular split and in the small three-game sample size of the group stage.
Now, I know that we have seen a roughly equivalent LCS team (TL) beat a better EU team (G2) and a better LPL team (SNG), and so why can't TSM create some spoilers in this tight group. I think that they can, but I don't think that spot is versus Gen G. They too will have trouble with Gen G's early game, and being down early is something TSM has been accustomed to in the group stage, averaging -1367 gold at fifteen minutes. One of their stronger suits in the LCS was their laning phase, as even in weaker matchups, they held their own. They were the best CSM team in the LCS playoffs, but currently, sit 14th out of 16 teams in the group stage. Stronger teams do not allow TSM to draft Zilean, for example, without punishing them severely in lane. So no, not in this matchup, TSM sorry we'll save that one for later.
The final match of the day will be the revenge game for Gen G as they face Fnatic. The first matchup left us all scratching our heads as we saw Life load into the game without his flash. He had an unsealed spellbook, and you could see what he was thinking, but at the same time, what was he thinking. Fnatic quickly punished the bot lane, and although Gen G fought on bravely in a game that appeared lost in 5 minutes, they eventually succumbed to the early lead that FNC built for themselves. This will not happen again, and I think we see Gen G go 3-0 on the day.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- Bdd- MID
- Rascal - TOP
Fnatic (LEC) -210 vs. TSM; -110 vs. LGD; +140 vs. Gen G
Here's where we're going to find our value on this slate, with a team I hate like none other than LEC's second-place qualifier Fnatic. I think they will finish up the day as the second-place team in this group, and we should see them go 2-1 on the day. I know I promised a TSM spoiler play somewhere along the line, but now that I'm into it, I sure don't know about that anymore.
TSM couldn't get it done versus FNC the first time around when I was heavily invested in them, and I fully expect them to lose now that they will swap to the red side. The heavy jungle meta has helped FNC as it has stripped attention away from their deficiencies (NEMESIS) and moved it to their strengths in Selfmade. I think he wins this jungle matchup versus Spica handily, and FNC can use that to accelerate into the mid-game and pull away from TSM before their (likely) scaling comp can come online.
The LGD match will be more in question for me as Peanut has pushed his early game to the max in the play-ins and carried over a fair bit of that to groups. I think we'll see FNC attack the champs he has had success with at World's Graves, Nidalee, and Kindred, and they can either drop a couple of bans then use the blue side advantage to pick the other away. Or they could go a little off the board with a Gragas pick coupled with the bans to try to stymie Peanut. As much as I hate it I think FNC picks up the win here.
The Gen G match will likely determine the group's fate, and I don't think FNC will get the same lucky break they got the first time around to upended Gen G a second time. I also think that no amount of Gallio, Twisted Fate, or even Sett mid can make up for what Bdd will do to Nemesis.
Top FNC Plays:
- Selfmade - JNG
- Rekkels - ADC
- Bwipo - TOP
- Nemesis - MID
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LGD (LPL) +145 vs. Gen G; -125 vs. FNC; -240 vs. TSM
Will the LPL's fourth seed become the only LPL team to not qualify into quarterfinals, sadly it looks that way. In their opener versus Gen G, they will need to get up early and find a way to get Kramer ahead while punishing Ruler. Clid is 9-1 in game-score versus Peanut in his career with all of those, save one coming in 2019 as a member of T1 versus this Gen G squad. Ouch, that's a no from me, dog.
The rematch with FNC is a much more winnable prospect for LGD. They drafted a scaling composition in the first match with FNC, and while FNC had some nice plays early, LangX's Ornn got where he was going and became a problem that FNC couldn't deal with. Speaking before about the jungle matchup in this one, Selfmade has some tricks up his sleeve, but in FNC win over Gen G, he finally got his first win on Graves of the year. So if FNC shows a similar type of hubris they did in the first round-robin and disrespects the LPL squad, we can see LGD take this one.
After a couple of high-intensity matches, LGD finally gets to face FREESM. It will be nice to pick up this easy win. I had some modest hopes for TSM in this group, but after a miserable 0-3 showing in the opening week, I don't know if they will be able to pick up a win. I like LGD here to grab the victory.
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Xiye - MID
- LangX - TOP
TSM (LCS) +150 vs. FNC; +245 vs. Gen G; +175 vs. LGD
I liked TSM quite a bit to pick up a win over FNC in their opener at World's, and they let me down bigly. Now that I have completely given up on them, I am ready for them to do what TL did to me in group A. Payout for everyone brave enough to fire that bullet. FNC has a better win rate on the red side of summoners rift than they do on blue, and so that swap could boost TSM. TSM will likely come out more aggressively after being embarrassed in week one, and as I mentioned earlier, TL set that precedent.
Side selection also favors the North American squad in the rematch with Gen G, but I feel like the talent gap may just be too much in that one for them to overcome. Again we have seen some surprises (ahem PSG), and so we can't really rule anything out. Gen G's bot and jungle gaps are likely too much to overcome with anything but narratives about Gen G looking ahead to the matchup with FNC to decided the group or TSM throwing caution to the wind.
More narrative for the TSM side, if LGD is already eliminated by the third match they could have a lackluster showing while a desperate TSM fights for regional and personal pride in an attempt to not go winless. back to reality, I think TSM will be outgunned in the early game and never make it to that mythical point in the future where they have scaled. LGD might not be as bloodthirsty as their LPL brethren it is worth noting that they were the slowest LPL team in the regular season, but turned it up in the playoffs and play-ins.
Top TSM Plays:
- Broken Blade - TOP
- Spica - JNG
- TSM Team
Summary
- TLDR - officially, the picks are Gen G 3-0, FNC 2-1, LGD 1-2, and TSM 0-3. If we have learned anything from the first two groups, we always need to be on guard for the underdogs.
- This group seemed the most wide-open from the get-go, and after an opening week that saw the top three teams trade wins over one another and TSM lag behind, not much has changed. I picked FNC to 2-1, and we have seen them have some very successful miracle runs in the second week of groups in the past. However, that was with other coaches, not Mithy, their current HC. They are also a .500 team within a region that has already sent two of their four reps home and seen their first seed fall to the LPL's third seed. So my FNC recco maybe wishful thinking based on past results, a way to force big time Gen G captains into my lineups, or even a poor attempt at a reverse curse of a team I hate.
- I have called Gen G unlucky several times lately, and that maybe, but they also might just be not a smart team. Who's to say an early stumble versus LGD doesn't put them into a bit of a spiral, especially with their last game having been the throw versus FNC. They may be feeling a bit snake-bitten themselves.
- Maybe I'm trying to sell LGD short on purpose to have lowered expectations of them if they don't get out. Perhaps I'm letting TSM failing me in the opener color my view of them now? This group is the closest of them all, and perhaps the most likely outcome is the one we saw in the first week. All of the top teams trade wins against one another while poor TSM brings up the rear.
- A lot of bs and narratives out of me today, and I do apologize. This group and a couple of curveballs from the first two groups have me jumping at shadows. We'll end on this note and classic tout disclaimer; its an excellent GPP slate.
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