League of Legends DFS Picks for 3/27/20 - FanDuel, DraftKings Daily Fantasy LEC

Welcome to RotoBaller's coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Hopefully, you've been following our coverage of the LPL/LCK overnight slates on DraftKings. Today, I am making my debut as an ESports analyst and focusing on the five-game LEC slate that has contests available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Full disclosure here, I am a relative newcomer to ESports as far as being an analyst and I was not someone who was playing LoL contests on a daily basis before COVID-19 ravaged the world and closed the more traditional sports leagues for the foreseeable future. However, I have had a decent amount of success playing these contests and applying some simple strategy and DFS tactics that would apply in other sports (weighing Vegas odds, stacking teams, looking for leverage in GPPs). If you're new to ESports, then I highly suggest playing some smaller contests and dipping your toes in the pool so to speak before diving in the deep end of some of the larger tournaments that we are seeing both sites post.

The LEC is the European league and they play only single games (while LPL and LCK play best of three series). This weekend is the final slate of regular-season games before playoffs begin. While we already know which six teams will make the playoffs, there is still seeding that can change based on this weekend's results. The fifth and sixth seeds start in the losers' bracket, so there are some teams (MAD, Rogue, and Misfits) who will be battling to get that important fourth seed while the top three teams (G2, OG, and Fnatic) vying for the top three spots.

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Today we'll be bringing on our top League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for all the LEC slates on Friday afternoon, March 27th, 2020. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LOL mentor and our RotoBaller lead ESports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!

 

League of Legends DFS Basics

I am stealing most of these tips from our lead analyst, Jason Malmanger. Since LEC contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.

1. Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. 
2. 2. Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
3. In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
4. Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring.  Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
5. Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID.  Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP.  Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.

Now onto the games!

 

Rogue (-700) vs SKG: DFS Targets

Rogue is currently sitting in 5th place and has the easiest schedule this weekend as they face SKG (2-14) in this match and then FCS (5-11) on Saturday. If they win both games, they could potentially move up to fourth place in the final standings and into the winners' bracket for playoffs. They should be motivated to win and have the second-best odds on the slate as they take on the second-worst team in the league. 

ROGUE: Hans sama - ADC, Inspired - JNG, Larssen - MID, and Vander - SUP

All four of these starters for Rogue have identical 69% kill participation rates and are incredibly affordable on FanDuel while being slightly priced up on DraftKings. A full four-man stack is firmly in play on DK, while you'll need to pick just three on FanDuel (or two players if you want to use Rogue in your team slot). SKG has the third most deaths this season and the lowest kill-to-death ratio in the league at .46. This should be an easy win for Rogue and one in which they could pile up kills and rack up fantasy points.

 

G2 (-1400) vs FCS: DFS Targets

This is should be a very one-sided matchup as G2 has dominated the league on the way to a 13-3 record all season and FCS sits at 5-11 on the season. G2 still needs to win this game if they are going to lock up the top seed so I wouldn't worry too much about them being unmotivated here. They are a scary team to fade as they can do a ton of damage to their opponents in any given game.

G2: Caps - ADC, Mikyz - SUP, Jankos - JNG,  Perkz - MID 

Caps is one of the top plays on the slate and stacking him with his support Mikyz is a great way to get some correlation in your lineups as he should be heavily involved in the G2 attack and has the potential to assist on a lot of Caps' kills. Mikyz 74.7% kill participation is second-best on the team and third-best of any SUP on the slate. Jankos is the most expensive JNG on the slate, but boasts a 71% kill participation rate of his own and has shown massive upside this season. He's a sneaky play at the captain spot, as well, as most players tend to go with a MID or ADC at captain.

 

MAD vs Fnatic (-245): DFS Targets

Here we have the only game on the slate that is projected to be a close one as the second place Fnatic team takes on the MAD Lions who are currently sitting in fourth. MAD have the toughest weekend schedule as they face the 12-win Fnatic team in this game and then another elite team in Origen on Saturday. They will be motivated to win this weekend and they risk falling into the losers' bracket for playoffs if they fail to secure at least one victory this weekend. MAD handed Fnatic one of their four losses earlier this season and dominated them in that game with 24 kills to 8. Fnatic still comes in as the slight favorite here, but MAD is riding a two-game winning streak and is really the only underdog we want to consider on this slate.

MAD: Kaiser - SUP, Carzzy - ADC, Shadow - JNG, Humanoid - MID 

I want to target MAD more on DraftKings due to their cheaper prices there, however, I will still have exposure on FanDuel. Kaiser leads the team in kill participation at 76% and is one of the strongest plays at the SUP position. on this slate. Pairing him with his ADC Carzzy makes a lot of sense and adding Shadow or Humanoid into the mix would make for a solid three-man attack. Shadow lead the Lions with eight kills in their first matchup against Fnatic.

Fnatic: Reckles - ADC, Bwipo - TOP 

Reckles is the guy who easily does the most damage for this Fnatic team with a 73.8% kill participation rate. The rest of their production is spread pretty evenly among the rest of the team but Bwipo interests me quite a bit based on his 61% kill participation (4th best at the TOP position) and his affordable price tag.

 

Origen (-500) vs Excel: DFS Targets

Origen is currently tied for second place with Fnatic going into the weekend and they are heavy favorites in this game against a mediocre Excel team. A win here and a loss by Fnatic to MAD would put them into a good position to lock up the #2 seed on Saturday. They should be able to win this game fairly easily and the fact that Excel has the most deaths this season of any team in the league makes Origen an elite fantasy target. 

OG: Upset - ADC, Xerxe - JNG, Destiny - SUP 

Like I mentioned earlier, pairing an ADC with a SUP player is a great way to correlate your lineup and an Upset/Destiny pairing has elite upside here as both have solid kill participation rates at 72& and 71%, respectively. Xerxe is another solid target at JNG and I would strongly consider a double-jungler lineup build with Xerxe and another elite JNG like Jankos.

 

Misfits (-475) vs VIT: DFS Targets 

Our final game here is an elite spot for this Misfits team. They're sitting in sixth place, but have a great chance to move up in the standings as they face the worst team in the league in Vitality, who are only 1-15 on the season. Vitality and Excel both have 239 deaths this season, meaning the Misfits, like Origen, have a great chance at piling up kills in this one and should be able to secure an easy win.

Misfits: Bvoy - ADC, Febiven -MID, Dan Dan - TOP, Razork - JNG, Denyk - SUP

The entire Misfits team is in play here and they are an elite team to stack in my opinion due to their mid-tier pricing. My favorites would be Razork and Denyk, who lead the team in kill participation in addition to the TEAM slot, which is only the fourth most expensive on DraftKings.

 

Summary

1. Play the favorites! (G2 is the safest, and likely chalkiest)
2. Getting the FTC/MAD game right is one way to be different in tournaments.
3. Rogue is one of the best value spots on FanDuel, but they're odds are built into their prices on DraftKings. On DK, both MAD and Fnatic are priced very fairly.

 

Check back throughout the weekend as we'll publish more Esports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.