RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! SADLIONS.jpeg MAD become the first major region team to lose a best of five to a play-in region team, and we will see out first play-in region representative on the main stage since 2017. It was a TCL team then too that advanced to the main stage. Will we see SuperMassive continue their run, or will the Unicorns of Love show them the exit?
Also, a huge apology for calling for the MAD Lions win there; I knew they would be at a draft disadvantage but didn't anticipate it being so massive. We'll do better today on the last day of the best of fives as we determine our final two members of the Worlds' main stage. As disappointed as I am in myself for not staying off MAD like I had been all tournament, I might be even more excited for the opening ceremonies on Saturday and the vast 6-game dfs slates that will follow for four days after. The Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way; stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in knockout slates on DraftKings that lock at 2:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 30th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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2:00 AM: Legacy (OPL) vs. LGD (LPL) -850
Am I worried? Never! I was a staunch supporter of LGD in that best of five calling for the 3-1, and they did me one better wiping R7 off the map and finding a much-needed bit of rhythm. I knew if you gave them five chances to blow big early leads, the odds were on their side to play correctly 66% of the time. This team looks so much better coming downhill. It's crazy, and they need to keep Mark on engage champs like the Rakan or Leona for the rest of the tournament. Legacy got themselves into position to auto qualify but got dunked on by TL in the qualification tiebreaker game. Now, these two have the early game on Thursday morning to qualify for the main stage.
I know it's a minimal sample size of five games for each team, but looking at the teams' stats in play in stage gives us a look at the trends these teams are on and might be more impactful than their season-long stats. What's worrying for LGC is that LGD has been one of the best early game teams in the tournament. LGD has a 100% first blood rate, 67% first turret rate, both of which are first in play-ins. LGD's average gold differential of 2047 is second behind TL who have already advanced, and their 67% rift herald take is also second this time behind their opponent LGC. Legacy has the lowest CSM of any team in the tournament, and their lane percentage confirms it as they only control 48.2% of their in lane farm. If the teams sit and farm, LGD will pressure LGC out of lanes. Legacy is not going to win the early game, no matter how proactive they are. They will need to be hyperactive to establish dominance early. If they play slowly and allow LGD to farm up, they may find themselves too far behind for even LGD to throw the game away. Speaking of throws, LGD is the top-ranked team in early game rating at the tournament and the worst-ranked unit in mid-late game rate courtesy of our friends at Oracle's Elixir.
Positionally up and down the roster, LGD is the more talented squad. Specifically, in the mid lane, Tally is a converted top laner, versus Xiye, who had a great series with R7. Kramer has seemed a step behind the rest of LGD and has had many significant missteps in the tournament. His opposite number, Raes, has often been overaggressive and is outplaying in his home region, but has found less success at Worlds. Another bo5 and another chance for LGD to use math to lead me to a win, given a 2k gold lead (minimum), how many times out of five will they blow it? I'd bet on once, so give me LGD to take this one and advance to group C where TSM, Fnatic, and Gen G (one of Peanut's former teams) await.
Top Plays:
- Xiye - MID
- Mark - SUP
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
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5:00 AM: Unicorns of Love (LCL) -170 vs. SuperMassive (TCL)
This match signifies the first time since 2017 that a mid-major region will qualify for the main stage. Last time it was Fenerbache 1907 from the TCL, and the TCL has a chance to go again with Papara SuperMassive. While SuperMassive and MAD beat each other's brains in with blunt objects, UOL sat back in their chairs, watching this like Bond villains plotting their next move. This team in a bo5 will be downright diabolical; we've already seen them play a Swain bot and threaten a Ziggs bot. Gadget and Nomanz have combined to play 47 different champions this year; that kind of flexibility will give them tremendous draft capital. We saw how important the draft was for in the previous best of five, and off the top, you can already see the draft advantages piling up for the side of UOL. For a quick comparison, Zeitnot and Bolulu have played 29 unique champs. No games will be won in the draft for the side of SM this day, and you can guarantee that.
