RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Day two went poorly for yours truly, but I did pick three of four main slate matches correctly. C9 pulled an HLE and sucked enough to make themselves optimal, and that hurt since I was counting on HLE sucking the most. PEACE and Infinity went the distance, and unfortunately for me, Cody might not entirely be ready for prime time. However, DFM was clean in winning GAL, restoring some faith into the final day of play-ins.
Today is the final day of play-in group stages and the end of the best of one format for our DFS days until the main stage groups kick-off anyway.
I've explained the qualifications for advancement, and we'll start the best of five elimination matches tomorrow with any tiebreakers being played later today. Then it will be on to the main stage, where the likes of Damwon, FPX, EDG, RNG, T1, and Mad Lions await our qualifiers. So there is plenty more league of legends action waiting for us during the World Championships. Never fear, though; the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 6:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 7th, 2021. Also, make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger, as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
6:00 AM: LNG (LPL) -1400 vs. Infinity Esports (LLA) +650
LNG has done nothing to dissuade me from loving them in the play-in stage and beyond. If this jungle top meta continues to be prevalent, I think they could be a threat to take up SNG's (as an interesting aside, Weibo has bought out the SNG franchise, so we may be seeing them rebranded next split) mantle as the surprise team of this Worlds. Infinity has done its best thus far but has found itself up against it.
LNG's powerful top half of the map will influence this matchup heavily. Their first turret rate increased dramatically from summer and playoffs into the regional qualifier. As a result, they should be able to pressure the first herald and keep this rating high. Keeping Light in the bot lane farming while Iwandy roams will likely be how they go about saving their hyper carry as an insurance policy. We saw something very similar in the PCE matchup.
As I mentioned on the other slates, Infinity has limited deaths in their losses, which will also influence my decisions. I think that LNG should roll in this matchup, and with INF being very slow, I think a quick match versus a slow team should result in depressed scoring. I could be wrong, and we see INF try to go out on their shield in what could be their last game at Worlds this year. I'm willing to fade LNG for the most part in a pace-down matchup stick to skinny stacks or one-offs Ale, Tarzan, or LNG Team. Infinity has upside in the upset and would be the most significant leverage spot on the slate if you're feeling froggy.
6:50 AM: PEACE (OCE) +185 vs. Red Canids (CBLOL) -250
This match is most definitely a spot I'll be targetting heavily today. This game is my highest projected, with PEACE being the top and Red Canids only a third of a kill behind them! Both teams are fighting tooth and nail for seeding here, and we could see that put the brakes on as this will have a bit of a playoff atmosphere to it. PCE sits at 1-3, as does RC, so this match is vital for seeding and side selection between these two squads in a likely upcoming BO5.
Both teams led their playoffs in early game rating, but curiously, they both have a low herald rate (sub 50%) and a high first turret rate. Most of their early action revolves around the mid/top lane, which suits our current meta well. Even with their lower herald rate, I believe the junglers will force the action to the top half of the map early. That's going to be just fine with Guigo as he led the team in kill share during their playoff run.
I worry about RC on the red side, where they only hold a 57% win rate compared to 73% on blue. PEACE has slightly better vision and baron numbers. Based on both teams' playoff runs, PCE has a very slight edge in team stats, and they are the highest projected team on the slate for me.
The overall strength of the CBLOL versus that of the OCE is enough for me to discount that. Therefore, red Canids are my pick to win, and as the second-highest projected team, I will be loading up on them here. A few hedge stacks of PCE may be in order if playing gpps, and maybe even a game stack or two just in case this gets wild.
Top RC Plays:
- Guigo - TOP - led the team in kill share during the playoffs
- Grevthar - MID - like a mini Doinb, loves to get out of the lane and influence the map. He even plays a mean Kled.
- Aegis - JNG - led the team in KP% during the playoff run.
- Titan - ADC - We've seen what he can do thus far in the tournament.
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7:40 AM: DFM (LJL) +120 vs. Beyond Gaming (PCS) -155
DFM restored our faith in them with a nice win over GAL and is in the pole position for the second seed in their group. With a win, they will await the winner of the BO5 from group A between PCE and RC. With a loss, they will fall into a tie with GAL and BYG triggering a series of tiebreakers later today. It's the same story for BYG, just from the underdog side; they need this win to keep themselves afloat. BYG's still the odds on favorite here, but they have fallen off from an opening line of -185.
I often repeat myself with some of these teams, but both DFM and BYG were excellent in the early game during the regular split. Both teams averaged nearly seven turret plates claimed; that's almost a complete turret and a half resulting in a GD@15 for BYG is 2300 and DFM 2400. They are also quite good at holding leads as DFM won 83% of their games when ahead at fifteen minutes and beyond was even better at 86%. DFM has a slight edge in vision numbers, but BYG answers that with higher baron and drake numbers. This match will be tight, and so far at worlds (in a three-game sample, of course), BYG has been the better early game team, with DFM being better late.
This match is shaping up to be one I can skip on this slate. Traditionally the PCS has been far stronger than the LJL, but given their showings thus far, I'm leaning to DFM here. BYG started with the ill-advised top lane swap and have struggled to find their footing in this meta focused on the top half of the map. Given the pace of play favored by both squads, we could see the bot lane be more relevant as the adcs can farm up to nearly full build before participating. If this is the case, Doggo could carry BYG to victory. If I do grab some pieces here, I will keep it to skinny stacks from either side.
8:30 AM: Unicorns of Love (LCL) +290 vs. Cloud 9 (LCS) -450
C9 has the inside track to the first seed here with an expected easy win over the LCL champs. However, UOL will need to pull a big upset here to weasel their way into a tiebreaker scenario. On the other hand, C9 seems to have solved some of their issues from the summer split and could be a surprise team on the main stage if they don't slot into group A. Their other possible landing spot is in group C with RNG, FNC, and PSG that would be a spicy one. C9 has run the odds up massively in their favor. They opened at -205 and are currently -450, and with UOL looking like dog water without Gadget, those could swell further.
Teams are tightening up, given the lack of second chances allowed by this format, but targetting against UOL has been profitable thus far. So while the overall projections have C9 rated lower here, I might override that given the "trend" (if you can call three games a trend) of UOL giving up the goods in their losses. C9 played with their food a bit in the match with BYG, and a similar result could make them optimal again.
Top C9 Plays:
- Blaber - JNG - always ready to carry, and he was second in KP% to Vulcan.
- Vulcan - SUP - led the team in KP% in wins.
- Fudge - TOP - not the best stats, but the top half has been focused during the tournament thus far.
- Perkz - MID - similar stats to Zven during the summer, but given how this plays out, I doubt Zven will be needed much in a game where C9 should cruise.
Summary
- TLDR - LNG, RC, DFM, and C9 win. Red Canids will be my main focus, with a few hedge lineups from the PEACE side of that match. It might even be game stack worthy if you find yourself needing to fill out the final few pieces of a max entry.
- C9 doesn't project very well, but UOL might be firey in their last match at the tournament. Hopefully, this trend of them surrendering DK points will continue. It is probably worth it to have a few C9 lineups and count on a UOL int.
- FD couldn't mess up this slate with odd start timers, but the pricing on C9 is too reasonable to pass up. Have I officially lived long enough to become an LCS fan? Nah, it couldn't be me.
- Alright, everyone, that's it from me. I had a great time talking shit and talking shop on Twitter and Slack the last few days. I'll still be watching and playing for the rest of the tournament, but I won't have time to crank out any more content. I hope you'll show the rest of the Rotoballer team the same love you've shown me these past few days.
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