RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! WORLDS IS HERE! I know I've been tweeting about it for seemingly forever, but this is our Superbowl (with better music production)! Regional strength is much the same as the recently completed EU Masters but on a larger scale. So you'll often find me referencing past Worlds and MSI performances to gauge these regions' relative strength.
It's always up for debate, but generally speaking, LPL is considered the strongest region even after DWG won the last World's title. Thanks to DWG's performance last year, LCK and LEC are right behind them, with the LCK ahead by a nose. From 2013 to 2017, Korea was the dominant force in international play, winning five straight titles and having three straight All-Korean finals. After PSG Talon's showings at last year's Worlds and this year's MSI, they may have set the PCS ahead of the LCS. The rest of the regions come in around the same level of strength. So let's keep this in mind when we're looking at the stats.
Next, let's look at a quick rundown of how our slates will look from a dfs standpoint. We're back to best of one format for the first three days as the play-in stage competitors complete a single round-robin within each group. To start, we'll have the two-game early slate on Tuesday and Wednesday AM, followed by a four-game main slate and possibly a two-game late. Finally, Thursday will feature only a four-game main with no appetizer.
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!The first-place team in each group then auto qualifies to the main stage while the third and fourth place teams square off in a best of five. Those matches' winners will then play another best of five series with the second-place team from the other group, and that gives us Friday and Saturday as a pair of two-game best of five slates to close out play-ins. That's plenty for now; we'll cover the main stage schedule when we get there. Never fear, though; the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, October 5th, 2021. Also, make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger, as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
8:40 AM: LNG (LPL) - 1400 vs. PEACE (OCE)+650
LNG needs no introduction for most LoL dfs players, but a quick recap may be in order. A hot start to the summer split cooled off a bit for LNG as August came around and more top-of-the-table teams appeared on the schedule. Nevertheless, they were able to qualify for the playoffs with an eighth-place finish during the regular split. An inspired run through the playoffs with big wins over TES and RNG allowed them to finish fourth and earn a berth into the LPL's regional qualifier tournament. There LNG downed Rare Atom and Team WE to secure the LPL's final seed to World's.
The OCE's PEACE had a tumultuous second split finalizing this roster in the final week of the regular season. However, they were still able to qualify with the fifth and final seed for the playoffs, and once there posted an impressive 12-2 run to the title, ousting prohibitive favorite and MSI darlings Pentanet.gg. The regular season's drama saw PEACE use seven different lineup configurations, including multiple role swaps in jungle support and mid. Peace should be prepared for their current drama as top laner Apii and backup jungler LeeSA could not travel to Iceland. The team has added Lived on loan from rival Chiefs Esports and former LEC standout Vizicsacsi.
I fear it will be out of the frying pan and into the fire for the OCE's resilient representatives. They open with an LNG squad that will have its first match earlier in the day with Hanwa Life Esports. That could be a close-run thing, and win or lose, LNG likely will come in hot. PEACE has a few things going in their favor as they have better early game stats than does LNG, and their red side win percentage is 70%, but with the strength difference between the two regions, I believe they may generate an early lead, but struggle to close as LNG rounds into form. LNG has a decided vision advantage and is the better team late.
Babip, PEACE's jungler, is a stalwart of the OCE qualifying for World's three straight years, but he will be hard-pressed to keep pace with Tarzan. In addition, I have Ale pegged as one of the breakout players of the tournament, and given the turnover PEACE has experienced in the top half of the map, I think he will shine here. PEACE was one of the slowest teams in the OCE and could limit their deaths in losses. I think everyone will tell you that this is LNG's game to lose, but I don't know how many of them I will have as they were one of the slowest LPL teams. I'll look for small stacks and focus on other games later in the slate for better upside. The safety of an LNG win is appealing for cash games, of course.
Top LNG Plays:
- Tarzan - JNG - led the team in KP% and second in KS% during their playoff run.
- Ale - TOP - led the team in KS% during the playoffs, literally unheard of for a top laner.
- LNG - TEAM - tough to pass up the high percentage win; even with the better early stats for PCE, I believe the level of competition will come to bear heavily in this match.
9:30 AM: HLE (LCK) -650 vs. Infinity Esports (LLA) +390
Hanwa backed into the LCK's regional qualifying tournament after a very disappointing eighth-place finish to the summer split, which saw them fail to qualify for the playoffs. However, HLE's third-place finish in the spring gave them enough championship points to be eligible for the regional tournament. Once in, they made the most of their opportunity downing Sandbox and Nongshim before narrowly falling at the hands of T1 in the finale. They will come into this match, having faced LNG in the tournament opener.
