RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Day one of the quarterfinals is in the books, and much like we expected, DWG ran through DRX in a remix of their LCK finals sweep.
Having had a day to think about the SNG/JDG matchup, I still agree with my original thoughts, but now we're translating them forward into the next two-day slate. I've included them again here for ease of reference when looking at a new slate on DraftKings.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 6:00 AM ET on Friday, October 16th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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SNG (LPL) +120 vs. JDG (LPL)-170
While the bracket's LPL side doesn't present us with a playoff rematch, we have seen these two teams head to head twice this season. JDG won both sets with a game score of 4-1, but they were much closer than that would indicate. The 2-0 for JDG in the summer split was intense, and SNG held the early lead in both games. The spring match featured 705 while Zoom was still in quarantine, and Haungfeng had just joined a few weeks earlier.
Looking at the summer split stats, the teams are very close early game with JDG leading in first blood and gold differential at 15. SNG answers with leads in rift herald, first turret, and first three turret percentages. SNG also holds the edge in vision numbers, while JDG narrowly holds the better dragon (+6%) and baron numbers (+2%). In groups, SNG had better numbers in ever respect minus rift heralds, but they had a more manageable group draw without having to face DWG twice. I will give a slight edge to SNG on the statistics as I think their ability to prioritize the first turret can get them started snowballing faster than JDG's more lane oriented style.
Top to bottom talent-wise, the teams are very even as well. Zoom is more consistent than Bin, and although Bin has had some highlight-reel plays at worlds, I think the top lane matchup goes to JDG. The current farm heavy jungle meta is incredible for SofM as he is allowed to get ahead of the enemy jungler through efficient pathing and timing of opponents camps. Then when it comes time for SNG to contest a baron or a third drake, he pops out of the jungle ahead in farm and gold, looking to fight. We saw this with his Graves versus G2 in the tiebreaker, where he wouldn't allow Jankos Lilia to farm up the way she needed to. Kanavi is a different beast, though, but I think the current meta makes the jungle match up nearly a tie.
Angel has been maybe the surprise of the tournament thus far as he has shown up in a big way, and I think that's a testament to the strength of the LPL. Yagao is usually a bit of an afterthought on this JDG roster, much like Angel is for SNG, but anyone who followed the LPL this season knows how deadly he can be on Zoey and many other meta champs. The bot duo will make or break the matchup, and that's where I give the edge over to JDG in the most significant way. Loken and LvMao are a step above Haunfeng and Swordart, and even with Swordart's experience balancing Huanfeng's youthful exuberance in the G2 matches, the young ADC got caught out multiple times.
JDG was my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and they were one weird scaling comp away from forcing DWG to a tiebreaker for the first seed in group B. So we have seen how dangerous they can be, and I think if the groups were reversed it would be JDG with the first seed, not SNG. SNG did well to take two of three (and VERY nearly all three) from G2, but I firmly believe that JDG is a step up in competition and that JDG should win this match. It will be very close, and I don't mind taking some SNG plays as they are cheap enough to allow you to fit nearly any lineup configuration you want. SNG could surprise here with an upset or end up pushing JDG to five games, and in that case, might be worth equal amounts in our lineups as they will allow us more expensive TES captain options.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG
- Loken - ADC
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Angel - MID
- Swordart - SUP
- SNG Team
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TES (LPL) -850 vs. FNC (LEC) +475
Come on now; I think we all know what I'm going to say here. TES 3-0 that's it, that's the tweet. Maybe it's not all that easy; the jungle carries a heavy type of meta that we have seen at worlds up to this point favors Fnatic. As a wise man once said, the meta is what the best team is playing. If a team can do whatever they want and just out skill the rest of the world, it is this TES squad.
Looking at the regular season stats won't do us much good as Fnatic were mediocre at best, so let's look into the group stage numbers. Fnatic is the were the more proactive early game team-leading TES in first blood and first turret, while TES lead in rift herald and gold differential at 15 minutes. TES does have the edge in drakes, barons, and vision numbers. If TES get a gold lead early, FNC will be in trouble, but if FNC can force their way to the front, they could have a chance.
Fnatic has stepped up their play tremendously at worlds, but TES has played an incredibly strong league all summer. As a famously wise and powerful bot laner once said, "like, you don't win LPL if you're bad." That little gem is courtesy of Rekkles himself as FNC was surprised by the strength of FPX last year, especially LWX and Crisp. Europe has had great success at worlds the previous two years playing their style of league, and Fnatic is a big part of that. In this matchup, however, their paths to victory are minimal, and as a result, they will lose the flexibility necessary to compete over a five-game set.
We have also seen TES be able to win from behind as they did versus DRX in their second match. With the skill gap in all three lanes, Top is quite likely to win out no matter how the early game progresses. I think this will be similar to Fnatic's last two international meetings with the LPL in best of fives at Worlds. 3-0 by Invictus Gaming and 3-1 by FPX in 2019, in case you don't recall. I like TES to collect the win 3-1, and I think that maybe a bit generous giving FNC one game that Selfmade can carry early and snowball to the victory from there.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- 369 - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - sticking with the JDG 3-2 call, and TES cruise 3-1. Suning is live to win as they benefit from side selection, but I think JDG is more than the sum of their parts and has some nice parts at the end of the day.
- The season-long numbers make this a smash spot for TES, but the tournament numbers (small sample size) show a slightly different story for FNC death per loss. 13 is the number in groups, 20 is the number from summer split one of those is not like the other. TES averages over 19 kills in a win, but I find it's the deaths that correlate more highly with DFS production.
- SNG and JDG both averaged around 17 deaths in their in-season losses, but in groups, that number climbs to 18 and 19, respectively. Again I know small samples but could be the start of a trend.
- Not a lot to go over today, sorry all, but much like the DWG/DRX matchup, there isn't a lot to say in favor of FNC other than they will be in that same 10% ownership range, and their prices will let you access any captain you want from the other side.
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