RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column!
Day two is in the books; we had some spicy matchups and a few upsets. Today will be our next to last of these big beautiful six-game slates; after Tuesday, the groups will break off, and each will finish their second part of their round robins. That means we will see three sets of two-game slates a day for the following four days to determine first and second groups. Then it's on to the bracket stage, and for us, two-day two-game slates. Suboptimal for DFS, to be sure, but I can't wait to see these teams mix it up in best of fives.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Machi Esports (PCS) vs. G2 (LPL) -450
Machi "surprised" TL with a nice win on Sunday AM as TL did their best to stall out the game, which hurt Machi from a DFS perspective. Machi brought the heat in the early game to push TL off early objectives. TL may have been a bit full of themselves as they allowed Ornn through in the draft, planning to finish the game quickly before the Ornn and Ezreal could come online. They put themselves on a timer as I like to say, needing to win in 24-27 minutes, but they couldn't get up early. G2 went deep with SNG, and it reminiscent of some of their back and forth finals with FNC in the LEC with G2 coming out on top. Both teams pushed to the enemy nexus but couldn't finish and stayed a bit too long, losing members.
Looking at both teams' stats, I think we might be in for another surprise from Machi Esports on Monday morning. Machi is an active early game and a good team fighting team; they will give G2 some problems. Machi have the edge in first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and gold differential at 15. G2 has a higher rift herald percentage and better drake numbers, but Machi answer with a higher baron percentage and better vision numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game play out much like the SNG/G2 match from yesterday. With Machi using their early advantage to get up on G2 early, G2 hanging tough with a reliable map and objective plays.
Going down the rosters, I think we see Wunder as a bit of a win condition for G2 in this one. He might not have the flashy kill participation numbers of his enemy laner, but his CSM and GPM are well above those of PK. He doesn't just play tanks, and is very versatile with double the number of unique champions play this year to PK. The mid jungle duo is where I think the surprise is coming for G2 esports; this is a spot where they expect to win every game. I believe that Mission and Gemini can match the G2 duo, putting pressure on the bot lane to perform. Perkz and MikyX answered the call on Sunday with some clutch plays down the stretch to secure the win for G2.
I think that Machi is live in this game, but ultimately G2 likely win. G2 does have a level of flexibility in their champion pool that Machi can't match. G2's solid macro game allows them to answer plays cross-map so that when they are behind, they tend to lose less. This strength will be their avenue to victory, and by not allowing Machi to snowball, they can stay close until the bot lane carries them to the win. We saw a game stack from G2/SNG do very well on Sunday, which could play again today. I'll be splitting my exposure here, as this should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. Given their extreme prices, it could be a pay up to be contrarian spot with good underdog spots being hard to come by on this slate.
Top G2 Plays:
- Perkz - ADC
- Mikyx - SUP
- Wunder - Top
- Caps - MID
Top MC Plays:
- Gemini - JNG
- Mission - MID
- PK - Top
- Bruce - ADC
4:50 AM: Team Liquid (LCs) vs. Suning (LPL) -225
TL and SNG were both disappointing in their opening games in the group stage. TL was in a tantalizing spot versus the PCS champions with some juicy death per loss numbers in their favor, but they were unable to snowball and, in the end, were outscaled. SNG, who I always describe as unspectacular, but stable, stumbled a bit on their first trip to the stage. They allowed G2 to steal away some clutch objectives and ultimately overcommitted for the enemy nexus, which led to them falling in a game I would have picked them to win.
Both teams have an opportunity to pick themselves up, and one of them may find their tournament chances very dim after this match. I think I can sum this one up in a single tweet worth of info. League GAAAAAAP, that's it, that's the tweet, but my sweet, sweet LPL has struggled in the group stage so far, so we'll look at this a bit closer. TL should have the advantage in the early game with a better first blood, first turret, rift herald, and gold differential at 15. Looking at the monster objectives, SNG has a slight lead in drakes, but TL has the edge in barons. SNG is one of the best vision teams in the LPL thanks to SofM and Swordart, and CoreJJ may struggle to keep up as he is the main source of information from the side of TL.
TL failed to get far enough ahead in the match versus Machi, and that's likely what we see here again. TL has the early advantage, but SNG likely wins if they are unable to snowball from that lead. Neither of these teams will be in my main targets on Monday morning, as this should be one of our slower matchups. Both are cheap, but sitting at 8th and 10th in projected kills, I'm going to have to go dog or pass. I think SNG win, but if you play anything here, it should be a small piece of TL in gpps. It will be a fade for me.
Top Play: FADE
5:40 AM: Damwon Gaming (LCK) -750 vs. PSG Talon (PCS)
Unlike the last game, I think we all know this match won't be close. DWG are just too much early in the game. They didn't come through on the fantasy side versus a timid Rogue squad, and I think we see more of the same today. DWG was still dominant, but it only manifested itself in gold and map pressure over RGE. I Have DWG as the 11th highest kill projection, and unlike yesterday I think we have better spots. DWG can always drop 25 kills, and it's a scary fade for sure, but I think that's where I'm going again. JDG put up 17 on PSG, Rogue shut them out, and we all know that DWG should dominate again, but for my money, I'll look elsewhere.
Top Play: FADE
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6:30 AM: JDG (LPL) -245 vs. Rogue (LEC)
This match is a quiet banger for me, and I have more hope for Rogue in this one than you might believe. I've got them in the sixth spot for kills on this slate, which is decent, but they will be one of the lower owned teams as well.