Armut has played an entirely different game at worlds than he had in the TCL, topping his in league kill participation by 17.3% and his kill share by 9.6%. His lane opponent, BOSS, has upped his game for worlds, but not the insane level Armut has. We might get another chance to see the Renekton into Malphite match up that was such a difference-maker in game five, but BOSS is 14-1 on the champion this year and might be able to not crumble under pressure. KaKAO's jungle diff was apparent to everyone as even in games that MAD won, Shadow struggled with his opposite number. I think that the veteran import find the going a bit tougher today facing off with AHaHaCiK. KaKAO will still be the better player, but AHaHaCiK should be better prepared to deal with him due to his experience on the stage.
So much like in yesterday's matchup, I give the top/jungle match up to the side of SUP. Though I believe the gap will be noticeably lessened. On to the mid lane where SUP did a great job of minimizing Humanoids advantages with some Sett picks for Bolulu, allowing him to play in a more supportive role. We may see more of that today as Nomanz will also have the advantage in the lane. UOL compound his flexibility in the draft phase by saving the counter pick for him 80% of the time. I give the advantage mid to UOL, now to the bot duo. Like yesterday, I like the Europeans bot duo better than SUP, but unlike yesterday I don't think UOL will draft themselves into a corner the way MAD did. The individual player's stats and skillsets look very similar to yesterday's five-game series.
SuperMassive, mostly off the back of KaKAO, has been the better early game team, and they lead UOL in first blood, first turret, and gold differential at 15 minutes. UOL has been better around objectives leading in rift heralds, drakes, and barons. The cs numbers, as well as lane and jungle percentages, are very similar for the teams. UOL has been better at sweeping out enemy vision, but other than that, the vision numbers are similar. It took everything SM had to get MAD out of the tournament on Tuesday, and it will be another herculean effort if they can oust UOL on Wednesday. I like UOL here as I don't think SM will be able to run away with these games early, and UOL will not blunder around the map the way MAD did. SM will also likely be at a disadvantage in the draft phase as coach Sheepy will exploit his mid and bot laners flexibility in ways that limited MAD. AHaHaCiK also has a much deeper champion pool than Shadow, which will help with flexibility in the draft phase and countering KaKAO. Unicorns will have side selection in this match, and they could defer and take the red side to further their draft advantage. Remember, the LCL is the only region at the tournament with a better red win rate than blue. Spring regular split was the last time that blue side win rate was higher in the LCL; spring playoffs, summer, and summer playoffs all showed red at a higher rate.
It should be a close match between the two play-in powerhouses, but I like UOL here, probably in a 3-2. Much like yesterday, if UOL does fall behind, they are not afraid to fight their way back into things. They averaged 21 deaths in their losses on the year few though they were. In their recent loss to Talon, they gave over 25 deaths; supermassive is more controlled, averaging just over 17 deaths in their losses. There will be value on the underdogs here as well as they could score nearly equal with UOL in a close series loss while allowing you more potent captain options. I think splitting your exposure is the right play here.
Top UOL Plays:
- Nomanz - MID
- Gadget - ADC
- SaNTaS - SUP
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
Top SM Plays:
- KaKAO
- Armut - TOP
- Zeitnot - ADC
- Snowflower - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - LGD and UOL win. LGD should enjoy a strong early game and turn that into wins even though they may struggle to transition from early to mid-late game. UOL will capitalize on their draft flexibility and solid play all around to avenge last year's loss to Splyce in play-ins; it's just a shame they can't get the direct revenge.
- I like the second set to be more action-packed, and I will have my full stacks from that side. The ownership on this slate will be interesting. I believe LGD will clock in around 60% with SM, probably a small step ahead of UOL as people try to shoehorn MID and ADC captains.
- Legacy will be sub ten percent, which is nearly unheard of on a two-game slate. I think they get dumpstered, but if some of Peanut's early skill check dives come up short, things could get ugly in a hurry vs. an aggressive squad like LGC. LGD is one series removed from needing to have been handed a tiebreaker on a silver platter and still struggling to secure the bag. You know how the good touts say " worth a flyer" in GPPs, but probably not more than one.
- There we go, I covered all my bases and recommended every team at one point or another so we can't possibly lose. Yes! I am invincible.
- Last day of Bo5 today, a short break before four straight six-game slates Saturday through Tuesday to open the main stage. After that, big slates are gone for the year as the groups break down into four days of three two-game slates each before bracket play and bo5s return. All bracket games will take place on consecutive days meaning multi-day slates or nothing at all.
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