RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! I feel like many of us would have liked to have redraw of the brackets after the drawing last Sunday. The current configuration of three LPL squads (and Fnatic) on one side and three LCK squads (plus G2) on the other takes a lot of the excitement out of the international competition when we get faced with several domestic rematches.
There's always next year, and maybe by then, we will see an overhaul of the group stage that will lessen the number of meaningless games. I don't know what the answer is, but hopefully, Riot has their ear to the ground and remains open to changes that would be the best for us.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 6:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 15th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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DWG (LCK) -650 vs. DRX (LCK) +390
And right off the bat, you can see what I'm talking about exactly, as we open with a rematch of the LCK summer final. The first clash between DRX and DWG in a best of five was highly anticlimatic, with DWG smashing them in a quick 3-0 sweep. The teams are even in game-score at 9-9 even though DRX has the lead in series wins 4-2 on the year. DWG took control of the matchup in summer after losing the opening series 1-2 by sweeping DRX in their next two meetings, the last being the summer finale. Will we see any other outcome this time around? Let's dig in and find out.
DWG only lost five games total, two to DRX, and three to Gen G in the summer split. Their early game was unmatched, earning a 77.1 EGR from Oracle's Elixir <LINK>. They led DRX in first blood, first turret, rift herald, first three turrets, and gold differential at 15 minutes. Even in the monster objectives, DWG held significant leads in both baron and dragon percentage. DWG have slowed a bit in the group stage, but still lead DRX in first turret, rift herald, and first three turrets. DRX has a better gold differential at 15, despite having two losses to DWG's one, and sits even in first blood. The stats still favor DWG even with their slower pace at Worlds.
The teams' real difference comes in their draft phases and their ability to recognize and play to their win conditions. Even win they "win" draft, they find ways to play themselves out of games, the second game with TES was a good example. DRX didn't need to fight in the mid-game; they only needed to use their lead in gold and map pressure to play passively until Ornn became unkillable. Instead, they faced up with TES for some mid lane fights and found themselves outclassed. In the finals with DWG, the draft phase was a big problem, so much so that even with Chovy getting ahead, they weren't able to convert that lead into anything meaningful.
This match is a clear win for DWG, and a likely repeat of the LCK summer finals with DWG looking to sweep. Throughout summer, DRX has averaged 18.5 deaths in their losses, and in their losses to DWG, they averaged 20.5. DWG will be where I grab my big stacks as I'll be looking to load up on these high kill total games. On a positive note for DRX, they have beaten this squad in summer, they didn't lose any series to them in the spring, DWG did have some questionable early games versus PSG, and they will be BY FAR the lowest owned of any of the four teams. I might take a few shots on some small DRX stacks to mix it up a bit in GPPs.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- Ghost - ADC
- Nuguri - TOP
- Showmaker - MID
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SNG (LPL) +120 vs. JDG (LPL)-170
While the bracket's LPL side doesn't present us with a playoff rematch, we have seen these two teams head to head twice this season. JDG won both sets with a game score of 4-1, but they were much closer than that would indicate. The 2-0 for JDG in the summer split was intense, and SNG held the early lead in both games. The spring match featured 705 while Zoom was still in quarantine, and Haungfeng had just joined a few weeks earlier.
Looking at the summer split stats, the teams are very close early game with JDG leading in first blood and gold differential at 15. SNG answers with leads in rift herald, first turret, and first three turret percentages. SNG also holds the edge in vision numbers, while JDG narrowly holds the better dragon (+6%) and baron numbers (+2%). In groups, SNG had better numbers in ever respect minus rift heralds, but they had a more manageable group draw without having to face DWG twice. I will give a slight edge to SNG on the statistics as I think their ability to prioritize the first turret can get them started snowballing faster than JDG's more lane oriented style.
Top to bottom talent-wise, the teams are very even as well. Zoom is more consistent than Bin, and although Bin has had some highlight-reel plays at worlds, I think the top lane matchup goes to JDG. The current farm heavy jungle meta is incredible for SofM as he is allowed to get ahead of the enemy jungler through efficient pathing and timing of opponents camps. Then when it comes time for SNG to contest a baron or a third drake, he pops out of the jungle ahead in farm and gold, looking to fight. We saw this with his Graves versus G2 in the tiebreaker, where he wouldn't allow Jankos Lilia to farm up the way she needed to. Kanavi is a different beast, though, but I think the current meta makes the jungle match up nearly a tie.
Angel has been maybe the surprise of the tournament thus far as he has shown up in a big way, and I think that's a testament to the strength of the LPL. Yagao is usually a bit of an afterthought on this JDG roster, much like Angel is for SNG, but anyone who followed the LPL this season knows how deadly he can be on Zoey and many other meta champs. The bot duo will make or break the matchup, and that's where I give the edge over to JDG in the most significant way. Loken and LvMao are a step above Haunfeng and Swordart, and even with Swordart's experience balancing Huanfeng's youthful exuberance in the G2 matches, the young ADC got caught out multiple times.
JDG was my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and they were one weird scaling comp away from forcing DWG to a tiebreaker for the first seed in group B. So we have seen how dangerous they can be, and I think if the groups were reversed it would be JDG with the first seed not SNG. SNG did well to take two of three (and VERY nearly all three) from G2, but I firmly believe that JDG is a step up in competition and that JDG should win this match. It will be very close, and I don't mind taking some SNG plays as they are cheap enough to allow you to fit nearly any lineup configuration you want. SNG could surprise here with an upset or end up pushing JDG to five games, and in that case, might be worth equal amounts in our lineups as they will allow us more expensive DWG captain options.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG
- Loken - ADC
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Angel - MID
- Swordart - SUP
- SNG Team
Summary
- TLDR - DWG 3-0 and JDG 3-2, I lowkey like some SNG lineups, but remember it's a two-game slate, and nothing is going to be sneaky. SNG will be lower owned than JDG, but only slightly.
- DWG will be my primary stacking piece due to the upside DRX gives with their higher deaths per loss. DWG has a low number of deaths per loss, but there is a minimal sample size there, and we did see JDG drop 25 kills in their win over DWG. If I run out any DRX stacks, I will probably go for the gold and run them as my big stack.
- The bracket's LPL side is very even for kills and deaths, with both sides being within a half kill of each other in a projected win. Suning has maybe a touch more upside given JDG's scrappy nature.
- We're winding down now for DFS slates as the tension of World's winds up. A few more of these two-day slates, and we'll be all done for the year. Thanks again for following me throughout the quarantine craziness, and into the fall now, even as traditional sports have made their comeback.
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