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BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~75 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~85
ANALYSIS: Can someone explain Leonard Fournette's ADP to me? It feels like the fantasy community is acting like the playoffs never happened. I understand those stats don't count for fantasy, but it's not like they don't matter when assessing Fournette going forward. Yes, Fournette averaged just 11 points-per-game last season and was a middling RB3. He also saw just a 47% snap share as he spent most of the season as Ronald Jones' backup. Fournette took over as the lead back due to a Jones injury and never relinquished it. In the postseason, Fournette averaged a 73% snap share, which led to fantasy point totals of 23.2, 21.7, 18.4, and 23.5.
Using recent historical numbers, a running back needs to hit about 15 ppg to be an RB1. Fournette hit that number over the final two games of the 2020 fantasy season and all four of his playoff games. He also caught four or five passes in each playoff game. Jones was healthy during the Bucs' Super Bowl run, but Bruce Arians stuck with Fournette. The Bucs then resigned Fournette. Why would anything change?
Given that Fournette is on a one-year deal, we can't rule out Fournette getting hurt and Jones doing to Fournette what Fournette did to Jones last year. That's certainly possible and that is a risk you take when drafting Fournette -- but as long as Fournette is the lead back, he has RB1 upside. Right now, he's being drafted as an RB3. Go get him and enjoy the value. In the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, grabbing a running back with big upside on a big offense is an easy pick to make. It's a minimal investment with some serious upside. In short, Fournette is a draft sleeper and you should target him in all formats.
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