Their early game could be a problem for JDG, and if they can build enough of a lead that JDG has to fight from desperation, we could see them score. RGE has the edge in first blood, first turret, and rift herald. I think JDG will be able to stay even in gold with superior laners and jungle diff. Rogue had great baron numbers in both the summer split and playoffs; JDG will answer with superior vision numbers and that lane advantage I spoke of earlier.
Rogue's chances are slim, but their upside is vast because of how any possible Rogue victory would play out. JDG will likely follow what DWG did yesterday in a win pushing in as Rogue disengage and try to stall. I think that JDG wins here with their overall talent gap, but it will be dog or pass again for me as far as plays go. The ancient tout maxim applies though; it's a deep gpp play only.
Top RGE Plays:
- Inspired - JNG
- Larssen - MID
- Hans Sama - ADC
- RGE Team
7:20 AM: Flyquest (LCS) -125 vs. Unicorns of Love (LCL) -110
I'm focusing in on just three matches for my main targets on Monday morning, and this is one of them. Flyquest is third in my projections for kills, and Unicorns of Love are fifth; that's why I'm looking at this one so closely. Fly showed a willingness to fight to the end versus TES on the opening day of groups, and that adds a bit more fuel to my fire for this game.
Unicorns should have the edge early, and that's not good for FLY. Frist blood, first turret, rift herald, and gold differential at 15 go over to Unicorns. Unicorns also have the edge in monster objectives with better baron and drake numbers. FLY answer with better stronger laners, better CSM, and a slight edge in vision numbers. Most of the team stats point to UOL, but their weaker competition admittedly padded them.
UOL was a trendy upset pick against DRX on Monday, and I think they might be again here, but for better reasons. I was solidly in the DRX camp on Saturday, but I am more split today. FLY are better laners than UOL generating more gold and exp, but the question will be whether they can translate that into team fight wins. I don't think it will be enough, and like UOL to take this one.
Fly have great upside too if they thwart UOL's early attempts, they will then have them crashing into team fights from behind looking to outplay. I told everyone on Saturday that the jump from play-ins to laning against Chovy is a quantum leap. POE is a few tiers below Chovy, but still a gap from the play-in mid laners. I'll be attacking this one on both sides.
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Gadget - ADC
- SaNTaS - SUP
- Nomanz - MID
Top FLY Plays:
- PowerOfEvil - MID
- Santorin - JNG
- Solo - TOP
- WildTurtle - ADC
8:10 AM: Top Esports (LPL) -220 vs. DRX (LCK)
I understand what the schedule makers were doing the first two days, and that was putting what they felt the most interesting matchup to western fans in the final "Game of the Day" spot. Even though it turned out anticlimactic, day one should have had JDG/DWG, and day two should have been G2/SNG. They nailed this one, Chovy, Knight, Deft, Jackeylove, and I'm getting goosebumps already. Both squads performed as expected on opening day, cruising to easy wins. The competition and stakes are raised for this one.
With the first blood rate between the teams, a virtual tie early game advantage will likely come down to TES edge in rift herald and first turret rate versus DRX laning prowess. TES has a slight edge in dragons, but DRX and answer with a baron advantage and better vision numbers. Statistically, the teams are close, but I'll give TES the edge as they had to accumulate those stats versus stiffer competition in the LPL.
Pyosik went wild on Saturday with AHaHaCiK, unable to check him, but going up against the "Radar Bro" Karsa will be a different story. Carry junglers have been the name of the game thus far, and if Pyosik can get ahead, he could be a problem again. 369's introduction to western fans on day one was a swift one as he solo killed the aptly named top laner of Flyquest in a counter matchup of Camille versus Volibear. That's not how that matchup should play out at all, and 369 should have the edge over Doran in this game as well.
Chovy is a bona fide stud, but I'll take Knight to win this matchup for my money. He is more impactful for his team on a more consistent basis. Chovy has better CSM, but no one in the tournament has a higher share of their teams kills than Knight. Pretty impressive for someone on a team with Jackeylove, speaking of which he has the highest DPM and percentage of his team's damage of any ADC in the tournament. Deft has struggled with injuries this last split and hasn't been able to keep with his past performances. Keria has, at times, been the MVP of this squad, while Yuyanjia has grown this rapport with JKL. Overall the bottom lane is a win for TES.
I like TES to win this matchup and are among my top targets for the slate sitting in the second spot for kill projections. DRX is live as dogs, and their pricing is downright disrespectful. I think that their ownership will also be disrespectful, and I will have some small shares. They fit very well with some of the other teams I've outlined as favs.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- 369 - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - G2, SNG, DWG, JDG, UOL, and TES win today. Several matches could go either way, and a few could be snoozers with neither side giving us the fantasy scores we're looking for.
- The pricing on DRX, the upside and leverage for Rogue, Machi's strong team fighting, and Flyquest's ability to hang tough make me like them for some contrary plays.
- Fading DWG worked out pretty well yesterday, and I'm going back to the well with that one. I can see using their extreme safety in lineups with some big dogs, and of course, if you can fit them in cash games.
- Tonight is the second to last big slate for us, so cash in those tickets, everyone, and let's get that 20$ Cup Quest. Or that daily dollar, whatever your stakes, thanks for reading, and I'll see you back here again tomorrow.
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