Infinity Esports returns to international play after a disappointing showing at MSI this year. Since then, the roster hasn't changed and remains a veteran squad with Buggax, SolidSnake, and Whitelotus having previous World's experience. They handled their home region, finishing first in both the regular split and the playoffs. They will look to improve on that MSI finish which saw them only win a single game in the group stage.
Much like the first matchup on the main slate, I think the level of competition will come to bear heavily in this game. HLE is not a reliable early game team, and even during their qualifying run, they had the lowest rift herald percentage and second-lowest first turret rate. Infinity, meanwhile, maintained a 78% first turret rate and a 57% rift herald take in the regular season, but at MSI, they were unable to translate that and never took down the first turret in six attempts. If they are unable to generate that early lead versus HLE, they will be in trouble. However, Hanwa has much better vision numbers, and the traditional Korean style of playing for late game and daring INF to beat them early will suit HLE well in this matchup.
Despite the experience of the aforementioned players, Infinity leans on their stud mid-laner, Cody. Within the LLA, he is at the top in CSM, XPD@10, and GD@10, but he was bottom two during MSI. With Chovy opposite him in lane, INF will have to alter their plans, and I could see them shifting their attention to the bottom side. Whitelotus's experience internationally and his MSI stats stacked up much better versus his major region counterparts. Wherever INF tries to attack, I think the gap in mid will allow Chovy to be the first to roam, giving HLE the numbers advantage.
This is another matchup where the outcome is not in doubt, but with Infinity being the slowest team in the LLA I don't know how well HLE players will score here. Even at MSI, Infinity could limit their losses, and their combined kills and deaths per minute were the second-lowest of any participant. Much like LNG before them, the safety of HLE here is undoubtedly, but the upside is lacking.
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - MID - Chovy Life Esports, what more do I need to say.
- Morgan - TOP - the much-maligned top-laner could be a bit on the sneaky side here. Buggax led the LLA in death percentage for top-laners with 27% of his team's deaths, and he brought that up to 31% at MSI.
- HLE - TEAM - with Chovy likely arriving at every objective fight first, I think the HLE team slot might be better than LNG.
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10:20 AM: Unicorns of Love (LCL)+105 vs. DFM (LJL) - 135
The Unicorns of Love return to international play after a very disappointing showing at MSI, which saw them fall in group play to the OCE's Pentanet.gg. After what we saw from UOL at World's 2020, they were expected to get out of group play at the very least, and after that early exit, they added a new ADC and went back to work. However, after losing only two games in the summer split, UOL unexpectedly dropped the first series of the playoffs and had to claw their way back through the lower bracket. They avenged their earlier loss to CrowCrowd and returned to World's, hoping to match last year's results and forget about MSI.
DFM has dominated the LJL, perhaps like no team has ever run a league. Until V3 broke through last year, no other team has represented the LJL in international play since 2017. However, DFM returned to the top of the league this year and showed well at MSI. They split with C9 in the group stage and are carrying some expectations coming into Worlds. Their jungler Steal has received his residency in Japan, which allowed DFM to add stud support Gaeng to the starting roster. The Unofficial LJL English team released a magnum opus on this DFM squad, and you can check that out HERE for more insight into this rising team.
This matchup is lowkey a banger as both teams led their respective leagues in early game rating. The squads are also close in GD@15, first turret, and rift herald percentage, leading their home leagues in all three metrics. DFM has a slight edge in the late game with better vision numbers, but UOL answers with better drake and baron percentages. Overall the teams are statistically very close, and whoever can gain an early edge should be the one to take this home.
UOL will likely look to establish the edge in the mid-lane and get Nomanz rolling. He should have the advantage over Aria in the lane matchup; the junglers and supports should be visiting early and often trying to establish a lead. If DFM can hold the mid laner down, they should have the edge on the bottom half of the map with the veteran presence of Yutapon and Gaeng. Argonavt is only 20 years old and will be making his international debut in this match. He performed well in the playoffs, but the Worlds stage will be another step up in pressure and competition.
This match could go either way, and while I lean to the side of DFM, I think we'll be getting a bit of a roster percentage discount on UOL here. Both teams are projected for higher kill numbers than HLE or LNG. There has been a lot of positive buzz for DFM on Twitter recently, and with the price differential being only 200$ across the board on DraftKings, I think we'll see DFM come in as the more rostered team. Either way, both teams will come in under the more known quantities in HLE and LNG. I do think that we see DFM pick up the win here; they will have the counter pick and are very good on the red side. If neither team establishes the early lead, DFM should have the patience to close out late, but I may end up with more UOL in play due to the discount in both price and roster percentage.
Top UOL Plays:
- Nomanz - MID - an astonishing 709 damage per minute during the summer split and a 36% kill share make him the team's focal point.
