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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on Rotoballer where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers made minimal changes to their offense this offseason, re-signing Mike Williams to a three-year, $60 million contract this past March. The team replaced veteran tight end Jared Cook with former Seattle Seahawk Gerald Everett. Apart from this addition, only rookie running back Isaiah Spiller carries any fantasy relevance.
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Chargers based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
Fantasy Football Breakout: Gerald Everett
Gerald Everett has previously been touted as a breakout candidate, but he has all the tools to succeed now that he has landed in L.A. He did not stand much of a chance with the Seattle Seahawks last season. However, he did flash for fantasy purposes at times.
Everett finished as a top-12 tight end five times in 2021 on a run-first offense that lost quarterback Russell Wilson for three games. Everett saw the third-most targets for Seattle last season but drew only 62 in total. Seattle did not throw at a high enough rate for Everett to remain consistent for fantasy purposes last season, and losing Wilson due to injury for the first time in his career did not help.
gerald everett. generally electric. pic.twitter.com/IhU780s1LP
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) March 24, 2022
Now, Everett steps into the Chargers' offense as the clear starting tight end in replacement of Jared Cook. Cook was well past his prime last season, yet he finished as the TE16 overall.
| Jared Cook (2021 Stats) | Overall Finish/Total Points Scored | Average Points Per Game | Receptions | Targets | Catch % | Receiving Yards | Receiving Touchdowns | Rank/Total Points Scored in RedZone | Receptions | Targets | Rec. Yards |
| Los Angeles Chargers | TE16 (108.4 pts) | 6.8 | 48 | 83 | 57.80% | 564 | 4 | #14 (30.5) | 3 | 5.2 | 35.3 |
Cook did a decent job with the targets he was given, but he is not the dynamic player he once was. His catch percentage of 57.8% ranked 41st among qualified tight ends, with 67.5% of his targets being rated as catchable. The 5.2 targets he averaged per game were more than Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, Dawson Knox, and Hunter Henry. Herbert threw the ball to the tight end position often, meaning Everett will see a favorable target share in 2022.
Everett has averaged 3.5 targets per game throughout his career and has never had more than 63 targets in a single season. Justin Herbert has targeted his starting tight end 85 and 83 times during his first two seasons as an NFL starter. Everett is due for a target boost and has the talent to excel for fantasy purposes.
Everett caught 76.2% of his passes in 2021 and has a career average of 65.5%. It is a much higher rate than Cook's 57.8% last season, meaning Everett should be able to do more with them than Cook. Everett scored four times last season with only eight red-zone targets, while Cook scored the same amount on 13 targets.
With an increase in targets, both inside the red zone and outside of it, Everett has the chance to leap forward in fantasy production. Heading into his sixth season, Everett has the opportunity to become a post-hype sleeper for fantasy managers.
Tight ends typically take time to break out for fantasy purposes, and Everett has attached himself to one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. He is an upgrade over Jared Cook for the Chargers and should finish much higher than the TE16 overall. With an average draft position (ADP) of 177 as the TE21 off the board in the 14th round, Everett could be the steal of fantasy drafts at the tight end position.
Fantasy Football Bust: Isaiah Spiller
It is tough to pick a bust candidate in this offense, but the honor goes to rookie running back Isaiah Spiller this year. Spiller was the only notable addition to the Chargers' running back room this offseason. After L.A. declined to bring back Justin Jackson during free agency, the team drafted Spiller in the fourth round of this past April's NFL Draft. There is some opportunity for Spiller to produce for fantasy managers in 2022, but it would likely take an injury to Austin Ekeler before you could count on him.
Ekeler handled 49% of the carries for the Chargers last season, with Jackson finishing as the running back with the second-highest total of 16%. Jackson found little fantasy success, finishing as the RB58 overall. He scored 30.2 of his 75.2 total fantasy points in Week 16 when he replaced Ekeler, who had been ruled out due to being placed on the Covid-IR.
During games that Ekeler was healthy, he averaged 12.9 carries per game, while the other backs on the roster combined for an average of 8.2 carries per game. Ekeler is clearly the lead back for L.A., and Spiller will have a tough time generating fantasy points for as long as Ekeler is on the field.
Sure, Spiller will likely take away some goal-line work from Ekeler, but he will not see enough carries on a per-game basis to finish as high as he is being drafted unless Ekeler misses an extended period. Joshua Kelley has been touted as the front-runner to take over backup duties so far, and Spiller is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out for a regular season game or two.
Typically, a team's number two running back would not make the list as a bust. However, Spiller is being drafted on average in the tenth round as the RB40 overall. He is currently drafted ahead of Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Gainwell, and Tyler Allgeier on average.
For context, Rhamondre Stevenson finished as the RB40 overall last season, and that was while sharing the field with Damien Harris and missing five games. Spiller is being drafted near his ceiling, and more than a few running backs that are being taken behind him will likely finish ahead of him if Ekeler remains healthy.
Fantasy Football Lock: Mike Williams
It would be easy to select Keenan Allen as the lock for this list, but Williams has a higher scoring ceiling and is going at an affordable ADP. Williams finished as the WR10 overall in 2021, four spots ahead of Allen. While Allen was more consistent, he did not have as high of a weekly scoring ceiling as Williams.
| Player Name/Overall Rank | Total Points Scored | Average Points Per Game | Total Points Weeks 1-6 | Average Points Per Game (1-6) | Total Points Weeks 8-18 |
Average Points Per Game (8-18
|
| 10) Mike Williams | 208.6 | 13 | 104.3 | 17.4 | 104.3 | 11.6 |
Williams started the season with a bang. He was the WR3 overall before the Chargers' Week 7 bye. He finished as a top-12 wide receiver three times, with two of those finishes being the WR1 overall on the week. However, Williams started to struggle after the team's Week 7 bye. He stated that he dealt with some nagging minor injuries during this time and missed Week 16 after being placed on the Covid-IR. Fantasy managers expected Williams to be a bit boom or bust due to his role in the offense, but he overachieved and smashed his preseason expectations.
Williams struggled down the stretch, opening the return from the bye with a three-week stretch of finishes outside the top-36. He would return to earth and start performing better for fantasy managers, but his performance did not pack the same punch as it did during the first six weeks of the season. With that said, Williams was a steal for those who drafted him. He was taken as the WR48 overall on average in 2021.
Headed into the season at full strength, Williams can finish as a top-12 wide receiver again in 2022. Nothing in the offense has changed, and he is the top red-zone target for Herbert. Williams may not lead the Chargers in targets like Allen, but he does not have to catch as many passes to finish with more fantasy points.
His ability as a deep threat and nose for the end zone makes him the perfect WR2 for any fantasy roster. Williams is currently being drafted as the WR17 overall in the middle of the fourth round. With a top-10 finish under his belt and Allen being over a whole round earlier, Williams is a lock to return value on his ADP as long as he remains healthy.
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