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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Los Angeles Rams.
Can last year's Super Bowl champs repeat? Will Cooper Kupp remain as dominant as he was last season? Did you remember that Allen Robinson was a Ram now?
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Rams based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
Fantasy Football Breakout: No One
That's right: we're going with the surprise here: no one is breaking out on this team.
I initially considered Van Jefferson for this spot, because I think he should have a pretty nice role on this team even with Allen Robinson added. Last season, Jefferson maintained a solid role regardless of who was the No. 2 receiver in LA. In the eight games that Odell Beckham Jr. played, Jefferson averaged 9.99 PPR per game, per RotoViz, and in the nine games that Robert Woods played, he averaged 9.81 PPR.
The thing is that while Jefferson will put up solid numbers, the fact that Cooper Kupp is on this team really limits his ceiling, and for there to be a breakout, we really need there to be some kind of ceiling.
Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. will be fine, with Akers likely to be the lead back and a fine RB2 play, but the nature of this offense limits his upside too. And as you'll see in the next section, there's no way I'm predicting Tyler Higbee to break out.
So, the Rams don't have a breakout player. They are who they are. That's good for the real-life Rams as they attempt to win another Super Bowl, but it isn't good for anyone looking for value.
Fantasy Football Bust: Tyler Higbee
Am I alone in thinking that every season begins with people thinking the Rams are going to finally have good production from the tight end position, only to perpetually be disappointed?
It seems like we might finally be past that, as Tyler Higbee has the ADP of a low-end TE2 this year. Last year, he was drafted as a low-end TE1, and in 2020, he was being drafted as a top-10 tight end.
So, the fantasy world seems to have collectively wised up to the idea of a Rams tight end breaking out. But just in case you're one of the few people who are still out there expecting something from Higbee, let's talk about why you should stop.
We know the Rams love to have a tight end on the field, but they also really love to have that tight end on the field in a set with three receivers. Per Sharp Football Stats, 86% of the Rams' plays last year were run in 11 personnel—three receivers, one tight end, and one running back.
On one hand, it's good to know the team will usually have a tight end. But I foresee two issues with this. First, the Rams have a really good top three receiving group with Kupp, Robinson, and Jefferson, so the tight end position is usually going to be the fourth option.
The other is that because the team rarely plays with two tight ends—per the SFS data, it appears the team played a total of 154 snaps with two tight ends, less than the vast majority of NFL teams—then the upside of the team's tight ends depends on which is on the field. Higbee played 81.1% of the snaps last year for this team, so this wasn't really an issue then. But what it does do is introduce the possibility for Higbee's role to plummet if any other tight end on this team starts to produce. I'm not sure how likely that is considering the other tight ends are Kendall Blanton and Brycen Hopkins, but it's part of the equation for why I'm low on Higbee.
Another reason: I just don't think he's very good compared to other NFL tight ends.
Per PlayerProfiler, Higbee's efficiency numbers vs the rest of the league's TEs are...meh. 25th among TEs in yards per route run. 23rd in fantasy points per route run. And while he was 13th among tight ends in fantasy points per game for the position, the Expected Fantasy Points per Game metric that the site has had him sixth, so he underperformed expectation by about two fantasy points per contest.
Higbee is fine. But the Rams targeted the tight end position just 94 times last year, which is 15.6% of their total targets. Only four teams targeted the position a lower percentage of the time, per FantasyPros. I just don't see a world where he's worth playing in fantasy as anything other than a bye week fill-in, and that'll only be if he gets a really good matchup.
Fantasy Football Lock: Cooper Kupp
This one's obvious.
Kupp is arguably the most reliable receiver in the NFL. Per PlayerProfiler, he was 14th in the NFL in true catch rate last year and was first in yards after the catch and yards per route run. He doesn't drop passes, and then once the ball is in his hands, he's a crafty runner who makes positive plays. Throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp leads to good things.
And why would that change this year? Allen Robinson's addition? Nah. I don't believe Robinson has any noticeable impact on Kupp's performance. He's pretty much always had one or two other good receivers beside him since he arrived in Los Angeles. Last year, he had two of them: Robert Woods for a while, and then Odell Beckham Jr. as soon as Woods got hurt. And what did Kupp do? Scored more fantasy points than any other wide receiver.
Provided he stays healthy, Kupp is a lock for at least 150 targets, which he'll turn into over 100 receptions. He might not lead the NFL in receptions, yards, and touchdowns again this year, but why can't Kupp catch 120 passes for 1,500 yards in this offense? He's the safest wide receiver you can take in fantasy and is worthy of a first-round pick.
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