- AHaHaCiK - JNG - should be hovering the mid lane to help secure the lead for Nomanz.
- SanTaS - SUP - third on the team in KP% should be out roaming looking to help the team get an early lead.
- Argonavt - ADC - the youngster stepped up his damage and kill output during the playoffs.
Top DFM Plays
- Aria - MID - leads the team in kill share and is third in kill participation.
- Steal - JNG - the KP% leader is third in KS%.
- Gaeng - SUP - a close second in KP% I expect him to be involved across the map.
- Yutapon - ADC - first in damage output and second in kill share should have the edge over the youngster in the lane.
11:10 AM: Galatasaray (TCL) +135 vs. Beyond Gaming (PCS) -175
The final match on the main slate is going to be a good one for gpp players. The new TCL champions Galatasaray unseated last year's Worlds rep from the region Supermassive and their MSI rep Istanbul Wildcats. The TCL has been one of the most contentious regions in recent years. Following years of domination for Supermassive, we've seen four other teams represent the region internationally since 2019. Galatasaray dominated the summer split at 15-3 and continued that into the playoffs losing only a single game en route to the title. While they only have one player with Worlds experience, mid-laner Padden, they are a very experienced roster with some LCK Challenger level imports. Galatasaray will look to improve on the 1-5 record that the Wildcats posted at MSI and avenge the TCL's loss in play-ins last year.
If I haven't mentioned it on Twitter yet, Beyond Gaming is one of my dark horse teams for the tournament. They feature Doggo at ADC, who you may remember subbed in for PSG Talon at MSI. He was an instrumental part of their run to third place in that tournament and should have some fond memories of Iceland. PSG Talon DOMINATED the PCS this year, losing only a single game throughout spring and summer splits, but in summer's playoffs, this Beyond squad beat them 3-2 in the upper bracket and finally lost 2-3 in the grand final. That was a very impressive showing, given the strength of PSG, and I'm hopeful that BYG can keep up that level of performance.
This one should start with a bang as GAL were the best early game team in the TCL, sporting a 62.3 early game rating from Oracle's Elixir, and a gold differential at 15 of 957. BYG may have been second to PSG, but their early game is also excellent with a 70.6 rating and a GD@15 of 2300. We should see the sparks fly early and often here as both teams will contest for herald and first turret, but BYG has the edge in first drake percentage by a wide margin. I imagine they will claim that objective and start a drake stack early with their advantage in the bot lane. Total drakes, baron takes, and vision numbers are all also in favor of the PCS squad. I don't think GAL can get ahead early, and even if they do, we could see BYG fight back with superior objective play late.
Well, we may have saved the best for last, in terms of the pace of play we indeed did. These are my top two projected teams for kills in a win. I'm going to have plenty of this match, and with my undying love for Beyond Gaming and Doggo, I will be centering a ton of lineups around the talented ADC. Galatasaray averages over 20 deaths per loss, giving Beyond Gaming the upside I'm looking for, but they also average 19.52 kills per win. That might make them my sneakiest upside play for large field gpps. With Beyond having a swell of popularity similar to DFM, you can likely get GAL at sub 5% ownership in the second-best spot of the day.
Top BYG Plays:
- Husha - JNG - led the team in both kill metrics in wins in the summer split.
- Maoan - MID - second to his jungler in summer for both KP% and KS%.
- Doggo - ADC - stepped up in the playoffs versus stiff competition to lead the team in kill share at 30.3%, six percent higher than his summer split numbers.
- Kino - SUP - if you're full stacking BYG you'll want to pair Kino up with his ADC.
Summary
- TLDR - LNG, HLE, DFM, and BYG win! The LCK and LPL representatives will surely be popular, but later games may surpass their upside.
- PEACE and Infinity will be the lowest owned by far, but I think UOL and GAL are as low as I will need to go for my dogs on this slate. So unless you're max entering, don't touch those two unless you know Buggax will drop another Teemo game on us!
- The majority of my lineups for this opening slate will center around Beyond Gaming with UOL and DFM. I'll sprinkle in some GAL hedge lineups, too, just in case the swell of Twitter love gets too big.
- Fanduel daring to be different will lock the slate at 7 AM EST and include the LNG vs. HLE opener as well as Red Canids vs. Infinity Esports. I'd probably look to avoid the big LCK/LPL showdown except for maybe Ale as a one-off. Either side of the LLA/CBLOL match looks good, but I like the ceiling for Infinity a bit better, plus RC has a much lower win rate on the red side.
- Good luck out there everyone, I look forward to joining you for the rest of the play-in stage to help introduce some of the lesser-known regions and teams to you!
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