RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~20 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~25
ANALYSIS: There's no good explanation for why Fournette is going outside the top-12 running backs right now. He got off to a slow start last season, but that was out of his control. He didn't truly take the reigns of the backfield until Week 4 when he got an 82% snap share. Between Weeks 1 and 3, Fournette only played on an average of 50% of the snaps and averaged just 12.7 opportunities per game.
Things changed after Fournette was handed the backfield in Week 4. From that game against the Patriots through Week 14, he averaged 21 opportunities (14.7 rush attempts and 6.3 targets) on a 70% snap share. Fournette was the RB5 during that stretch, averaging 21.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
And there's room for improvement. Fournette didn't score a touchdown in almost half of those 10 games between Weeks 4 and 14. On the season, he scored 10 touchdowns on 264 opportunities. That's just a touchdown every 26.4 opportunities. In comparison, Austin Ekeler scored a touchdown every 15 opportunities last season. Both guys are on high-powered offenses that were top-five in plays per game in 2021. While Ekeler is certainly in for some negative regression, Fournette, on the other hand, should see his touchdown rate positively regress in 2022.
And for those worried about Rachaad White, don't be. The Buccaneers gave Fournette a three-year extension worth $21 million, with $12 million guaranteed. As long as Tom Brady is the quarterback of this team, Fournette will continue to play a heavy majority of the snaps. And even if White takes some snaps, it's not likely to be anything more than 30% as long as Lenny is healthy. Buy low on Fournette and reap the benefits all season long!
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